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#1063985 - 26/01/2012 09:32 Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
I thought I might start a separate thread for this event as it is forecast to cover such a vast area. It is rare indeed to have such a significant tropical system affect an area crossing the Territory and then dipping so far south crossing into two states. This low is eventually forecast to affect NSW. To have such a system affect NSW will be very significant. There is a real risk of major flooding across the Darling River catchments in particular. Whilst there was initially a forecast of the monsoon low quickly sliding SE, there is now a prospect that it will stall over northern NSW before being finally swept out to sea. We shall see.


Edited by teckert (26/01/2012 10:08)
Edit Reason: edited title
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#1064001 - 26/01/2012 09:43 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
Antonio-stormboy Offline
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#1064004 - 26/01/2012 09:47 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
snowmad Offline
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Registered: 20/06/2005
Loc: Mt Isa
The low at the moment is intent on taking a more ENE track and has been doing so all morning. Looks very good on sat loop and very well defined on Katherine radar. If it can get into the GOC will drag a hell of lot of moisture south , all models now in latest runs have it very close if not slightly into the SW GOC later tonight before swinging south. Things are going to get very wet for most of queensland over the next 72 - 96 hrs. Will be a big concern arouind Charleville where the warrego is already in flood.

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#1064012 - 26/01/2012 09:52 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: snowmad]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Loc: Bribie Island
Yes, snowmad, the real show will occur when it intensifies through interaction with the almost stationary upper trough which has been really making its presence felt of eastern Qld this week.
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#1064018 - 26/01/2012 09:58 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
teckert Offline
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Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
As mentioned above there is already a thread for this system in SE QLD/NE NSW. It is also covered in the relevant NSW and NT event threads. I will leave this open for general discussion on the low in Western QLD only.


Edited by teckert (26/01/2012 10:08)

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#1064022 - 26/01/2012 10:03 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: teckert]
Tempest Offline
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The other thread is very general, not specific enough Teckert.

I.C, I'd say your neck of the woods is going to feel it more than us. I will be down in Brissie on Monday, I hope the flights wont be cancelled like they were on Tuesday.

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#1064035 - 26/01/2012 10:38 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Tempest]
MathewTownsend Offline
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GFS has it tracking all the way down to Charleville and into Moree region of NSW. Severe gale to storm force NE winds on the eastern quadrant towards the coast.
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#1064041 - 26/01/2012 10:42 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Tempest]
Jajang Offline
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Loc: Brisbane, Queensland
Well the west is really in for a rough ride in the coming days....

But GFS's latest runs seem to point to a 2nd system behind the monsoonal low mentioned here...

ok here is the monsoonal low @ 4pm saturday (surprised no one has put up a picture of it yet)



but then i looked further out after this system rolls down into nsw through sunday....

Here is Tuesday 4pm and this is not the same monsoonal low, in fact this looks like a 2nd low which has followed the first down through western qld.



To me this has real potential to be castrophic - to hammered twice like this in only a few days... essentially the 2nd system would be dumping more rain on already flooded areas if it happens.

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#1064042 - 26/01/2012 10:45 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Jajang]
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Registered: 8/10/2007
WOW .. ANOTHER similar low afterwards, that is ridiculous. Bring it on anyway! It'll surely stop people whinging about 'El Nino-like patterns' and the lack of rain.

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#1064050 - 26/01/2012 10:58 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Flood]
MathewTownsend Offline
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You sure this is not a same low? Within 2-3 days apart forecasted in similar path it appears as a same monsoonal low to be honest. Im seeing it is a same low.....

However, looking at SFC and 900hpa winds, there appears to be 'gusty' or 'squally' storms on the eastern edge of this low facing the NE infeed moisture winds. There would be gales extending from the low towards the coastline. At this stage it appears between Hervey Bay and Sydney. This LONG extension of gales!

Rainfall, yes you do know it will be bad yet again frown I hope it does not flood Bruce Hwy north of Brisbane by the week because i'm heading back to Townsville one week today!
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#1064055 - 26/01/2012 11:04 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MathewTownsend]
Squid Offline
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i think it is the same low
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#1064062 - 26/01/2012 11:16 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Squid]
Jajang Offline
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Registered: 30/01/2011
Loc: Brisbane, Queensland
I disagree - going through the GFS charts - I see 2 systems...

The Monsoonal low we are talking about in this thread travels down through NSW on sunday and disappears out to sea (Tasman) on Monday .... Here is Monday 4am... you can clearly see our monsoonal low (or whats left of it now just over water south of Sydney.



looking at that same map you can also see next to Mt Isa the 2nd system.... or rather it's beginnings.... by 4pm on monday it's moved down to longreach and is rather more obvious by now...



and then by tuesday 4pm as you saw above it's over south-western qld...

Hence there are 2 systems that GFS is forecasting at the moment.

apologies if i'm misreadying as i'm no expert....

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#1064065 - 26/01/2012 11:19 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Jajang]
Jajang Offline
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btw - sorry about all the images .. and i know it's only 1 model but certainly an interesting situation if it comes off.

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#1064101 - 26/01/2012 12:01 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Jajang]
MRF Offline
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Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
Think you're on the money there Jajang, if you look at the GFS Accumulated Precip charts for Tues Goondiwindi is in for a soaking, definately not due to that first low that has well and truly disappeared by then.

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#1064112 - 26/01/2012 12:25 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
snowmad Offline
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Registered: 20/06/2005
Loc: Mt Isa
Latest out of darwin BOM have system 60km ENE of katherine and moving east at 25KPH towards the soup waters of the GOC watch it fire up when it gets close to those waters.

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#1064122 - 26/01/2012 12:37 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: snowmad]
MRF Offline
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Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
Wonder just how much further it will push East if it makes it into the GOC waters, would think it will make a big difference to where it tracks through central QLD when it begins it's march S/SE.

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#1064124 - 26/01/2012 12:44 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
snowmad Offline
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Registered: 20/06/2005
Loc: Mt Isa
Will be interesting to see BOM take on situation as the day goes and IF the LLCC keeps on heading east especially at such a high rate. Possibilty for a cyclone watch if it looks like getting into the GOC or at least a SWW for the Gulf country one would think.Looking forward to latest model take on the system given it has not taken the S - SE path they were prog yesterday so the longer it stays the course east especially at such a rate of knots will have big effect on where it eventually travels through Qld.

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#1064129 - 26/01/2012 12:46 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Loc: Bribie Island
There appears that there will more than one monsoon low that will venture southwards. Several of the models are indicating that there will be a second wave that will dip southwards after the first low dissipates over NSW. The second pulse will be more eastwards than the first and will also need to be watched. This current period of the active monsoon looks set to last for the next two weeks at least.
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#1064132 - 26/01/2012 12:50 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: snowmad]
isaY Offline
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Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Here in Charleville a few people are getting worried. This town has a history of flooding.
The old bridge north is under the Warrego and the river is getting high on the new bridge. Over the bridge and its into town. Looking at these forcasts is not good

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#1064133 - 26/01/2012 12:50 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: snowmad]
MathewTownsend Offline
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Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
The further the east it is, the stronger the system will go by and then will head much closer to central eastern parts of Qld as it shift towards the SSE/SE from late tomorrow. This is very dangerous situation by the rate of this system because of the position of NE winds will cause damaging gales on the eastern quadrant. Look at 900hpa winds from GFS, its rather intense windshear!!! Its like a landphoon like we had in Alice Springs couple seasons ago.
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#1064147 - 26/01/2012 13:05 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MathewTownsend]
Adam Ant Offline
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Loc: Withcott...on the eastern side...
I will be keeping a particularly close eye on that possible 2nd low. On the 5 Feb I will be swimming 2km in the macintyre river at goondiwindi for the hell of the west triathlon. A couple of hundred mm would make it interesting!

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#1064153 - 26/01/2012 13:09 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Adam Ant]
nitso Offline
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Registered: 20/11/2006
Loc: Kirwan
Agreed definitely 2 discrete LOWS this first oe is a done deal moving SE over Queensland or perhaps SSE depending on trough strength.

Second LOW movement uncertain - weak Central Oz ridging will battle it out with mid level westerlies from the monsoon. Second LOW's movement is anyone's guess at this stage. Favoured scenario is a quasi stationary position in the southern gulf for days on end as the steering influences battle it out.
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#1064245 - 26/01/2012 15:15 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MathewTownsend]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Loc: Kingaroy
judging from the two GFS images, I reckon there could be a high risk of tornadoes with the two monsoon lows, because, as the low spins clockwise, very strong windshear is going to occur between the northwest winds and northeast winds on the eastern side of the lows, I'm not suggesting that there will be a major outbreak of tornadoes, but the potential is there for severe weather.

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#1064262 - 26/01/2012 15:47 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Chris Stumer]
lookin Offline
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Registered: 19/01/2008
Loc: tweed heads
this low will need alot of south in it to get to central NSW . Even from where it is now a steady SE movement will have it heading off the SE QLD coast . As it is still moving east pretty quickly im thinking the models will be on an almost continuos update . Gotta love summer and the monsoon

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#1064268 - 26/01/2012 15:56 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: lookin]
Vinnie Offline
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Registered: 17/05/2006
Loc: Yeppoon (Mulambin) QLD , Pert...
Is the monsoon trough meant to get as far south tomorrow as Gladstone or Yeppoon ? That is what they said on the news last night.
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#1064271 - 26/01/2012 15:59 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Vinnie]
lookin Offline
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Registered: 19/01/2008
Loc: tweed heads
did read Yeppoon in last nights state outlook

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#1064435 - 26/01/2012 18:57 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: lookin]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Recent movement has been ESE. On that trajectory I don't know whether it's going to make the GOC.

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#1064508 - 26/01/2012 20:20 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Any flood predictions for Charleville, anyone?

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#1064510 - 26/01/2012 20:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: nitso]
OzCyChaser Trav Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
Originally Posted By: nitso
Agreed definitely 2 discrete LOWS this first oe is a done deal moving SE over Queensland or perhaps SSE depending on trough strength.

Second LOW movement uncertain - weak Central Oz ridging will battle it out with mid level westerlies from the monsoon. Second LOW's movement is anyone's guess at this stage. Favoured scenario is a quasi stationary position in the southern gulf for days on end as the steering influences battle it out.



Im happy with that, we would get bulk rain.
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#1064545 - 26/01/2012 21:03 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: lookin]
Sandfly Offline
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Originally Posted By: lookin
did read Yeppoon in last nights state outlook


One thing is for certian, it's not goin anywhere near yeppoon. Associated advection is the only hope on the cap coast.
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#1064560 - 26/01/2012 21:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Sandfly]
MathewTownsend Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
As having the monsoonal trough being over Mt Isa and Whitsundays by tomorrow afternoon this is a hint that the ML is going to be as close as central part rather than far southwest?
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#1064574 - 26/01/2012 21:41 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MathewTownsend]
Southern Oracle Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
So is the upper low to be blamed for one of the Models showing this Retrograde west a little and alter path to direct Sth once it reaches Qld/NSW border . What will happen to the Upper Low , will it be shunted into the advancing / advected Cold front / Cut Off before this Low gets down below 30 S . ??
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#1064651 - 26/01/2012 23:33 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Southern Oracle]
Lani Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Loc: Dalby, QLD
Roma has just recorded 58mm to 6pm in a storm today. These falls are only saturating the ground in preparation for the weekend/next week event. There'll be a lot of nervous people around watching this.

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#1064654 - 26/01/2012 23:39 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Lani]
MathewTownsend Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
It seems the low going to be top of Mt Isa soon. Far more north than GFS does. This is getting very dangerous situation for the coasters.
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#1064659 - 26/01/2012 23:45 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MathewTownsend]
Squid Offline
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Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
looks like this low may take a brief dip in the GOC
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#1064674 - 27/01/2012 00:07 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Squid]
Jajang Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2011
Loc: Brisbane, Queensland
I agree matt... it's movement atm seems to more inline with Access which has this doing a slight dip in the GOC before coming south... though i still don't think it will cross back out to see around yepoon like access has it later in the weekend.....

Access - Yepoon - Monday (30/1)
GFS - Dips to NSW and sits over Northern NSW after...
NoGaps - As per GFS but possibly a little further west now.
CMC - Dips to NSW but disappates in Northern NSW I think.
EC - Dips to NSW also.

Seems Access is the outlier on this atm. interesting.

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#1064707 - 27/01/2012 00:56 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Jajang]
TC Poncho Offline
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Registered: 7/01/2010
Loc: Point Cartwright, Sunny Coast,...
from CIMMSS it looks to be south of port roper and west of borroloola. i reckon they have their invest symbol in the wrong place.
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#1065370 - 27/01/2012 17:22 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Sandfly]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Still moving very much to the SE, perhaps more to the East than modelled:

512km Radar Loop for Mornington Island, 07:00 26/01/2012 to 07:00 27/01/2012 UTC
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#1065386 - 27/01/2012 17:46 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Raindammit]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
I reckon a lot more east in it than the models were picking. Probably has something to do with the strength of the NW'ly flow form the monsoon. Question is, just how far east it will get before it pulls a hard right and heads south?


Edited by Brett Guy (27/01/2012 17:46)

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#1065478 - 27/01/2012 19:24 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Brett Guy]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Just to the North of Gregory Downs now, appears to have wobbled to the ESE. Interesting...
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#1065498 - 27/01/2012 19:37 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Raindammit]
Chookie Offline
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Registered: 20/03/2009
Loc: Charters Towers
which means what raindammit? do u think it will come further east then they think?

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#1065535 - 27/01/2012 20:08 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Chookie]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I don't think so. The Low should slip SSE on the Eastern side of the (admittedly quite weak) upper level Low to it's SSW in the next 12 hours.
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#1065750 - 27/01/2012 22:25 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Raindammit]
Rain lover (SHAZZA) Offline
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Registered: 15/02/2008
Loc: Rockhampton
Bye Bye any chance of rain for the coast!

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#1065759 - 27/01/2012 22:30 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rain lover (SHAZZA)]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Not from this system Shazza. It will, however, affect large tracts of inland Queensland and northern NSW, It will certainly increase inflows into the Darling River system and has the potential for some major flooding for it and its catchments.
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#1065777 - 27/01/2012 22:39 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
vpprt Offline
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Registered: 21/12/2010
Loc: Australia
Nice monsoon low, down to 993 hPa in one of the analyses. Not quite as good as the 'Landphoon' of 2006 which got down to 988 hPa, which was over the Tanami desert lol.

Nevertheless, still great structure and inflows of 35 kts on previous ASCAT passes.

Like i said before, I hope this things zips out of Qld. Hate for the West to flood five years in a row.

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#1065781 - 27/01/2012 22:43 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
BIG T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/01/2012
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Hi all , first ever post in WZ , that Low is really mobile now , looks like most probably those central towns of Roma , Charleville , St George , etc are in for a wet stretch ,been a fascinating system to follow thus far.


Edited by BIG T (27/01/2012 22:46)

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#1065818 - 27/01/2012 23:20 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: BIG T]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Should be fairly easy to track the progress. Plenty of observation posts in the general vicinity.

I would suggest 3 stations to watch in the short term which might be important to ascertain which parts of Central QLD are going to be affected are Mt Isa, Cloncurry and Julia Creek.

Current observations for those 3 stations (at 10pm) were

Mt Isa - gusting to 37kmh - S - 999.3
Cloncurry - gusting to 46kmh - SSW - 996.9
Julia Creek - gusting to 46kmh - E - 997.4

By my calculations this puts the LLCC heading more towards Julia Creek than 06Z GFS forecast or about 100km further East. Anyone care to speculate whether this might shift the spread of heaviest falls 100km further to the East as the low gets further South or does this mean it will take a more Southerly track through the night and shift back closer to the GFS predicted track?

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#1065823 - 27/01/2012 23:25 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Squid Offline
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Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
those obs put it east of mt isa and north of julia creek
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#1065833 - 27/01/2012 23:33 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Squid]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
That what I figure squid which puts it maybe 100km East of the 10pm 06Z GFS position. If that trend continued SE QLD comes into play.

Or should I say the extreme western parts like Toowomba and the western portion of the Wivenhoe catchment.


Edited by Locke (27/01/2012 23:34)

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#1065855 - 27/01/2012 23:47 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Observations at 10.30pm

Mt Isa - gusting to 39kmh - S - 999.5
Cloncurry - gusting to 43kmh - S - 996.7
Julia Creek - gusting to 48kmh - E - 996.6

And we might look a little further east at Richmond gusting to 24kmh - E - 1001.1

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#1065863 - 27/01/2012 23:54 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
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Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).

Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065887 - 28/01/2012 00:14 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Monsoon low observations at 11pm

Mt Isa - gusting to 31kmh - S - 999.7
Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - S - 995.9
Julia Creek - gusting to 48kmh - E - 996.0
Richmond - gusting to 22kmh - ENE - 1000.9


Edited by Locke (28/01/2012 00:18)
Edit Reason: corrected timing

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#1065894 - 28/01/2012 00:17 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
New SWW is out. Nothing new expect they state the low as being "Near Cloncurry".

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.txt
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065895 - 28/01/2012 00:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
kasandsas Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2011
Loc: New Farm, Brisbane
Western side of Darling Downs and Granite Belt included in the BOM warning...not sure that was in last time?

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#1065896 - 28/01/2012 00:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
kymm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 5/04/2008
Loc: Emerald, QLD
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).

Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...


agree!!

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#1065899 - 28/01/2012 00:29 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: kasandsas]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: kasandsas
Western side of Darling Downs and Granite Belt included in the BOM warning...not sure that was in last time?


They were in the 6pm warning.

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#1065903 - 28/01/2012 00:40 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
kasandsas Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2011
Loc: New Farm, Brisbane
Ok thanks Locke smile

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#1065906 - 28/01/2012 00:44 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: kasandsas]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Monsoon low observations at 11.30pm

Cloncurry - gusting to 57kmh - S - 995.3
Julia Creek - gusting to 54kmh - E - 995.2

Definitely heading through Julia Creek

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#1065910 - 28/01/2012 00:48 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
So further east than forecast? Bad news?
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065927 - 28/01/2012 01:18 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Final obs before I crash for the evening. At midnight.

Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - SSE - 994.7
Julia Creek - gusting to 54kmh - NE - 994.2

So perhaps in between Cloncurry and Julia Creek. I will be interesting getting up in the morning to find out where it is.

I feel that even though its a little East of the GFS forecast, the froecast will still be reasonably accurate. I cant yet see it being far enough east to bring substantial rainfall to SE QLD


Edited by Locke (28/01/2012 01:19)
Edit Reason: corrected pressure

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#1065976 - 28/01/2012 06:48 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Maclaw Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/12/2008
Loc: Emerald Queensland
196 mm recorded at Cloncurry to 5am this morning.
_________________________
Mar- 151mm YTD - 475mm
The Block Mar-192.4mm YTD-423.8mm



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#1065984 - 28/01/2012 07:18 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Maclaw]
jilleroo2 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 2/03/2011
Has Winton still got a chance of good rain? Not much there yet.....

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#1066010 - 28/01/2012 08:27 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: jilleroo2]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Roma on flood alert
Charleville will be soon

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#1066028 - 28/01/2012 08:50 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
I may be completely wrong but to the naked eye the low looks to be further east than what GFS expected it to be at this point in time. Wonder just how much further east it will push and how much longer before it starts heading SSE as GFS expects?

http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast?s...nefc=#stormcast

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/qld/longreach

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/mtsat_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=7&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=7&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

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#1066030 - 28/01/2012 08:50 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: jilleroo2]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Observations at 7am for stations that may become relevant today, as well as the ones Locke was following last night. Wind speeds are gusts.

Cloncurry - 19km/hr - W - 1000.3 hPa
Julia Creek - 39km/hr - NW - 999.0 hPa
Richmond - 59km/hr - N - 999.7 hPa
Trepell Airport (80km SW of McKinlay)- 37km/hr - SW - 998.9 hPa
Winton - 59km/hr - NE - 996.9 hPa
Longreach - 28km/hr - ENE - 1000.9 hPa
Blackall - 24hm/hr - ENE - 1004. hPa

Lowest recorded pressure - 991.2 hPa at Julia Creek, 2:02am
Highest wind gusts recorded - 82km/hr at Julia Creek, 2:30am

Just looking outside, the clouds appear to be moving in from the northwest towards the southeast, which seems to indicate to me that the system is still to the north of Longreach. This is backed up by pressure readings in Winton and Longreach. A pity that we don't have more AWS's out here



Edited by Rawhide (28/01/2012 08:55)
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066039 - 28/01/2012 09:03 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
To my inexperienced eye, the observations on the 512km Longreach radar, particularly the wind directions, still place this low between Winton and Julia Creek - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR561.loop.shtml

Rain really picking up here now.


Edited by Rawhide (28/01/2012 09:04)
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066065 - 28/01/2012 09:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
8am

Cloncurry - 17km/hr - W - 1001.2 hPa
Julia Creek - 39km/hr - NW - 1000.0 hPa
Richmond - 46km/hr - N - 1000.5 hPa
Trepell Airport (80km SW of McKinlay)- 32km/hr - SW - 999.9 hPa
Winton - 44km/hr - NNE - 996.9 hPa
Longreach - 28km/hr - ENE - 1000.8 hPa
Blackall - 35hm/hr - ENE - 1003.0 hPa

Pressure rising in towns along the Flinders Highway, virtually steady elsewhere
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066066 - 28/01/2012 09:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
BIG T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/01/2012
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Draw a line between Longreach & Moree , it will track along that path, following the rain bands already there. SEQ will be spared imo.

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#1066077 - 28/01/2012 09:29 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: BIG T]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
That last set of obs would certainly place the centre of the low to the West of Winton. It also appears to have weakened considerably overnight when you you look at the water vapour loop.

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#1066084 - 28/01/2012 09:32 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: BIG T]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
If it tracks along that path and the low passes over Moree, SE QLD could get a decent drenching I would of thought? GFS has the low passing straight over Bourke on Sunday with all the rain and wind to the East of it.
If you were to push those rain and winds a couple of hundred kms east (the distance between Bourke and Moree) the results could be pretty bad for SE QLD.
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast?s...nefc=#stormcast

Next GFS update should be out shortly, will be interesting!

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#1066090 - 28/01/2012 09:37 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
BIG T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/01/2012
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
yep , correct, spared of anything real nasty was where i was goin , unlike those border areas like gundi / mungindi where it is also damp already.My concern would be out there.

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#1066110 - 28/01/2012 09:55 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
what the Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 7/03/2009
Loc: Cambooya
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
To my inexperienced eye, the observations on the 512km Longreach radar, particularly the wind directions, still place this low between Winton and Julia Creek - http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR561.loop.shtml

Rain really picking up here now.



Me too Kynuna. So waiting for the video updates.

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#1066130 - 28/01/2012 10:15 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: what the]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
9am

Julia Creek - 35km/hr - WNW - 1000.6 hPa
Richmond - 50km/hr - NNW - 1001.1 hPa
Trepell - 37km/hr - WSW - 1000.9 hPa
Winton - 65km/hr - N - 996.8 hPa
Longreach - 35km/hr - ENE - 1000.0 hPa
Blackall - 44hm/hr - ENE - 1002.6 hPa
Charleville - 30km/hr - ENE - 1005.4 hPa
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066174 - 28/01/2012 10:46 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Rawhide, do you have a link for those stats, please

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#1066189 - 28/01/2012 10:52 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
Looks like the Longreach radar has gone offline, back to watching hourly Sat updates.

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#1066201 - 28/01/2012 10:57 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
Wet-Ish Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Mt Convenient - north of Sarin...
"Rawhide, do you have a link for those stats, please"



http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/observations/qldall.shtml

you can get that information from this site
_________________________
When life hands you puddles...Splash in em!

MTD 4.0mm *~* YTD 1621.5mm

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#1066232 - 28/01/2012 11:28 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Wet-Ish]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Sorry ISAY, from the BOM page as per Wet-ish's link.
Not sure what is going with Longreach radar, they may be wind finding.
Just went for a drive 50km out of town, rather wet and windy, starting to become more so here in town.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066236 - 28/01/2012 11:32 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
10am

Julia Creek - 30km/hr - WNW - 1000.9 hPa
Richmond - 39km/hr - NNW - 1001.5 hPa
Trepell - 37km/hr - WSW - 1001.1 hPa
Winton - 59km/hr - N - 996.6 hPa
Longreach - 48km/hr - NE - 999.8 hPa
Blackall - 41hm/hr - ENE - 1002.3 hPa
Charleville - 28km/hr - ENE - 1004.9 hPa
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066238 - 28/01/2012 11:38 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD

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#1066263 - 28/01/2012 11:56 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Sorry ISAY, from the BOM page as per Wet-ish's link.
Not sure what is going with Longreach radar, they may be wind finding.
Just went for a drive 50km out of town, rather wet and windy, starting to become more so here in town.


No worries mate. Hows the river looking?
Lots of water in the warrego, see how she handles a bit more to come

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#1066283 - 28/01/2012 12:12 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
MRF Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/02/2011
Loc: Toowoomba, QLD
Longreach radar is back up.

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#1066291 - 28/01/2012 12:17 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: MRF]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
The Thomson is looking a bit full. Would need big falls in the Muttaburra/Aramac region t push levels past minor flooding however.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066295 - 28/01/2012 12:23 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
11am

Richmond - 46km/hr - NW - 1001.5 hPa
Trepell - 28km/hr - WSW - 1001.1 hPa
Winton - 56km/hr - N - 997.1hPa
Longreach - 44km/hr - NE - 999.0 hPa
Blackall - 30hm/hr - NE - 1001.6 hPa
Charleville - 33km/hr - NE - 1004.2 hPa

Pressure rising in Winton and falling in Longreach might indicate the low is between these locations now.

Edit - Looking very unimpressive on radar now


Edited by Rawhide (28/01/2012 12:24)
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066321 - 28/01/2012 12:44 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
what the Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 7/03/2009
Loc: Cambooya
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
11am

Richmond - 46km/hr - NW - 1001.5 hPa
Trepell - 28km/hr - WSW - 1001.1 hPa
Winton - 56km/hr - N - 997.1hPa
Longreach - 44km/hr - NE - 999.0 hPa
Blackall - 30hm/hr - NE - 1001.6 hPa
Charleville - 33km/hr - NE - 1004.2 hPa

Pressure rising in Winton and falling in Longreach might indicate the low is between these locations now.

Edit - Looking very unimpressive on radar now


Im suppose to be studying. Ha this is better to watch. Have family out Tanbar Stn, they have had 20ml and waiting for this rain. They lost a fair bit of feed in the fires.

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#1066340 - 28/01/2012 13:01 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: what the]
Stormy1 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/10/2005
Loc: Springfield
Seems to me the low is moving SE direction as we speak.....

Link:http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html


Edited by Stormy1 (28/01/2012 13:02)

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#1066349 - 28/01/2012 13:09 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Stormy1]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Nice to see you're getting some enjoyment out of this, what the!
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066361 - 28/01/2012 13:18 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Your midday observations.

Winton - 57km/hr - NNW - 997.2 hPa
Longreach - 48km/hr - N - 998.5 hPa
Blackall - 37hm/hr - NE - 1000.7 hPa
Charleville - 37km/hr - NE - 1003.3 hPa
Windorah - no gusts recorded, winds from SSE - 998.9 hPa - this station only reports every three hours.

Getting some good wind in Longreach in the last thirty minutes or so - gust of 57km/hr at 11:35am.
Downstairs is flooded, though mainly due to my washing machine playing up again.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066411 - 28/01/2012 14:09 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville

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#1066424 - 28/01/2012 14:19 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
1pm

Winton - 56km/hr - NNW - 997.2 hPa
Longreach - 64km/hr - N - 997.4 hPa
Blackall - 56km/hr - NNE - 1000.2 hPa
Charleville - 33km/hr - ENE - 1002.1 hPa

Longreach radar showing a great outer band extending from Aramac through to Isisford and Jundah.

Virtually no rain falling into gauges though - Winton 0.4mm, Longreach nil, Blackall 6.4mm since 9am.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066431 - 28/01/2012 14:24 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
PV Weather Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Loc: Eton, West of Mackay.
Originally Posted By: ISAY


Not really no, it's from GFS, it gives you an idea of the rainfall but it usually forecasts a lot more than what you actually will get.

Question, shouldn't this thread be located in the "Tropical Lows and Cyclones" section??
_________________________
Eton, QLD (30km SW of Mackay):
LIVE DATA || FANCY GRAPHS
OZ FORECAST
WUNDERGROUND (IQLDETON2)

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#1066440 - 28/01/2012 14:30 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I Say:

It is a model and all models are suspect.

Also it shows accumulated rainfall not just rainfall in any one 24 hour period. On occasions they do get it almost right but with no means of telling which one is and which one isn't right is damn near impossible. The closer the time/date the clearer the possible outcome.

In Townsville we normally knock off at least one zero and that brings it into at least a more realistic total.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


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#1066509 - 28/01/2012 15:33 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: PV Weather]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Originally Posted By: PV Weather
Originally Posted By: ISAY


Not really no, it's from GFS, it gives you an idea of the rainfall but it usually forecasts a lot more than what you actually will get.

Question, shouldn't this thread be located in the "Tropical Lows and Cyclones" section??


Ok thanks. Half of what it says will be a worry.
It's not really a tropical low is it? and is in the Central Australia area. Well feels pretty central if you drive out here from the coast smile

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#1066515 - 28/01/2012 15:36 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Sir BoabTree]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Originally Posted By: Sir BoabTree
I Say:

It is a model and all models are suspect.

Also it shows accumulated rainfall not just rainfall in any one 24 hour period. On occasions they do get it almost right but with no means of telling which one is and which one isn't right is damn near impossible. The closer the time/date the clearer the possible outcome.

In Townsville we normally knock off at least one zero and that brings it into at least a more realistic total.

Join the I and SAY and spell it backwards. Thats when I came on board. smile

As you say pity these things seem to favour the extreme




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#1066580 - 28/01/2012 16:38 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Could this thing turn into something else in the Coral sea.
Looks like a lot of it running off that way

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/qld

Or doesn't it work that way

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#1066629 - 28/01/2012 17:11 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
Sir BoabTree Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I doubt it Isay but a damn good question anyway.

OK just my opinion and going on the synoptic charts but the BoM say No.

To spin up into anything in the Coral Sea it would need to first get there (It actually moving in the wrong direction), next move well off shore and maintain its shape for probably 48 hours or so to intensify, then if all 6 criteria for cyclogenisis (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1012809/1/How_cyclones_form_or_Cyclogeni) are present and it did form then a steering influence of some sort would then have to push it back towards the coast.

The bands you see steaming out towards the east coast are just feeder bands. The actual centre of the depression is moving over the border into NSW and will continue heading south east until it dissapates somewhere in central SA.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm
Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie
Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.


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#1066640 - 28/01/2012 17:18 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Sir BoabTree]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Thank you Sir, Yeah I know where the centre is, I'm in Charleville, smile
I was talking about those "feeder bands" helping to create something in the Coral sea as from the image there seems to be something already there.
But I guess not.
Thanks for your knowledge

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#1066750 - 28/01/2012 18:45 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Jeff Higgs has posted a video presentation on the SEQ/NE thread concerning this low and its impact on Western Queensland, I have reproduced it here FYI:

[quote=JEFF.H.]HSC Latest Forecast Video ...
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The member formerly known as the donut hole

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#1066754 - 28/01/2012 18:53 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
Scottie A Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Low looks like its really starting to flatten/weaken out into a trough now as EC has forecasted.
_________________________
Scott Anderson

My Youtube Channel http://www.youtube.com/user/MrScottieA

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#1066813 - 28/01/2012 19:54 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Scottie A]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Yes, agreed Scottie. EC has done a good job on this. However, credit where credit is due, GFS picked up on this first, but has lost the train of it towards the end.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole

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#1066870 - 28/01/2012 20:32 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
jilleroo2 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 2/03/2011
Well only 8mm on our place N of Winton, very disappointing!

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#1066885 - 28/01/2012 20:41 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: jilleroo2]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 7/09/2008
Loc: Longreach, CWQ
Agree, not even that much down here. Nice to see Winton on ABC news though.
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1066996 - 28/01/2012 22:02 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
The rain is finally here.
Bucketing down for the last half hour

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#1067257 - 29/01/2012 01:02 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
It seems to be fizzling out the more it comes south. Does anyone think it will still pack some punch rain wise when it arrives in NSW?

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#1067315 - 29/01/2012 03:04 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rainbow Spirit]
sure spring Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Springsure
Well I think we are getting the predicted rain for Longreach/Winton.

I am in Springsure CQ and we had recieved 130mm in 6 hrs from about 7pm tonight. We have had about an hours break and it is raining fairly heavy again now. All the creeks around the town areover which has cut the roads. The cell over us on the radar was just sitting there for hours. Will be interesting to see how much more we get.

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#1067326 - 29/01/2012 04:31 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: sure spring]
sure spring Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Springsure
we are at 165mm and still raining with plenty more on the radar.

The town has lost a water mains pipe that runs to the other side of town so some people dont have water. That along with a foot bridge has been swept away with the flooded creek.

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#1067329 - 29/01/2012 05:09 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: sure spring]
wonderweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2010
Loc: Julatten, Atherton Tablelands
Not bad totals SS & hope you're staying nicely high & dry. My son drove to Emerald Friday & I warned him of possibility of rain - hoping he can fly out today...

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#1067344 - 29/01/2012 06:51 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: wonderweather]
sure spring Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2010
Loc: Springsure
Emerald has had about 8mm I think, its crazy hey! We have had 200mm now over a 12 hr period. I am high and dry but there will be some that are not that lucky. The town is split in 2 and I will be stuck this side for the day I would say. The creeks are roaring

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#1067364 - 29/01/2012 08:20 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: sure spring]
ColdFront Online   happy
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Loc: Cairns
Here's a news article covering some rainfall totals from ABC. Some place copped 200mm. Nice rain indeed. A few more years and no doubt those areas will be begging for rain again as drought once again replaces flood.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-29/severe-storms-lash-central-queensland/3798630
_________________________
"Politicians and nappies should be changed often and for the same reason"

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#1068994 - 31/01/2012 11:19 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: ColdFront]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
FLOOD WARNING FOR BRADLEY'S GULLY TO CHARLEVILLE AND THE WARREGO RIVER
Issued at 10:00 AM on Tuesday the 31st of January 2012
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.



Heavy rainfall of up to 183mm has been recorded overnight in the Ward River
catchment. Major flood levels are expected at Oak Park today. Rainfall of up to
125mm has affected Bradleys Gully catchment. Levels of up to 3 metres are
expected early on Tuesday afternoon in Bradley's Gully at Charleville.

Bradleys Gully:
Heavy rainfall of up to 125mm has been recorded overnight in the Bradley's Gully
catchment. A major flood peak of about 2.5 metres was observed at Raceview at
3am. Levels of up to 3 metres are expected early on Tuesday afternoon in
Charleville. Higher levels are possible if there has been significant unmeasured
rainfall elsewhere in the Gully catchment. The peak level in March 2010 was 4.2
metres.

Ward/Langlo Rivers:
183mm has been recorded at Oak Park in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday. Major flood
levels are expected at Oak Park today. Rises will occur downstream to Binnowee
with moderate flood levels at Binnowee on Wednesday.

Warrego River:
Rainfall upstream of Augathella is expected to result in at least minor flood
levels at Augathella during Tuesday. Moderate flood levels are expected at The
27 Mile Garden on Wednesday. Fast rises are expected at Charleville (Warrego
River) today following heavy overnight rain between 27 Mile Garden and
Charleville with minor flood levels possible.

Forecasts for Bakers Bend and areas downstream will be made as further
information is available.

At Cunnamulla, a moderate flood peak of 7.8 metres is expected today.

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#1071402 - 4/02/2012 19:37 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
I thought I might start a separate thread for this event as it is forecast to cover such a vast area. It is rare indeed to have such a significant tropical system affect an area crossing the Territory and then dipping so far south crossing into two states. This low is eventually forecast to affect NSW. To have such a system affect NSW will be very significant. There is a real risk of major flooding across the Darling River catchments in particular. Whilst there was initially a forecast of the monsoon low quickly sliding SE, there is now a prospect that it will stall over northern NSW before being finally swept out to sea. We shall see.


This is indeed what has happened. This is, in fact, all one event. What started as a monsoon low dipping down over western Queensland and NSW subsequently turned into a trough system that fed constant moisture into an ongoing upper trough and has now resulted in the present flooding.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole

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#1071509 - 4/02/2012 23:14 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man/moderator

Registered: 10/05/2001
Loc: Bayview, Darwin, NT land of th...
This is rather alarming to say the least:

http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65396/IDQ65396.043100.plt.shtml

TS cool
_________________________
October Rainfall = 149.2mm, Thunderdays 7. Wet Season Total = 149.2mm

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#1071651 - 5/02/2012 10:06 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Thunderstruck]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
Yeah St George is in for it for sure

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#1071659 - 5/02/2012 10:33 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville
All residents of St George have been advised to evacuate via the Moonie Hwy

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#1071661 - 5/02/2012 10:36 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
isaY Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 1/02/2011
Loc: Charleville

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#1071811 - 5/02/2012 16:23 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: isaY]
Inclement Weather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Police have now issued a mandatory evacuation order for St George residents - Sky News.
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