There doesn't seem to be any threads covering what is happening with the Sun so this might be a slow moving thread but it may also turn out to be a very important longer term thread for us all to watch. re the future of the global climate and the solar influences on our climate,
We are currently close to halfway through Solar Cycle 24
Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.
NASA; Long Range Solar Forecast[ 2006 ] Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.
Quote:
Using historical sunspot records, Hathaway has succeeded in clocking the conveyor belt as far back as 1890. The numbers are compelling: For more than a century, "the speed of the belt has been a good predictor of future solar activity." If the trend holds, Solar Cycle 25 in 2022 could be, like the belt itself, "off the bottom of the charts."
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I did start one a year or so ago ROM, but it would be hard to find now. I was about the only one posting at the time! Few to get you going below. Cheers
Here are some of interest: "Solar changes help create cold northern winters Fluctuations in ultraviolet light can set up frigid, snowy conditionsBy Alexandra Witze Web edition : Monday, October 10th, 2011 Text Size Harsh winters in the United States and northern Europe may partly be the result of changes in ultraviolet radiation coming from the sun.
A new climate simulation study shows how fluctuations in ultraviolet light linked to the sun’s 11-year activity cycle could change winter weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere. The work appears online October 9 in Nature Geoscience.
“We hope this will open the door to improving ultralong-range predictions,” says co-author Adam Scaife, a climate modeler at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter, England.
Scientists have long noted anecdotal links between low solar activity and cold European winters: Part of the Little Ice Age, which gripped the region between about 1550 and 1850, coincided with a record low number of sunspots, which are one measure of solar activity. But until now, Scaife says, no one had found a physical explanation for how subtle changes in radiation hitting the top of Earth’s atmosphere could translate to changes in weather patterns at the surface.
The answer came from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment satellite. From 2004 to 2007, during the low points of the last solar cycle, the satellite measured a surprising drop-off in the amount of ultraviolet radiation coming from the sun, roughly five times greater than previously thought. “I thought, if that’s true, that’s going to do something interesting to the climate system,” Scaife says.
To test what might happen, the scientists put the big ultraviolet decline into the Met Office’s climate model, a massive computer program that can simulate how the ocean and atmosphere respond to such changes. With less ultraviolet radiation, the simulation suggested, parts of the upper atmosphere cooled more than usual and allowed winds to blow more from the east. The anomaly then got bigger and started to burrow down through the atmosphere to altitudes where weather patterns form. There, the changes affected how storms would normally grow, allowing cold weather to form over northern Europe and the United States.
These changes occurred only in winter, and not during every solar cycle minimum the model analyzed. But over time, the scientists found, more winters saw these cold patterns form during solar minimum than during solar maximum. “It’s changing the odds of what kind of winter you’re going to get by a significant amount,” Scaife says.
At the same time, weather patterns over southern Europe and Canada were milder than normal, essentially canceling out the chill of northern Europe and the United States. The new work thus can’t say much about whether changes in solar radiation affect global temperatures, Scaife says. Other natural factors also affect the severity of winters, including volcanic eruptions and semi-regular weather patterns like El Niño.
Kunihiko Kodera, a sun-climate researcher at Nagoya University in Japan, says the new model seems to capture all the steps in the atmosphere, but small details as to how warm or cold it got over particular landmasses may make it difficult to predict localized weather changes...." http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/...orthern_winters
"Solar cycle to cause global natural disasters? 03.11.2011 Life on Earth depends on the Sun. It is the solar activity that can show influence on climate changes on Earth. The solar cycle currently moves towards its maximum. Can it cause any problems to humans? Scientists say that it should not lead to global disasters because they have never occurred in 400 years of observations.
The solar activity implies the appearance of spots on the Sun. The number of those spots may reach their maximum and then reduce to minimum during certain periods of time. For the first time in history, sun spots were discovered in 1611. The discovery became a surprise for astronomers: they previously thought that the sun was something unchangeable.
It was later determined that the number of sun sports changes, albeit not chaotically: they multiply at first and then decrease in number. Such a cycle may last from eight to fourteen years, although most often it continues for eleven years.
Solar cycles may differ from each other from the point of view of their intensity. Sometimes, a maximum of such a cycle is very hard to distinguish from its minimum. Such situation was observed from 1645 to 1715 - the so-called Maunder Minimum (after English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder, who discovered the phenomenon). The number of spots on the sun reduced considerably: there were only 50 of them instead of the usual amount of 40-50 thousand spots. The lion's share of sun spots is located in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.
0 SharePrint version Font Size Send to friend This coincided with the so-called Little Ice Age that lasted from the 14th to the 19th centuries. That was the period of unusually cold weather on the territory of Europe and America (average temperatures during the recent 2,000 years were the lowest). The weather was relatively smooth and warm from the 10th to the 13th centuries, with mild winters and no droughts. During the 1310s, heavy rains and severe winters destroyed harvests and fruit gardens in England, Scotland, France and Germany.
Frequent ground frosts and snowfalls occurred even in the south of Europe. The weather on the east coast of the USA became a lot colder, whereas in central and western areas the climate conditions were extremely dry, with dust storms.
During the 16th century, average temperatures raised, winters became milder. In the 17th century, global temperatures dropped by 1-2 degrees Centigrade. The Thames, the Danube, the Adriatic Sea and the Turkish Straits would freeze in wintertime.
In spite of the fact that the Little Ice Age lasted longer than the Maunder Minimum, it presumably occurred because of the reduction of the solar activity. The theory was subsequently confirmed through the analysis of carbon-14 and other isotopes (beryllium-10, for example) in trees and glaciers. Interestingly enough, the Maunder Minimum coincided with the reign of Louis XIV (1643-1715), who was known as the Sun King.
Thus, according to scientists, 18 minimums of solar activity have occurred during the recent 8,000 years. The Spoerer Minimum (1450-1540) and the Dalton Minimum (1790-1820) were the most notable ones.
The reasons that led to the appearance of sun spots became clear to scientists only in the first half of the 20th century. It was discovered that the spots were of magnetic nature. The magnetic substance inside the Sun is not stable: it moves and may sometimes come to the surface of the star, which may lead to the displacement of poles. The full cycle, when the poles return to their places, lasts for 22 years. The cycle of eleven years is known to science a lot better because it is easy to detect it with the help of calculations and observations." http://english.pravda.ru/science/mysteries/03-11-2011/119524-solar_cycle-0/
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Plus...
"Low solar activity link to cold UK winters By Mark Kinver Science and environment reporter, BBC News
A period of low solar activity could lead to more cold winters in the UK
The 'Big Freeze' explained The UK and continental Europe could be gripped by more frequent cold winters in the future as a result of low solar activity, say researchers.
They identified a link between fewer sunspots and atmospheric conditions that "block" warm, westerly winds reaching Europe during winter months.
But they added that the phenomenon only affected a limited region and would not alter the overall global warming trend.
The findings appear in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
"By recent standards, we have just had what could be called a very cold winter and I wanted to see if this was just another coincidence or statistically robust," said lead author Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, UK...." http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/1064221#Post1064221
A substantial portion of the climate variability in the Atlantic sector is associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with variations occurring on a wide range of scales. The influence of solar activity (expressed by various indices) on the NAO has been studied by a number of authors. Having reviewed the information available to him, Lamb (1972, p. 252) noticed several tendencies in the surface parameters in relation to solar activity. These tendencies included:
Strong development of the mid-latitude westerlies, Icelandic low and Azores high around the middle of the declining phase of solar activity; Strong meridional and cellular circulation systems at some stage during the more rapid rises of solar disturbance and greatest frequency of very strong anomalies of pressure and temperature (intense systems); Also (perhaps later) during the ascent, a phase of strong middle latitudes westerlies, strong Icelandic low and Azores high, seems particularly liable to occur. More recently, Bucha and Bucha (1998) found a correlation between geomagnetic activity and sea level pressure variations similar to the NAO for the period 1970 to 1996. They suggested a mechanism based on winds generated in the polar thermosphere following geomagnetic storms.
Bochnicek and Hejda (2005) demonstrated that during the winter periods (January–March) of the years 1963–2001 high geomagnetic activity was nearly always associated with a positive phase of the NAO, whereas low geomagnetic activity tended to couple with the negative phase. Palamara and Bryant (2004) and Fujita and Tanaka (2007) found a similar relationship with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM). According to Thejll et al. (2003), who studied the relationship between the geomagnetic index Ap and the NAO for the period 1949-2000, the correlation was high and significant only since about 1972. However, for the period 1949–1972 no significant correlations were found at the surface while significant correlations still existed in the stratosphere. This might indicate that the solar forcing, primarily acting in the stratosphere, is propagating its influence downward in the later period but not in the earlier.
A robust relationship between solar cycle variations, proxied by the 10.7 cm solar radio flux, and the NAM has been found by Ruzmaikin and Feynman (2002). In particular, the NAM index was found to be systematically more negative (corresponding to a weaker polar jet) during low solar activity (Ruzmaikin et al., 2004).
Kodera (2002, 2003) showed that the spatial structure of the NAO varies significantly according to the phase of the solar cycle. During solar maximum phases, the NAO covers the Northern Hemisphere and extends into the stratosphere, which is similar to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Thompson and Wallace, 1998), except for the Pacific sector. By contrast, for minimum solar phases, the NAO is confined to the Atlantic sector and to the troposphere.
Boberg and Lundstedt (2002, 2003) showed that variations of the NAO index could be correlated with the electric field strength of the solar wind. Using geopotential height data they found a strong correlation between the electric field strength of the solar wind and pressure variations in the stratosphere and troposphere. For the tropospheric pressure the influence is confined to the North Atlantic and resembles the action of the NAO.
On a secular time scale, Kirov and Georgieva (2002) found a negative correlation between the NAO index and sunspot activity: the index had a maximum during the period of low solar activity in the late 19th and early 20th century and a minimum during the period of high solar activity in the 1950s and 1960s. However, since the data covers only one secular cycle, their conclusion is not statistically sound. In their later work, addressing the issue of instability in solar terrestrial relationships, Georgieva et al. (2007) underscored the importance of asymmetry between sunspot numbers in the northern and southern solar hemispheres. They hypothesize that when the southern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to strengthening of the zonal atmospheric circulation, and when the northern solar hemisphere is more active, increasing solar activity in the secular solar cycle leads to weakening of the zonal circulation.
There are also a number of works that have examined the effect of solar activity on climatic variables other than the NAO (but often closely related to the NAO). Here, for brevity, we will mention just one of those works, because it underscores the importance of the 22-year Hale cycle, which manifests itself in reversal of polarity of sunspots from one 11-year cycle to another. According to Bochkov (1978), during even cycles of solar activity and on its ascending branch, the Barents Sea is characterized by suppressed cyclonic activity, negative anomalies of sea and air temperature and increased ice cover. In contrast, during the decreasing branch of solar activity (2-5 years after its maximum), the Barents Sea tends to be warmer than normal. The situation during the odd cycles of solar activity is less clear." http://www.climatelogic.com/trends/north-atlantic/effect-solar-activity.html
This was mooted by the late Dr Theodor Landscheidt many years ago, though one struggles to keep up with his complex knowledge & complex solar insights... http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/solarnao.htm
I reckoned that there was a thread somewhere on Solar, BD but couldn't readily find it in recent past thread history so thanks for that info above. I have obviously struck a chord with you on this May there be many more on this interesting subject from those life forms living on the third rock from the Sun!
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Well since I use solar in my models all the time, yes, I am interested greatly in these connections Also of interest solar-climate is new artcile on WUWT Cycle 25 forecast to be lowest in 300years http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/fi...ars/#more-55458 Cheers PS Which you first posted ROM I now see, LOL but I was busy and just skimmed the topic headline! I will read in more detail tonight!
adon
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5038
Loc: Not tellin!
Would be interested in the effect that would have on our local climate. As has been said before there is very little evidence about the climate here during cold periods but it is a little scary to think what could happen(cold dry desert etc) But if we were to have some sort of snow covered winters and cool damp summers it would work out somehow.
Some more very comprehensive info from JoNova's site on David Archibald's claims of a major global cooling episode due to the low solar activity within the next decade and a half. David Archibald is based in WA.
If Archibald proves to be any where near correct it could be devastating for global food production as a cold climate is generally an arid climate. Plus great swathes of Canada, Russia and Siberia and the central Asian Republics with their extreme continental climates will become too cold with too short growing seasons to grow anything substantial in crop production.
Here in Australia along with all western countries we have another potentially severe crop production problem looming if this forecast drop in global temperatures actually occurs. Over the last decade and a half of crop breeding everywhere in the western world crop breeding has been specifically orientated towards breeding varieties that can tolerate extremes of heat.
This is an unrecognised problem arising from the spurious claims of global warming and the role of the research funding organisations that would not consider any other crop breeding strategies. And that strategy will backfire very badly if there is a sustained and significant drop in global and local temperatures with a further possible fall of in crop production due to only varieties unsuited to colder climates being available to farmers for at least a decade until new cold tolerant, short season varieties can be bred.
We cannot just take a variety from say Canada or Russia with a short growing season characteristic and use it straight up due to unique growing conditions in each locality. We can't even grow most varieties from say the northern Mallee in southern Victoria as the crops simply don't perform yield wise or even quality wise as well as a lack of disease tolerance and resistance to local crop diseases. Crop varieties have to be bred for soil types, climate , diseases and etc and generally only do well in a specific range of soil types and a specific climate.
With the increasingly unbelievable intolerance for any alternative views and any questioning of the claimed global warming from anthropogenic CO2 it is possible that the greens and the climate alarmists have created a situation where there may be wide spread hunger and even starvation as a direct result of those of the global warming cult refusing to countenance in any way any alternative views or to provide an alternative strategy if they were proven wrong.
I saw this on many occassions when in my role of a trustee for our local grain research organisation, I challenged on a number of occassions, the total concentration on breeding for a drastically warming climate. I was simply fobbed off with the comments that i didn't really know what I was talking about as there was a "consensus" on monotonic global warming from anthropogenic CO2 that could lead to a disastrous situation for mankind. and of course I was a "denier". At least I wasn't accused, using that totally unimaginative and tired old mantra of the more fanatical global warmers, of being financed by Big Oil! If only!! sigh!!
If and it still is a very big "IF", major global cooling does come to pass within the next decade and a half and global crop and food production declines significantly as a result then the current warmists and the radical enviros will have to answer to humanity for their fanaticism and unbelievable stupidity. Some of them may well finish up facing mankind in the courts of the world to explain their actions and most will be judged in any case by a [ hungry ] public opinion and that won't be at all pretty. In fact it could be deadly for some of the more exposed and fanatical global warmers.
Here in Australia crop production could well rise as almost alone in the developed world our crop yields are very limited by heat during flowering and seed set as well as lack of water. The southern Australian climate may become more arid but cooler temperatures in northern Australia plus copious rainfall may lead to our crop production areas moving north and that might mean with more rainfall that our crop yields and production might actually improve.
Australia might not be greatly affected for a couple of decades of a colder global climate as being surrounded by very large ocean areas, the continent being small by continental standards elsewhere, the ameliorating temperature effects and the sheer amount of global ocean heat content of the oceans will reach deep into the continent so reducing the continental temperature and rainfall extremes seen in other major and much larger continental areas.
The next couple of decades will, just like those past, be interesting times indeed for humanity.
BD you might like to drop RWM a PM as he has some interest in this area although he doesn't post about it too much because he gets shot down for some of his statements. I have had a couple of personal discussions about just this at WZ Meets here in Townsville and you might find him a font of information and personal observations about solar activity and the resulting weather conditions.
ROM I agree fully with your sentiments about the AGW and CAGW mobs running rough shod over us who disbelieve their mantras and cult rantings. In every debate there should be a free flow of ideas from both sides but I object most strongly to being told that the "science is in" and no arguements will be accepted.
_________________________
lexDyscis luRe!! Scientific knowledge is always tentative and subject to revision. The entire history of science is littered with discarded theories once thought to be incontrovertible truths. Prof David Deming
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
Curent Solar quiet may herald major changes to next solar cycle...watch for more news This will affect many things on earth if it occurs including weather and climate....
"QUIET SUN: Considering the fact that Solar Maximum is only about one year away, the sun is experiencing some remarkable spells of quiet. One of them is underway right now. There have been no significant flares for more than five days, and the sun's X-ray output has flatlined:
What's going on? In fact, solar activity is on the rise. For instance, an X-class solar flare on Jan. 27th triggered the strongest solar radiation storm since 2005. Also, auroras have been sighted recently as far south as Virginia and Oklahoma. The quiet interregnums are a sign that the current solar cycle, while active, is not quite as strong as other solar cycles that preceded it--like a mild hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico. According to this point of view, temporary spells of low activity are to be expected. On the other hand, some researchers believe the quiet holds greater significance; it could foreshadow a major drop in solar activity. This is controversial, however, because forecasting the 11-year solar cycle is still an infant science. Indeed, surprises may be in the offing. Staytuned for updates"
"National Solar Observatory What's Down with the Sun? Major Drop in Solar Activity Predicted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THE FOLLOWING RELEASE WAS RECEIVED JOINTLY FROM THE NATIONAL SOLAR OBSERVATORY IN SUNSPOT, NEW MEXICO, AND THE SOLAR PHYSICS DIVISION OF THE AMERICAN ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY AND IS FORWARDED FOR YOUR INFORMATION (FORWARDING DOES NOT IMPLY ENDORSEMENT BY THE AMERICAN ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY). Rick Fienberg, AAS Press Officer: rick.fienberg@aas.org, +1 202-328-2010 x116. ** This release was previously distributed to journalists under an embargo that has since expired. {RTF} **
June 14, 2011
Contacts:
Dave Dooling NSO Education and Public Outreach +1 575-434-7015 (office); +1 575-921-8736 (cell) dooling@nso.edu
Text & Images: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release
WHAT'S DOWN WITH THE SUN? MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).
As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.
The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/
"This is highly unusual and unexpected," Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. "But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."
Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun's 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun's magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.
Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.
"We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now," Hill explained, "but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all."
In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth's magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.
Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.
Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force's coronal research program at NSO's Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the "rush to the poles," the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun's faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO's 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.
"A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun," Altrock explained. "Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun."
Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.
"In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees," Altrock said. "Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we'll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23's magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case."
All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.
"If we are right," Hill concluded, "this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate."
In response to news inquiries and stories, Dr. Frank Hill issued a follow-up statement:
"We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing."
# # # These results have been presented at the current meeting of the AAS/SPD.
Citations:
16.10: "Large-Scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum -- Where Is Cycle 25?" by Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T.P. Larson, J. Schou & M. J. Thompson.
17.21: "A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor" by W. C. Livingston, M. Penn & L. Svalgard.
18.04: "Whither Goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona" by R. C. Altrock."
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
We are now it seems quite likely to enter a Grand Minimum of sunspot activity...uncharted territory...will we see times like when "the world had no summer" and the Thames froze over...as a Grand Minimum is associated with cold earth temperatures from history! " February Update: A dramatic fall in activity experienced this month with the LSC at 18.4, SIDC 33.1, NOAA unadjusted 50.1 (prov). SIDC for the 11th straight month over counting compared with NOAA, with the difference again moving closer this month. February was another month of heavy speck activity resulting in a substantial difference between the LSC and other counting methods. The magnitude of the fall this month might persuade some to think cycle max has already arrived, time will tell but the current trend is very different to previous cycles, unless we compare with the Group Sunspot Count of SC5.
SC24 is still on track to matching SC5." SC5= Solat Cycle 5 back in 1798...Interesting days ahead...
"My predictions show that SC24 will be similar to SC5. The same Solar system forces are in play at similar timings and strength (SC24 perhaps showing a stronger disruption strength, which indicates that SC24 should be a smaller cycle than SC5). This graph using the SIDC monthly count from Jan 1798 will compare the Layman's Count from Jan 2008. The Layman's Count is the only count that can properly compare with the old SIDC (Wolf) measures. SC14 has been added for interest (starts Jan 1901) along with the GSN value from Hoyt & Schatten's alternative count which offers another comparison. All 4 records beginning at the end of their previous cycle (where the downramp meets the bottom). The unsmoothed numbers showing the big swings in SC14."
"Writing in Environmental Research Letters (2010), Mike Lockwood et al. have verified that solar activity does seem to have a direct correlation with Earth’s climate by influencing North Atlantic blocking (NAO) as Shindell has shown. The reason that the scope of the study is limited to that area, or at most Europe, is that it is one of the few regions that there is a reliable, continuous temperature record going back to the Little Ice Age.
They noted further “solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century. The Maunder minimum (about 1650–1700) was a prolonged episode of low solar activity which coincided with more severe winters in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. Motivated by recent relatively cold winters in the UK, we investigate the possible connection with solar activity. We identify regionally anomalous cold winters by detrending the Central England temperature (CET) record using reconstructions of the northern hemisphere mean temperature.
We show that cold winter excursions from the hemispheric trend occur more commonly in the UK during low solar activity, consistent with the solar influence on the occurrence of persistent blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect. Average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest an 8% chance of a return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29): the results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.”
The last extended solar minimum was the deepest and longest in over a century.
The 2009/10 winter with a record negative arctic oscillation and persistent negative NAO was the coldest in the UK and the southeastern United States since 1977/78, coldest in Scotland since 1962/63, coldest ever recorded in parts of Siberia. Coldest weather since 1971/72 was reported in parts of North China. December 2010 was the second coldest December in the CET since 1659 in the Little Ice Age."
Registered: 07/02/2008
Posts: 5443
Loc: Eastern A/Hills SA
I have not looked for a while, as not much happening on sun till now, So I missed one already, 6.1 magnitude yesterday but 3 to 6 5/3 to 13/3 forecast 6.0 or more magnitude(that is with counting yesterdays) & 1 to 4 23/2 to 2/4 & 4 to 7 11/4 to 27/4 Cheers
Hi BD, Spot on again as I checked the other thread where you had stated 3 within the timeframe set and they occurred. I would so love to see the work and calculus you do behind the scenes
The Sun's AR1429 (sunspot) is very active, even the sunspot count has shot up to 105 from the low count of 20 a week ago. I haven't checked what is coming around the far side of the Sun yet.
Here is a great shot of the X1Class event yesterday showing the two ribbons forming along either side of the flare.
There is a really large coronal hole as well, with a strong wind stream due to hit Earth shortly, which will exacerbate things.
Here is the barcaroller's volcano and earthquake watch... he has commented on a couple of locations and the possibility of a 7M quake. Interesting next couple of days that is for sure.
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
I'm cleaning out my wardrobe of links and I came across this one, quite a lengthy blog, actually a fantastic read - its dated 2007 so it's quite old, forgot I had it. It's between one of the SDO scientists at the time and climate folk and re reading some of it tonight I just love the range of topics it covers and analysis.
Enjoy - I'll post some more shortly
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
#1095220 - 23/03/201223:54Re: Solar Cycles & Climate
[Re: SunnyDays]
Arnost
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3692
Loc: Just a bit north of the "coath...
That brings back memories - Leif had some classic discussions with a range of people and the "education" of a lot of people. Leif also participated on the SolarCycle 24 boards a lot at this time. Also lots of great discussions and education.
Noone can find the solar cycle (from the variance in total solar irradiance) in the temperature record.
So, either TSI varies by more than the reconstructions say (and in the satellite record, there is hardly any change) or one has to look at other solar indicators to find an impact on the climate.
The problem is that TSI accounts for about 99% of the energy that the Earth receives from the Sun so the effects have to be indirect, such reduced magnetic field leading to more cloud-causing CGRs etc.
The TSI solar cycle (calculated at a slightly higher than expected impact on temperatures) versus Hadcrut3. I don't see it in there.
#1095245 - 24/03/201206:57Re: Solar Cycles & Climate
[Re: Bill Illis]
Arnost
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 10/02/2007
Posts: 3692
Loc: Just a bit north of the "coath...
Bill, you are sort of right. I did find a weak hint of the geomagnetic influence in the record after taking out the "natural" variability influencers like ENSO/AMO/volc aerosol etc. Look to the Ap Index rather than TSI...
_________________________ Exceptions are pernicious, they conceal laws...
Previous Topic
Index