#1063635 - 25/01/2012 18:42
SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
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Weather Freak
Registered: 8/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
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Guys,
The bom have opped their forcast to rain for these days. With the low from NT heading through QLD, this could result in some big falls
Edited by Seabreeze (31/01/2012 11:59)
Edit Reason: Extended dates. Due to likely continuation of event in areas of NE NSW
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#1063637 - 25/01/2012 18:44
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: paulcirrus]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 8/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
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Should read bom have upped their forcast :
Friday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 28
Saturday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 26
Sunday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 28
Monday Showers. Min 22Max 28
Tuesday Showers. Min 23Max 28
Wednesday Showers. Min 23Max 28
Didn't expect this forcast, but the models are bringing the low closer to se qld compared to yesterday
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#1063645 - 25/01/2012 18:50
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: paulcirrus]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
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here we go again sheesh if this comes off this could have some major problems with phase one soaking everything
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook https://www.facebook.com/SunshineCoastWeather The page to go to for your up to date weather information and warnings.From Southern Capricornia to Northern Brisbane.
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#1063695 - 25/01/2012 19:44
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: paulcirrus]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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Should read bom have upped their forcast :
Friday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 28
Saturday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 26
Sunday Rain. Local thunder. Min 21Max 28
Monday Showers. Min 22Max 28
Tuesday Showers. Min 23Max 28
Wednesday Showers. Min 23Max 28
Didn't expect this forcast, but the models are bringing the low closer to se qld compared to yesterday What models? If anything, EC has now joined with GFS in moving the low further away from SE QLD into central QLD and NSW. They will see the massive falls, we will not.
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#1063701 - 25/01/2012 19:53
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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Latest EC/GFS have no more than 200mm tipped for SEQ.
Now, even if you were to play Murphy's law (assume they've under estimated by 100mm and keeping in mind catchments are saturated), I think this event just gone was the bigger event. Once again, models can change e.g. last week's event, GFS's apparent underestimation of totals in some areas, and until recently, models predicting a bullseye in SEQ.
If anything, the low is moving further away, with the major rain expected to be around Coffs Harbour. I'll be interested to see what happens, although no flood of biblical proportions like that which was predicted a few days ago.
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.
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#1063716 - 25/01/2012 20:09
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Lewis]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 9/03/2009
Loc: bris
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Look like big event over for now but thunderstorms can bring good totals, still building out west from trough. Good totals look like wet season kicking in.
Models may pick up let wait and see may change quick, last year it looked after then bang.
Have not checked models lately so I check later, and sat images to see what coming.
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#1063739 - 25/01/2012 20:43
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Lewis]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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Latest EC/GFS have no more than 200mm tipped for SEQ.
Now, even if you were to play Murphy's law (assume they've under estimated by 100mm and keeping in mind catchments are saturated), I think this event just gone was the bigger event. Once again, models can change e.g. last week's event, GFS's apparent underestimation of totals in some areas, and until recently, models predicting a bullseye in SEQ.
If anything, the low is moving further away, with the major rain expected to be around Coffs Harbour. I'll be interested to see what happens, although no flood of biblical proportions like that which was predicted a few days ago. Exactly this. The main show is over for SE QLD.
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#1063753 - 25/01/2012 21:01
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 8/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
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This is right, but rain periods are due back. Not saying anything of how much, but the fact it is an interesting situation to watch.
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#1063755 - 25/01/2012 21:06
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 19/01/2008
Loc: tweed heads
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why the change to 3 days of rain by the BOM if its all over ??? At 630 it was only rain on Sat . Whilst I dont think we need any more rain , even another 200 mm will cause chaos especially if its more widespread .
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#1063757 - 25/01/2012 21:09
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: lookin]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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No one said it was "all over", just that the next bout of rainfall will not come close to the recent falls. A widespread 200 mm of rain over a couple of days is a decent fall, but nothing to get too fussed about.
Honestly, need to face the facts here. I love extreme weather, but there's not point getting hyped up over something that isn't really 'extreme'. Or perhaps last January has just set the standard so high for extreme weather that nothing comes close...
Edited by Nature's Fury (25/01/2012 21:10)
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#1063768 - 25/01/2012 21:23
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 17/01/2012
Loc: Clayfield (Brisbane)
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I don't think 'widespread' falls of 200mm is just 'decent'...
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#1063771 - 25/01/2012 21:29
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Brentus]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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A widespread fall of 200mm would create chaos... just wait til this monsoon low comes down then you'll be eating your words. Let's also not forget about the potential cyclone which EC has flying towards SE QLD in early Feb, and we all know how accurate it is when it comes to TC's
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#1063774 - 25/01/2012 21:38
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Flood]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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No c'mon seriously. 200 mm over a couple of days would do nothing except for perhaps maybe cause some flash flooding in the usual places at the very very worst. And this 'cyclone' will most likely be bounced away to the south-east, even BOM feel strongly that it will not make landfall at all (although cyclone paths are notorious to predict). All these 'worries' and prognostications of doom ignore how the catchments work and the required amount of rainfall to cause a serious situation.
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#1063779 - 25/01/2012 21:43
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Flood]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 9/11/2011
Loc: Morayfield SEQ
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so true, even 30mm would cause alot of runoff due to the ground being so saturated, if this 'low' goes inland which is being forecasted, doesnt mean were not gonna get much, it would have the monsoonal trough around wide bay area as south Brisbane storms mentions in there predictions as well as the BOM.. its quite an event, and should be closely monitored, the rain amounts could be very well the same to what we just had, possibly more.
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#1063785 - 25/01/2012 21:48
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 28/01/2010
Loc: Kingaroy
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well, if this cyclone hits 200mm will become quite possibly 700 or even a 1000mm judging by the size of the system that EC is progging, SEQ is very overdue for a tropical cyclone crossing, I just hope people take note, I also noticed La Nina is showing signs of strengthening again, so the rain we're seeing now may only be a taste of what's to come.
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#1063787 - 25/01/2012 21:53
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Nature's Fury]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 8/10/2007
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And this 'cyclone' will most likely be bounced away to the south-east.............(although cyclone paths are notorious to predict) Bit of a contradiction there..
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#1063798 - 25/01/2012 22:02
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Flood]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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Mentioning a trend is not a contradiction.
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#1063799 - 25/01/2012 22:02
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Chris Stumer]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Burleigh Waters, Gold Coast
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well, if this cyclone hits 200mm will become quite possibly 700 or even a 1000mm judging by the size of the system that EC is progging, SEQ is very overdue for a tropical cyclone crossing, I just hope people take note, I also noticed La Nina is showing signs of strengthening again, so the rain we're seeing now may only be a taste of what's to come. I havent seen these models, where is the area that its expected to impact? and what dates are we looking at? Thanks 
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#1063800 - 25/01/2012 22:04
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW storms & rain event : 27 Jan - 2nd Feb 2012
[Re: Purplestorm]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
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This 'cyclone' is days and days out, which makes it only worth discussing speculatively. There is not model agreement, in fact latest GFS has a very weak low spawning in a different area of the Coral Sea. So there are no 'dates' and 'target areas'.
This is why so many objective and knowledgeable weather analysts like RW, Scottie, Anthony, Jeff and others don't even bother posting regularly during weather events anymore beyond a rare post in the technical thread. Instead of benefiting from their perceptive and often accurate insights, we get a lot of hype and spam. It really is quite frustrating.
Honestly we need the mods to implement a waiting time between posts just so that people think before they post and don't write "omg is it going to hit me", "when will the rain hit", "its going to flood all over again". It would be fantastic to see the forums return to the pre-Jan 2011 where weather events were discussed with passion, but also intelligence.
Edited by Nature's Fury (25/01/2012 22:13)
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