Gday everyone!

Well, after what seems to have been a mostly quiet January across Victoria, it looks like there's a change in the wind. Severe weather seems to be heading our way at last, and about time too, with conditions reallys starting to dry out, which is bad news when it comes to bushfires

That massive low pressure area over NSW/ACT and QLD looks set to slide southwards over the next couple of days, and is predicted to extend into the western region of the State by around Saturday night into Sunday. At the same time, a cold front and associated polar low over the Southern Ocean are also heading our way, reaching the Southwest by around Sunday.

A humid northeast/northerly airflow will sweep across Victoria from Friday onwards, ahead of a cooler southwest change on Sunday evening. Melbourne is expected to hit 29C, 31C, 29C, and 20C from Friday to Monday, while Mildura should reach 35C, 30C, 32C, and 26C during the same four-day period.

Cloud increasing with showers/rain developing on Saturday, mainly on and north of the Great Dividing Range, thunderstorms likely over the northwest.

Rain areas and thunderstorms increasing across much of the State on Sunday, heavy falls possible over the Northeast, becoming cooler during the evening as the southwest change moves through.

Hope we get some good soaking rain and storm action from this system!

Have a great Australia Day tomorrow everybody!

Thoughts on whats actually going to happen in central areas? I'd assume mostly embedded cells in a lot of rain, but who knows.

Well ACCESS suggesting 40-60mm widespread from Sunday arvo to late Monday morning, where as GFS 5-10mm.

Thanks for starting the thread Aussie Tornado - this was overdue.

The persistent dip well into Central Aus has been teasing us for most of the week. Pleasing to see the BoM are now thinking that Vic will come into play on Sunday (also managed to make our local news forecast this evening). Going to be one of those curly events where a place in NE Vic may get 50mm+ while we'll remain bone dry.

We had some chunky Cu trying its hardest to tower up just east of the valley this afternoon with one managing to drop a shower out of it. Interestingly this was tracking in a SE-NW direction-symbolic of where the trough is and its influence over us at the moment.

These past 2 weeks have been fantastic for road construction in and around Sale - a sprinkle of rain will do the trick to help with suppressing the dust.

Watching with great interest over the next few days.

yeh even better if we get some thunderstorms thrown in the mix.
Thanks for the run down on things AT, I like reading everyones interpretations of how it may all unravel.

No worries Peng!

Yeah we're certainly in need of some moisture, and some more storm action if possible

I hope my area in the Dandenong Ranges gets a nice soaking (as well as Melbourne's catchments, 50-100mm would be ideal if possible)... but it looks like I and my girlfriend are in the firing line for some very nasty weather in coming days up in NSW/ACT, we're heading to Sydney on Friday for about a week, I won't be surprised if the area gets drenched with as much as 100-200mm, but that's for the NSW/ACT thread.

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Access for Monday

Mmmm looking to be maybe a shared watering for all over the state.

Then again look at GFS and you'll see a 40mm difference to that model.

Cheers Thunderunder! Sorry for not noticing your comment earlier, my bad

Hope you guys have an awesome Australia Day tomorrow, and can get some action and decent precipitation from this system.

I god damn lol'd at Today Tonight, tune in to see why chances of getting struck by lightning are higher then ever...right because lightning has suddenly developed human seeking missiles, what a joke of a show.
Anyway at the actual topic I'm interested to see who will agree with each other, ACCESS or GFS, Or are they going to balance themselves in the middle?

lmao, don't watch that trash (or aca) for that exact reason, they just blow [censored] out of proportion to sucker people in. We have a higher chance of getting struck by lightning now? wtf? The only reason i could legitimately think for that to be true is there are more people on the earth now and even then when you average out the number of people per strike the difference over the last couple of hundreds of years is probably marginal. I'm sure they probably gee'd it up as a sign of climate change, ey?

probably something like that meso, but if they actually bothered to research they'd notice that the fatilitys are lower then ever, half as many in 2011 for America as 2010.

The "will it make it down or wont it make it down" dance continues.... CMC has ganged up with GFS saying it wont, EC 1/2 way and AccG is bullish.....->



We'll all be hanging out for the updates from now till Sunday eh?

I note the EC progs 12mm for Maffra on Monday, then 26mm more on Thursday!

Big difference from GFS and ACCESS, GFS saying it will slide way too far east to really effect Melbourne, but as you can see from that model there COULD be some serious rainfall, im talking February 4th last year like. Maybe not as quickly though.

Petros, The amount of rainfall from this map looks to me like over 60 ml in the Central area.
Am I reading that correctly ??? I hope it isn't that much, always causes flooding and ongoing issues. Why it has to be all or nothing I will never understand. They are predicting the humidity to rise as well. Hope there are no severe thunderstorms, I know many on here love them but honestly after having our car written off with the last hail one on Xmas Day and the many houses around here still waiting on insurance for repairs of roofs, I hope they are not too severe.

I'd imagine it'd go down a bit Katyer, they're being very agressive on their latest runs but imo it's more likely then not going to follow the GFS prediction of it sliding eastwards. Interesting to see the BSCH models aren't going for any storms in central areas, that should change to possible but they're normally very agressive, perhaps they're thinking it'll be more of a rain event like in SEQ and NSW? Not that it happens very often when it comes from SEQ but it could be possible.

Katyer - yep you're reading the progged rain off that chart right. Two things to note when you read these WZ supplied charts, the rain quantity is a 24 hr accumulation, and always check the end time for the chart (ie. if its an 11am chart then the bulk of the rain could have fallen the day before and may not necessarily mean that it will be raining on the date displayed on the top RHS of the chart).

Re supercell thunderstorms, I've never experienced one and you've had a monster that many can chase for years before experiencing! With that experience, coupled with the scare and money loss you wore along with it - you are well entitled to be a bit jaded for upcoming storm prospects!!

For us today, fine calm 32.8 C until the seabreeze arrived at 4:40pm .a great afternoon for water skiing as I’m sure Pengaz will endorse!

Some say Sunday others monday of the Bulk of system ( rain or not to cross over and we receive change ) .
Another says rain as early as Saturday .......
Katyer as Petros has pointed out , access is going for most falls between 11pm Sunday - 11 Pm Monday ....

I have a crane lift Monday , so am up in the Air to push to cancel or postpone it untill Tues . unfortunately its not just the Crane crew , you've got council , traffic control and the works .

Could be windy and Dry too .

Makes it hard .

Have been watching each Run like a Hawk ....

EC keen for Monday morning into afternoon. Perhaps 15-30mm. GFS showed interest in today' 00z run. However models don't know if they're Arthur or Martha when an injection of tropical moisture comes down south.

Give it another 48hrs.

South Australia will definetly get some thunderstorms, as for Melbourne the one thing we can be certain of is at least a little rain and a change.