i 2nd that comment

Please explain WHY you think the "main show" as you call it is over for SE QLD?



I agree with you also Hinzey .. I know who to listen too and who NOT to listen too - so unless 1 of the people who I listen too and trust comes out and says "it's all over" then as far as I'm concerned there is still a threat ..

Pity no one told the storm that dumped nearly 50ml in my gauge last night that it was all over.

I still see the potential for some significant flash flooding today if we get some sun for long enough. There's some high cloud to the NW in the satellite imagery that looks like it wants to thicken up and spread SE... but even if it does it may still leave southern SE QLD in sun. The ground is obviously saturated and we could easily see CAPE of 1000-1500 today, maybe even closer to 2000 and with a lot of moisture left in the low levels. The steering flow is very light from the NW so nothing is going to be going anywhere fast (but it may get too cluttered too). Above the main steering layer (700-500mb) the shear really starts to increase so I think we'll see rain areas spreading SE from the larger storm complexes, which may shut down or take the edge off convection on the coast? But convection on the coast may get going late morning/early afternoon before this happens too. Definitely the potential for some more 'extreme' flash flooding if a storm sits over a saturated area for long enough... but it's just a matter of wait and see I guess! With the public holiday I hope anyone chasing storms today takes this into account and takes extra precautions.

It's quite clear out here in Toowoomba, with the sun warming everything up nicely. If it's anything like this further out west, we could potentially see storms today, is that correct?

As this event has now shifted significantly to the west and is forecast to affect a much larger area than SEQ, I have started a new thread here on the Tropical/Central Australia forum:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1063985#Post1063985

Or perhaps the mods can move this thread to that forum for continuity. Thanks.

Newbie question... Why, if the event has shifted significantly to the west, is there a massive stationary storm sitting of the Brisbane coast. Am I correct in saying if that moves west then SEQ is in for a very tough time? Or is that an impossibility?

wrong place

1st of all welcome to the fourms

there is a monsoon low that is currently in the NT that is forcast to move through western QLD during the wekend hence why the focus has chifted to the west for the time being

That has nothing to do with the monsoon low which hasn't even entered Qld yet. That activity you refer to still has everything to do with the upper trough to our west which has affected our weather all this week.

ahh yes in reading it again my bad yes you would be correct if that stuff off the coast moves west we would be in for a rought time but it should stay off the coast as we are in a northerly wind flow atm

Hmmm seems GFS don't agree with you and reckons the best is yet to come

Hey Guys,
Haven't posted for a very long time, still been lurking, but this event may have brought me out of the closet - so to speak

Just looking at the Darwin radar and at a few charts and sat pics. I am seeing this monsoon low adopting a more easterly track. If that is the trough line you can see on the sat pic that is running nw to se - down to the Fraser coast area - I am having difficulty understanding how BOM & GFS puts the low so far west in its forecast

Any thoughts from those who know a lot more than I do?

Oh.... just started light rain here in Yandina again.

Mark

Inclemet, this thread is for se qld and ne nsw, if you want to start one elsewhere feel free on the subject of central western qld floof potential, but again, this is a discussion for se qld/ne-nsw, thanks

Well, poor hubby is having fun trying to get back to work. Got woken up this morning by a phone call telling him he had better hurry if he was going.

Off he goes, nearly an hour north to find the road closed. He is now backtracking that hour and heading hour and half south to try that way.

It will be a bloody long trip for the poor fella yet.

Bring back the intelligent analysis... And quit to sniping and trolling!! Terrible to read through and reflects badly on those who post it! Manners poeple...

One point to ponder with the monsoon low heading SE... With so much saturated ground and more to come, add in sustained strong winds and we will see a lot of tree damage... Water can cause damage but so will the wind with strong sustained winds.

Seeing as though there is a big flood potential for inland queensland i personally dont see what the problem is with a new thread being created in the tropics. If im not mistaken the low is coming through the tropical interior.

Good work Inclement.

Thanks Trav.

We have had moderate rain falling in Coolum for the last hour and a half. Band is from Tewantin to Maroochydore. Do we have some sort of a convergance in this area

Yes, sorry no offense. Clem has it right because the forum is reasonable to have separated threads for different regions. Let alone for mix up with other members.

Jenzari, theres already a thread for today discussion. This thread starts tomorrow. At the moment it just the outlooks.