This is a high tropical moisture infeed event.
easterly tough-upper low near SA- tropical surface low to NE.
Front approaching. Intense low eventually forming over VIC-TAS
Sun-Mon.
Sped up now on GFS arrives PM Friday now
Likely big precipitation storms 30 to 80mm with biggies.
initial ene steering winds, then to SE then to sw after low forms vic-nsw. Should be great value by the look.
Most places should get some showers and storms of 5 to 20mm, act 25 to 30mm isol 30 to 80mm is my tip. On and east of ranges best by the looks
Cheers

Dave and I are gonna go up Riverland on Friday. If it wasn't for tennis Sat arvo, we would probably spend the whole weekend up there as well....

Beauty, I might catch up with you after work Friday! Better get everything ready!

Typical. I fly out of the country on friday. I should do that more often, that way you will get more storms.

This is what I was fearing from looking at models over the past few days...but looks very likely now. Saturday the pick of the days. If anyone remembers Xmas Day 1999, it probably will be a very similar setup to that. Easterly dip, strong e/ne feed and big afternoon convective thunderstorms with heavy dumping loads and probably some hail about in stronger cores.

Going to be a very solid event...and the plains can often do better than areas further east because they have the best seabreeze assistance.

TS

What are then chances of the LSE getting anything out of this weather event during Saturday arvo/night im hoping for a decent storm event to get rid of my storm deprivation syndrome

some nice storms north of ceduna, what are the chances of adelaide getting a decent storm this weekend?

Very Good Epthunda! might not even have to go for a drive

i hope your right aztech wouldnt mind a ripper storm in adelaide for once, i hope you get something over our way to

probably right up north but we'll see, goodluck

Could this be my first actual sucessful storm chase!? Bloody hope so, Thinking might go Riverland way Saturday some time, 4x chases basically empty handed so far GRRR

When it doubt, always look for that big green Thunderstruck post No offence to Tim, SD, Unstable, Nathano, Markus and bd, I bloody love reading all of your forecasting posts (one of the main reasons I come here) but TS is pretty much a forecasting machine of sorts...

Yeah need to actually get off my arse and do some chasing this time. I've got absolutely nothing to do this weekend so no excuses.

Good to hear from someone who doesn't always seem to position themselves perfectly angre. I'm utterly [censored] at chasing storms but figure it's something that takes some practice.

Happy Australia day!1

Yeah looks like some nice tropcial infeed from the north and east going to dump on us. Weather it be good strong convective storms or just RAIN, we will see. I'd like to think dumping thunderstorms actually, preferably, more likely.

Just checked OCF and nothing yet of any substantial forecasting with saturday 2.6 mm & sunday 6.0 mm as of this morning. I'd expect that to jump sustantially by friday.
Weatherstation has yet to signify rain. It's actually tending SUNNY for now. Yeah we'll get lots of that over the next few days.

You won't get storm rainfalls on OCF, etc WG generally, so those models will often miss isol to sct heavy storm rainfalls on their predictions.

I know how you feel, the last 3 chases have come up empty handed as far as lightning photos go as they were either rained out or we were in the wrong place at the wrong time. I'm going to be at my property near Mannum on Sat, so good starting point for any chase.

You may get lucky this time RS in the LSE on Sat arvo and Sun arvo for a change. LIs are reasonable near you.
And all of eastern SA for that matter. High tropical moisture-high rainfall storms are likely. Lots of lower cloud outflow shelfs-morning glory type stuff too likely imo as Dps are likely to be tropical high as from QLD-NSW flood area

My take: As easterly wind steering, likely places are Riverland and Flinders Friday PM, moving SW overnight(but weakening overnight as normal)
As trough moves west and moisture moves west, Anywhere ON & east of Eastern Eyre Pen on sat & sun.
Usual areas eastern EP, Upper YP, Lower & Mid North, Flinders, Mallee, Adealide Plains, North Lofty Hills,Upper SE,but
with extra moisture and reasonable ENE to easterly winds and good instability South Lofty ranges, South YP, Upper and Lower SE come into play as well.
Sea breezes will lift as usuual in Adelaide Plains, hills, EP & YP and Upper & Lower SouthEast.
And downflow boundaries from storm outflows should be a big feature.
Front and gusty cooler SW'ly and a few showers should clear it out on Monday.
General East EP and all areas to east 8 to 20mm,sct storm falls 25 to 40mm, Isol in big storms 50 to 80mm.
Best areas, Hills and east by the look, though local sea breezes & outflow boundaries will be other areas to watch closely.

With that being said BD what time in the arvo on Saturday will the action be happening the most

hmmm... Not enough agreeance on Models to have me anywhere near convinced of this system effecting the GAA much at all, looks very East & North at this stage IMO..