Just named.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by Perth TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1841 UTC 25/01/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 107.8E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: west [280 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 26/0600: 16.2S 107.9E: 085 [155]: 050 [095]: 982
+24: 26/1800: 17.1S 108.5E: 105 [195]: 060 [110]: 976
+36: 27/0600: 18.0S 109.1E: 125 [230]: 065 [120]: 972
+48: 27/1800: 18.6S 109.5E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 965
+60: 28/0600: 19.3S 110.0E: 180 [335]: 075 [140]: 960
+72: 28/1800: 19.7S 110.3E: 205 [380]: 075 [140]: 959
REMARKS:
The low level circulation centre has moved under the deep convection. A shear
pattern analysis gives a DT of 3.0. The system has developed over the last 24
hours giving a MET of 3.0, PAT agrees, resulting in CI of 3.0.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is likely to move south southeastwards over the next 72
hours and slowly intensify as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The
vigorous monsoon trough has added some uncertainty to the development and
movement of the system.

Relatively shallow SSTs may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if
it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

By that track map it's gone a bit to the wnw

Welcome Tropical Cyclone Iggy it's has develop over night into a cat 1 Tropical Cyclone this morning.

There is a %50 to %50 chance this one may become a Severe Tropical Cyclone cat 4 or cat 5 Severe Tropical Cyclone in the next few days.

Just some things to keep a watch on over the coming up weeks.

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Perth
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Issued at 2:47 am WST Thursday 26 January 2012. No Tropical Cyclone Advice is current for this system.



Community Threat Past Cyclone Details
  Warning Zone - Gales within 24 hours
  Watch Zone - Gales from 24 to 48 hours
  Past Location and Intensity Number
  Past Track and Movement
Current Cyclone Details Forecast Cyclone Details
(at 24 and 48 hours from issue)
  Current Location and Intensity Number
  Very Destructive Winds
  Destructive Winds
  Gale Force Winds
  Forecast Location and Intensity Number
  Very Destructive Wind Boundary
  Destructive Wind Boundary
  Gale Force Wind Boundary
  Most Likely Future Track
  Range of Likely Tracks of Cyclone Centre
The forecast path shown above is the Bureau's best estimate of the cyclone's future movement and intensity. There is always some uncertainty associated with tropical cyclone forecasting and the grey zone indicates the range of likely tracks of the cyclone centre.

Due to the uncertainty in the future movement, the indicated winds will almost certainly extend to regions outside the rings on this map. The extent of the warning and watch zones reflects this.

This product is designed for land-based communities; mariners should read the coastal waters and high seas warnings.


Remarks:

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is a Category 1 system and has been moving slowly west. It is expected to move to the south southeast over the next 72 hours, bringing it towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however coastal communities near the North West Cape, including Coral Bay, Exmouth and Onslow may experience gales during Saturday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara and on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Carnarvon and Karratha should listen for the next issue.

Name:  Tropical Cyclone Iggy

Details:
  Time (WST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 2 am January 26 1 15.7S 107.8E 110
+6hr 8 am January 26 1 15.8S 107.7E 130
+12hr 2 pm January 26 2 16.2S 107.9E 155
+18hr 8 pm January 26 2 16.7S 108.2E 175
+24hr 2 am January 27 2 17.1S 108.5E 195
+36hr 2 pm January 27 3 18.0S 109.1E 230
+48hr 2 am January 28 3 18.6S 109.5E 280
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 9:00 am WST Thursday

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:03 am WST on Thursday 26 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Perth

Tropical Cyclone Iggy (Category 1) was located at 2 am WST near 15.7S 107.8E,
that is 960 km northwest of Exmouth, moving west at 5 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy is a Category 1 system and has been moving slowly west.
It is expected to move to the south southeast over the next 72 hours, bringing
it towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however
coastal communities near the North West Cape, including Coral Bay, Exmouth and
Onslow may experience gales during Saturday. Rainfall is likely to increase on
Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara and on the west coast north of Cape
Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 am WST.

That should be very soon the next update.

Happy Australia Day All!

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST
Issue Time: 0600 Thu 26 Jan 2012 WST Next Issue: 0900 Thu 26 Jan 2012 WST

Satellite imagery overnight shows TC Iggy continuing to slowly intensify.
The increasing organisation of the system has resulted in the accuracy of the location of the system improving to moderate.

Recent satellite imagery is showing Iggy starting to shift t0 a southwest track The consensus of the computer models indicate the system should continue to recurve and shift to a south to southeast track during the day on Thursday.

The environment for development is expected to remain favourable for the next few days and as a consequence TC Iggy is forecast to continue to intensify, and expected to reach category 2 later today and category 3 later on Friday.

A strong monsoonal flow to the north and east of the system will bring unusually high seas and swell to the Pilbara and especially West Kimberley offshore and coastal areas during the next few days.

anybody have any modeling of this storm apart from the bom forcasts? would be interesting to see some.

happy australia day to you too weathergrrl. and to the rest of you all

Just out Latest Track Map heading SE








Tropical Cyclone Iggy has recurved and is now moving southeast towards the west Pilbara coast at around 9 kilometres per hour.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however gales may develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of a strong monsoonal flow.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities near Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

If you go to our site www.ozcyclonechasers.com we have a couple of video outlooks released every night at about 9:30 of particular interest is the last couple of minutes of the second part which shows all modelling combined and gives you probabilities for impact. Tonight's update is even better as we hone right in on Iggy and give you real strike probabilities. So we upload that at about 9:00 - 9:30PM (Qld time/7:00PM WA) on our Oz Cyclone Chasers page.

hope that helps

Could Iggy go more East than what is forecast?

Possibly.

Its more likely to NOT make landfall, than to actually make landfall, however the possbility of the actual system affecting the coast is still there.

The ozcyclonechasers video update will show maps of strike rate probabilities as nitso mentioned

thanks

There was already a thread open where this system was being spoken about.

At the moment it's expected to get to within 70nm of the NW Cape then turn SW and head away from the coast. Anything is possible and BOM have said this/.

Still plenty of rain and storms for us out of the Monsoon trough!

Yeah I know.

I am hopping some one can re edit this pages to this Tropical Cyclone Iggy WA - (SIO) 24/01/12 - General Chat ??

That would be very great this one well could be a big one.

Just like they did with the Severe Tropical Cyclone yasi.

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 10:55 am WST on Thursday, 26 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Perth

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Coral
Bay.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 1 was estimated to be
850 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
990 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving southeast at 9 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.

The cyclone is expected to intensify steadily as it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy has recurved and is now moving southeast towards the west
Pilbara coast at around 9 kilometres per hour.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Thursday or Friday, however
gales may develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday.
Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal parts of the Pilbara, west
Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 108.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 85 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 986 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Thursday 26 January.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Whim Creek and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

We are experiencing technical issues with disseminating some products. These are
being worked on and we hope to have all products disseminating properly this
afternoon. Please refer to www.bom.gov.au if possible.Cyclone advices and State
Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

WOW. Just had a sneak peak at a mates private work site from BOM and Iggy has a nice CAT 4 label on him with a very straightline focus for a coastal crossing. There will have to be one mother of a ridge to develop to recurve that fella back to the west. Especially if he is getting up into the CAT 4 levels he may have a deeper steering influence. Not sure what that will be but This NW monsoon pumping to its North is only going to favour that strengthening SE push compared to the new ridge coming through.

A bit like whats represented in this image. Monsoon = big fella. Little fella = ridge. Who is going to win out. lol

BOMS talk of cooler waters aiding in system weakening? I am not convinced of this. The NWest CAPE has been baking in sun for months including temps up to 48degrees. I can understand if Iggy heads well down the coast he will surely hit cooler waters but anywhere from Onslow to Coral bay is still up around the 28-31 degree mark.

Nasty. Recurve is also mentioned but with model discrepancy as to this happening puts some doubt into their potetnial projected path and error margins.