#1063985 - 26/01/201209:32Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
I thought I might start a separate thread for this event as it is forecast to cover such a vast area. It is rare indeed to have such a significant tropical system affect an area crossing the Territory and then dipping so far south crossing into two states. This low is eventually forecast to affect NSW. To have such a system affect NSW will be very significant. There is a real risk of major flooding across the Darling River catchments in particular. Whilst there was initially a forecast of the monsoon low quickly sliding SE, there is now a prospect that it will stall over northern NSW before being finally swept out to sea. We shall see.
Edited by teckert (26/01/201210:08) Edit Reason: edited title
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
The low at the moment is intent on taking a more ENE track and has been doing so all morning. Looks very good on sat loop and very well defined on Katherine radar. If it can get into the GOC will drag a hell of lot of moisture south , all models now in latest runs have it very close if not slightly into the SW GOC later tonight before swinging south. Things are going to get very wet for most of queensland over the next 72 - 96 hrs. Will be a big concern arouind Charleville where the warrego is already in flood.
#1064012 - 26/01/201209:52Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: snowmad]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Yes, snowmad, the real show will occur when it intensifies through interaction with the almost stationary upper trough which has been really making its presence felt of eastern Qld this week.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole
Registered: 27/05/2001
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
As mentioned above there is already a thread for this system in SE QLD/NE NSW. It is also covered in the relevant NSW and NT event threads. I will leave this open for general discussion on the low in Western QLD only.
The other thread is very general, not specific enough Teckert.
I.C, I'd say your neck of the woods is going to feel it more than us. I will be down in Brissie on Monday, I hope the flights wont be cancelled like they were on Tuesday.
#1064035 - 26/01/201210:38Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Tempest]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
GFS has it tracking all the way down to Charleville and into Moree region of NSW. Severe gale to storm force NE winds on the eastern quadrant towards the coast.
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Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
Well the west is really in for a rough ride in the coming days....
But GFS's latest runs seem to point to a 2nd system behind the monsoonal low mentioned here...
ok here is the monsoonal low @ 4pm saturday (surprised no one has put up a picture of it yet)
but then i looked further out after this system rolls down into nsw through sunday....
Here is Tuesday 4pm and this is not the same monsoonal low, in fact this looks like a 2nd low which has followed the first down through western qld.
To me this has real potential to be castrophic - to hammered twice like this in only a few days... essentially the 2nd system would be dumping more rain on already flooded areas if it happens.
WOW .. ANOTHER similar low afterwards, that is ridiculous. Bring it on anyway! It'll surely stop people whinging about 'El Nino-like patterns' and the lack of rain.
#1064050 - 26/01/201210:58Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Flood]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
You sure this is not a same low? Within 2-3 days apart forecasted in similar path it appears as a same monsoonal low to be honest. Im seeing it is a same low.....
However, looking at SFC and 900hpa winds, there appears to be 'gusty' or 'squally' storms on the eastern edge of this low facing the NE infeed moisture winds. There would be gales extending from the low towards the coastline. At this stage it appears between Hervey Bay and Sydney. This LONG extension of gales!
Rainfall, yes you do know it will be bad yet again I hope it does not flood Bruce Hwy north of Brisbane by the week because i'm heading back to Townsville one week today!
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Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
I disagree - going through the GFS charts - I see 2 systems...
The Monsoonal low we are talking about in this thread travels down through NSW on sunday and disappears out to sea (Tasman) on Monday .... Here is Monday 4am... you can clearly see our monsoonal low (or whats left of it now just over water south of Sydney.
looking at that same map you can also see next to Mt Isa the 2nd system.... or rather it's beginnings.... by 4pm on monday it's moved down to longreach and is rather more obvious by now...
and then by tuesday 4pm as you saw above it's over south-western qld...
Hence there are 2 systems that GFS is forecasting at the moment.
Think you're on the money there Jajang, if you look at the GFS Accumulated Precip charts for Tues Goondiwindi is in for a soaking, definately not due to that first low that has well and truly disappeared by then.
Latest out of darwin BOM have system 60km ENE of katherine and moving east at 25KPH towards the soup waters of the GOC watch it fire up when it gets close to those waters.
Wonder just how much further it will push East if it makes it into the GOC waters, would think it will make a big difference to where it tracks through central QLD when it begins it's march S/SE.
Will be interesting to see BOM take on situation as the day goes and IF the LLCC keeps on heading east especially at such a high rate. Possibilty for a cyclone watch if it looks like getting into the GOC or at least a SWW for the Gulf country one would think.Looking forward to latest model take on the system given it has not taken the S - SE path they were prog yesterday so the longer it stays the course east especially at such a rate of knots will have big effect on where it eventually travels through Qld.
#1064129 - 26/01/201212:46Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: MRF]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
There appears that there will more than one monsoon low that will venture southwards. Several of the models are indicating that there will be a second wave that will dip southwards after the first low dissipates over NSW. The second pulse will be more eastwards than the first and will also need to be watched. This current period of the active monsoon looks set to last for the next two weeks at least.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole
Here in Charleville a few people are getting worried. This town has a history of flooding. The old bridge north is under the Warrego and the river is getting high on the new bridge. Over the bridge and its into town. Looking at these forcasts is not good
#1064133 - 26/01/201212:50Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: snowmad]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
The further the east it is, the stronger the system will go by and then will head much closer to central eastern parts of Qld as it shift towards the SSE/SE from late tomorrow. This is very dangerous situation by the rate of this system because of the position of NE winds will cause damaging gales on the eastern quadrant. Look at 900hpa winds from GFS, its rather intense windshear!!! Its like a landphoon like we had in Alice Springs couple seasons ago.
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
Registered: 28/10/2003
Loc: Withcott...on the eastern side...
I will be keeping a particularly close eye on that possible 2nd low. On the 5 Feb I will be swimming 2km in the macintyre river at goondiwindi for the hell of the west triathlon. A couple of hundred mm would make it interesting!
Agreed definitely 2 discrete LOWS this first oe is a done deal moving SE over Queensland or perhaps SSE depending on trough strength.
Second LOW movement uncertain - weak Central Oz ridging will battle it out with mid level westerlies from the monsoon. Second LOW's movement is anyone's guess at this stage. Favoured scenario is a quasi stationary position in the southern gulf for days on end as the steering influences battle it out.
judging from the two GFS images, I reckon there could be a high risk of tornadoes with the two monsoon lows, because, as the low spins clockwise, very strong windshear is going to occur between the northwest winds and northeast winds on the eastern side of the lows, I'm not suggesting that there will be a major outbreak of tornadoes, but the potential is there for severe weather.
this low will need alot of south in it to get to central NSW . Even from where it is now a steady SE movement will have it heading off the SE QLD coast . As it is still moving east pretty quickly im thinking the models will be on an almost continuos update . Gotta love summer and the monsoon
#1064510 - 26/01/201220:21Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: nitso]
OzCyChaser Trav
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
Originally Posted By: nitso
Agreed definitely 2 discrete LOWS this first oe is a done deal moving SE over Queensland or perhaps SSE depending on trough strength.
Second LOW movement uncertain - weak Central Oz ridging will battle it out with mid level westerlies from the monsoon. Second LOW's movement is anyone's guess at this stage. Favoured scenario is a quasi stationary position in the southern gulf for days on end as the steering influences battle it out.
One thing is for certian, it's not goin anywhere near yeppoon. Associated advection is the only hope on the cap coast.
_________________________
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
#1064560 - 26/01/201221:21Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Sandfly]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
As having the monsoonal trough being over Mt Isa and Whitsundays by tomorrow afternoon this is a hint that the ML is going to be as close as central part rather than far southwest?
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Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
#1064574 - 26/01/201221:41Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: MathewTownsend]
Southern Oracle
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Southern Victoria
So is the upper low to be blamed for one of the Models showing this Retrograde west a little and alter path to direct Sth once it reaches Qld/NSW border . What will happen to the Upper Low , will it be shunted into the advancing / advected Cold front / Cut Off before this Low gets down below 30 S . ??
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Quote " If you want to save our world, you must hurry. We don't know how much longer we can withstand the nothing. "
Roma has just recorded 58mm to 6pm in a storm today. These falls are only saturating the ground in preparation for the weekend/next week event. There'll be a lot of nervous people around watching this.
#1064654 - 26/01/201223:39Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Lani]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
It seems the low going to be top of Mt Isa soon. Far more north than GFS does. This is getting very dangerous situation for the coasters.
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
I agree matt... it's movement atm seems to more inline with Access which has this doing a slight dip in the GOC before coming south... though i still don't think it will cross back out to see around yepoon like access has it later in the weekend.....
Access - Yepoon - Monday (30/1) GFS - Dips to NSW and sits over Northern NSW after... NoGaps - As per GFS but possibly a little further west now. CMC - Dips to NSW but disappates in Northern NSW I think. EC - Dips to NSW also.
Seems Access is the outlier on this atm. interesting.
I reckon a lot more east in it than the models were picking. Probably has something to do with the strength of the NW'ly flow form the monsoon. Question is, just how far east it will get before it pulls a hard right and heads south?
#1065759 - 27/01/201222:30Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Rain lover (SHAZZA)]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Not from this system Shazza. It will, however, affect large tracts of inland Queensland and northern NSW, It will certainly increase inflows into the Darling River system and has the potential for some major flooding for it and its catchments.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole
#1065777 - 27/01/201222:39Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Inclement Weather]
vpprt
Weather Freak
Registered: 21/12/2010
Loc: Australia
Nice monsoon low, down to 993 hPa in one of the analyses. Not quite as good as the 'Landphoon' of 2006 which got down to 988 hPa, which was over the Tanami desert lol.
Nevertheless, still great structure and inflows of 35 kts on previous ASCAT passes.
Like i said before, I hope this things zips out of Qld. Hate for the West to flood five years in a row.
Hi all , first ever post in WZ , that Low is really mobile now , looks like most probably those central towns of Roma , Charleville , St George , etc are in for a wet stretch ,been a fascinating system to follow thus far.
Should be fairly easy to track the progress. Plenty of observation posts in the general vicinity.
I would suggest 3 stations to watch in the short term which might be important to ascertain which parts of Central QLD are going to be affected are Mt Isa, Cloncurry and Julia Creek.
Current observations for those 3 stations (at 10pm) were
Mt Isa - gusting to 37kmh - S - 999.3 Cloncurry - gusting to 46kmh - SSW - 996.9 Julia Creek - gusting to 46kmh - E - 997.4
By my calculations this puts the LLCC heading more towards Julia Creek than 06Z GFS forecast or about 100km further East. Anyone care to speculate whether this might shift the spread of heaviest falls 100km further to the East as the low gets further South or does this mean it will take a more Southerly track through the night and shift back closer to the GFS predicted track?
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).
Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Mt Isa - gusting to 31kmh - S - 999.7 Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - S - 995.9 Julia Creek - gusting to 48kmh - E - 996.0 Richmond - gusting to 22kmh - ENE - 1000.9
Edited by Locke (28/01/201200:18) Edit Reason: corrected timing
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).
Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Final obs before I crash for the evening. At midnight.
Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - SSE - 994.7 Julia Creek - gusting to 54kmh - NE - 994.2
So perhaps in between Cloncurry and Julia Creek. I will be interesting getting up in the morning to find out where it is.
I feel that even though its a little East of the GFS forecast, the froecast will still be reasonably accurate. I cant yet see it being far enough east to bring substantial rainfall to SE QLD
Edited by Locke (28/01/201201:19) Edit Reason: corrected pressure
I may be completely wrong but to the naked eye the low looks to be further east than what GFS expected it to be at this point in time. Wonder just how much further east it will push and how much longer before it starts heading SSE as GFS expects?
Observations at 7am for stations that may become relevant today, as well as the ones Locke was following last night. Wind speeds are gusts.
Cloncurry - 19km/hr - W - 1000.3 hPa Julia Creek - 39km/hr - NW - 999.0 hPa Richmond - 59km/hr - N - 999.7 hPa Trepell Airport (80km SW of McKinlay)- 37km/hr - SW - 998.9 hPa Winton - 59km/hr - NE - 996.9 hPa Longreach - 28km/hr - ENE - 1000.9 hPa Blackall - 24hm/hr - ENE - 1004. hPa
Lowest recorded pressure - 991.2 hPa at Julia Creek, 2:02am Highest wind gusts recorded - 82km/hr at Julia Creek, 2:30am
Just looking outside, the clouds appear to be moving in from the northwest towards the southeast, which seems to indicate to me that the system is still to the north of Longreach. This is backed up by pressure readings in Winton and Longreach. A pity that we don't have more AWS's out here
Edited by Rawhide (28/01/201208:55)
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Cloncurry - 17km/hr - W - 1001.2 hPa Julia Creek - 39km/hr - NW - 1000.0 hPa Richmond - 46km/hr - N - 1000.5 hPa Trepell Airport (80km SW of McKinlay)- 32km/hr - SW - 999.9 hPa Winton - 44km/hr - NNE - 996.9 hPa Longreach - 28km/hr - ENE - 1000.8 hPa Blackall - 35hm/hr - ENE - 1003.0 hPa
Pressure rising in towns along the Flinders Highway, virtually steady elsewhere
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
That last set of obs would certainly place the centre of the low to the West of Winton. It also appears to have weakened considerably overnight when you you look at the water vapour loop.
If it tracks along that path and the low passes over Moree, SE QLD could get a decent drenching I would of thought? GFS has the low passing straight over Bourke on Sunday with all the rain and wind to the East of it. If you were to push those rain and winds a couple of hundred kms east (the distance between Bourke and Moree) the results could be pretty bad for SE QLD. http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast?s...nefc=#stormcast
Next GFS update should be out shortly, will be interesting!
yep , correct, spared of anything real nasty was where i was goin , unlike those border areas like gundi / mungindi where it is also damp already.My concern would be out there.
Julia Creek - 35km/hr - WNW - 1000.6 hPa Richmond - 50km/hr - NNW - 1001.1 hPa Trepell - 37km/hr - WSW - 1000.9 hPa Winton - 65km/hr - N - 996.8 hPa Longreach - 35km/hr - ENE - 1000.0 hPa Blackall - 44hm/hr - ENE - 1002.6 hPa Charleville - 30km/hr - ENE - 1005.4 hPa
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Sorry ISAY, from the BOM page as per Wet-ish's link. Not sure what is going with Longreach radar, they may be wind finding. Just went for a drive 50km out of town, rather wet and windy, starting to become more so here in town.
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Julia Creek - 30km/hr - WNW - 1000.9 hPa Richmond - 39km/hr - NNW - 1001.5 hPa Trepell - 37km/hr - WSW - 1001.1 hPa Winton - 59km/hr - N - 996.6 hPa Longreach - 48km/hr - NE - 999.8 hPa Blackall - 41hm/hr - ENE - 1002.3 hPa Charleville - 28km/hr - ENE - 1004.9 hPa
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Sorry ISAY, from the BOM page as per Wet-ish's link. Not sure what is going with Longreach radar, they may be wind finding. Just went for a drive 50km out of town, rather wet and windy, starting to become more so here in town.
No worries mate. Hows the river looking? Lots of water in the warrego, see how she handles a bit more to come
The Thomson is looking a bit full. Would need big falls in the Muttaburra/Aramac region t push levels past minor flooding however.
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Im suppose to be studying. Ha this is better to watch. Have family out Tanbar Stn, they have had 20ml and waiting for this rain. They lost a fair bit of feed in the fires.
Nice to see you're getting some enjoyment out of this, what the!
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Winton - 57km/hr - NNW - 997.2 hPa Longreach - 48km/hr - N - 998.5 hPa Blackall - 37hm/hr - NE - 1000.7 hPa Charleville - 37km/hr - NE - 1003.3 hPa Windorah - no gusts recorded, winds from SSE - 998.9 hPa - this station only reports every three hours.
Getting some good wind in Longreach in the last thirty minutes or so - gust of 57km/hr at 11:35am. Downstairs is flooded, though mainly due to my washing machine playing up again.
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Longreach radar showing a great outer band extending from Aramac through to Isisford and Jundah.
Virtually no rain falling into gauges though - Winton 0.4mm, Longreach nil, Blackall 6.4mm since 9am.
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
#1066440 - 28/01/201214:30Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Rawhide]
Sir BoabTree
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I Say:
It is a model and all models are suspect.
Also it shows accumulated rainfall not just rainfall in any one 24 hour period. On occasions they do get it almost right but with no means of telling which one is and which one isn't right is damn near impossible. The closer the time/date the clearer the possible outcome.
In Townsville we normally knock off at least one zero and that brings it into at least a more realistic total.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
Not really no, it's from GFS, it gives you an idea of the rainfall but it usually forecasts a lot more than what you actually will get.
Question, shouldn't this thread be located in the "Tropical Lows and Cyclones" section??
Ok thanks. Half of what it says will be a worry. It's not really a tropical low is it? and is in the Central Australia area. Well feels pretty central if you drive out here from the coast
Also it shows accumulated rainfall not just rainfall in any one 24 hour period. On occasions they do get it almost right but with no means of telling which one is and which one isn't right is damn near impossible. The closer the time/date the clearer the possible outcome.
In Townsville we normally knock off at least one zero and that brings it into at least a more realistic total.
Join the I and SAY and spell it backwards. Thats when I came on board.
As you say pity these things seem to favour the extreme
#1066629 - 28/01/201217:11Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: isaY]
Sir BoabTree
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 7/02/2007
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
I doubt it Isay but a damn good question anyway.
OK just my opinion and going on the synoptic charts but the BoM say No.
To spin up into anything in the Coral Sea it would need to first get there (It actually moving in the wrong direction), next move well off shore and maintain its shape for probably 48 hours or so to intensify, then if all 6 criteria for cyclogenisis (http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1012809/1/How_cyclones_form_or_Cyclogeni) are present and it did form then a steering influence of some sort would then have to push it back towards the coast.
The bands you see steaming out towards the east coast are just feeder bands. The actual centre of the depression is moving over the border into NSW and will continue heading south east until it dissapates somewhere in central SA.
_________________________
Rain YTD 1235mm May 1mm Teh WZ Spullin Knig - Dyslexics Untie Just because you are offended by something I post doesn't always make you right.
Thank you Sir, Yeah I know where the centre is, I'm in Charleville, I was talking about those "feeder bands" helping to create something in the Coral sea as from the image there seems to be something already there. But I guess not. Thanks for your knowledge
#1066750 - 28/01/201218:45Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: isaY]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Jeff Higgs has posted a video presentation on the SEQ/NE thread concerning this low and its impact on Western Queensland, I have reproduced it here FYI:
[quote=JEFF.H.]HSC Latest Forecast Video ...
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
#1066813 - 28/01/201219:54Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Scottie A]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Yes, agreed Scottie. EC has done a good job on this. However, credit where credit is due, GFS picked up on this first, but has lost the train of it towards the end.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
Agree, not even that much down here. Nice to see Winton on ABC news though.
_________________________ "I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington
Well I think we are getting the predicted rain for Longreach/Winton.
I am in Springsure CQ and we had recieved 130mm in 6 hrs from about 7pm tonight. We have had about an hours break and it is raining fairly heavy again now. All the creeks around the town areover which has cut the roads. The cell over us on the radar was just sitting there for hours. Will be interesting to see how much more we get.
we are at 165mm and still raining with plenty more on the radar.
The town has lost a water mains pipe that runs to the other side of town so some people dont have water. That along with a foot bridge has been swept away with the flooded creek.
Not bad totals SS & hope you're staying nicely high & dry. My son drove to Emerald Friday & I warned him of possibility of rain - hoping he can fly out today...
Emerald has had about 8mm I think, its crazy hey! We have had 200mm now over a 12 hr period. I am high and dry but there will be some that are not that lucky. The town is split in 2 and I will be stuck this side for the day I would say. The creeks are roaring
#1067364 - 29/01/201208:20Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: sure spring]
ColdFront
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 29/06/2008
Loc: Cairns
Here's a news article covering some rainfall totals from ABC. Some place copped 200mm. Nice rain indeed. A few more years and no doubt those areas will be begging for rain again as drought once again replaces flood.
FLOOD WARNING FOR BRADLEY'S GULLY TO CHARLEVILLE AND THE WARREGO RIVER Issued at 10:00 AM on Tuesday the 31st of January 2012 by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.
Heavy rainfall of up to 183mm has been recorded overnight in the Ward River catchment. Major flood levels are expected at Oak Park today. Rainfall of up to 125mm has affected Bradleys Gully catchment. Levels of up to 3 metres are expected early on Tuesday afternoon in Bradley's Gully at Charleville.
Bradleys Gully: Heavy rainfall of up to 125mm has been recorded overnight in the Bradley's Gully catchment. A major flood peak of about 2.5 metres was observed at Raceview at 3am. Levels of up to 3 metres are expected early on Tuesday afternoon in Charleville. Higher levels are possible if there has been significant unmeasured rainfall elsewhere in the Gully catchment. The peak level in March 2010 was 4.2 metres.
Ward/Langlo Rivers: 183mm has been recorded at Oak Park in the 24 hours to 9am Tuesday. Major flood levels are expected at Oak Park today. Rises will occur downstream to Binnowee with moderate flood levels at Binnowee on Wednesday.
Warrego River: Rainfall upstream of Augathella is expected to result in at least minor flood levels at Augathella during Tuesday. Moderate flood levels are expected at The 27 Mile Garden on Wednesday. Fast rises are expected at Charleville (Warrego River) today following heavy overnight rain between 27 Mile Garden and Charleville with minor flood levels possible.
Forecasts for Bakers Bend and areas downstream will be made as further information is available.
At Cunnamulla, a moderate flood peak of 7.8 metres is expected today.
#1071402 - 4/02/201219:37Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan -
[Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
I thought I might start a separate thread for this event as it is forecast to cover such a vast area. It is rare indeed to have such a significant tropical system affect an area crossing the Territory and then dipping so far south crossing into two states. This low is eventually forecast to affect NSW. To have such a system affect NSW will be very significant. There is a real risk of major flooding across the Darling River catchments in particular. Whilst there was initially a forecast of the monsoon low quickly sliding SE, there is now a prospect that it will stall over northern NSW before being finally swept out to sea. We shall see.
This is indeed what has happened. This is, in fact, all one event. What started as a monsoon low dipping down over western Queensland and NSW subsequently turned into a trough system that fed constant moisture into an ongoing upper trough and has now resulted in the present flooding.
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The member formerly known as the donut hole