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#1065498 - 27/01/2012 19:37 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Raindammit]
Chookie Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1946
Loc: Kirwan
which means what raindammit? do u think it will come further east then they think?

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#1065535 - 27/01/2012 20:08 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Chookie]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12989
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
I don't think so. The Low should slip SSE on the Eastern side of the (admittedly quite weak) upper level Low to it's SSW in the next 12 hours.
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#1065750 - 27/01/2012 22:25 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Raindammit]
Rain lover (SHAZZA) Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 15/02/2008
Posts: 1054
Loc: Rockhampton
Bye Bye any chance of rain for the coast!

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#1065759 - 27/01/2012 22:30 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rain lover (SHAZZA)]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5237
Loc: Diamond Valley
Not from this system Shazza. It will, however, affect large tracts of inland Queensland and northern NSW, It will certainly increase inflows into the Darling River system and has the potential for some major flooding for it and its catchments.
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#1065777 - 27/01/2012 22:39 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
vpprt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2010
Posts: 231
Loc: Australia
Nice monsoon low, down to 993 hPa in one of the analyses. Not quite as good as the 'Landphoon' of 2006 which got down to 988 hPa, which was over the Tanami desert lol.

Nevertheless, still great structure and inflows of 35 kts on previous ASCAT passes.

Like i said before, I hope this things zips out of Qld. Hate for the West to flood five years in a row.

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#1065781 - 27/01/2012 22:43 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Inclement Weather]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1133
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Hi all , first ever post in WZ , that Low is really mobile now , looks like most probably those central towns of Roma , Charleville , St George , etc are in for a wet stretch ,been a fascinating system to follow thus far.


Edited by BIG T (27/01/2012 22:46)

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#1065818 - 27/01/2012 23:20 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: BIG T]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Should be fairly easy to track the progress. Plenty of observation posts in the general vicinity.

I would suggest 3 stations to watch in the short term which might be important to ascertain which parts of Central QLD are going to be affected are Mt Isa, Cloncurry and Julia Creek.

Current observations for those 3 stations (at 10pm) were

Mt Isa - gusting to 37kmh - S - 999.3
Cloncurry - gusting to 46kmh - SSW - 996.9
Julia Creek - gusting to 46kmh - E - 997.4

By my calculations this puts the LLCC heading more towards Julia Creek than 06Z GFS forecast or about 100km further East. Anyone care to speculate whether this might shift the spread of heaviest falls 100km further to the East as the low gets further South or does this mean it will take a more Southerly track through the night and shift back closer to the GFS predicted track?
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065823 - 27/01/2012 23:25 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Squid Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/09/2005
Posts: 9535
Loc: Murgon
those obs put it east of mt isa and north of julia creek

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#1065833 - 27/01/2012 23:33 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Squid]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
That what I figure squid which puts it maybe 100km East of the 10pm 06Z GFS position. If that trend continued SE QLD comes into play.

Or should I say the extreme western parts like Toowomba and the western portion of the Wivenhoe catchment.


Edited by Locke (27/01/2012 23:34)
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065855 - 27/01/2012 23:47 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Observations at 10.30pm

Mt Isa - gusting to 39kmh - S - 999.5
Cloncurry - gusting to 43kmh - S - 996.7
Julia Creek - gusting to 48kmh - E - 996.6

And we might look a little further east at Richmond gusting to 24kmh - E - 1001.1
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065863 - 27/01/2012 23:54 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 873
Loc: North Point
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. Radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).

Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...
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"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065887 - 28/01/2012 00:14 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Monsoon low observations at 11pm

Mt Isa - gusting to 31kmh - S - 999.7
Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - S - 995.9
Julia Creek - gusting to 48kmh - E - 996.0
Richmond - gusting to 22kmh - ENE - 1000.9


Edited by Locke (28/01/2012 00:18)
Edit Reason: corrected timing
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065894 - 28/01/2012 00:17 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 873
Loc: North Point
New SWW is out. Nothing new expect they state the low as being "Near Cloncurry".

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ20032.txt
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"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065895 - 28/01/2012 00:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
kasandsas Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 8
Loc: New Farm, Brisbane
Western side of Darling Downs and Granite Belt included in the BOM warning...not sure that was in last time?

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#1065896 - 28/01/2012 00:21 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
kymm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/04/2008
Posts: 2261
Loc: Emerald, QLD
Originally Posted By: Rawhide
Very still and muggy in Longreach. "Gusting" to 11km/hr, pressure of 1004hPa, for what it is worth. Radar looks impressive, though, and the Thomson will be seeing rises this weekend (along with almost every other catchment).

Speaking of which, this event and the Hughenden storm last week is a good argument for a radar somewhere along the A6...


agree!!

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#1065899 - 28/01/2012 00:29 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: kasandsas]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: kasandsas
Western side of Darling Downs and Granite Belt included in the BOM warning...not sure that was in last time?


They were in the 6pm warning.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065903 - 28/01/2012 00:40 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
kasandsas Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/01/2011
Posts: 8
Loc: New Farm, Brisbane
Ok thanks Locke smile

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#1065906 - 28/01/2012 00:44 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: kasandsas]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Monsoon low observations at 11.30pm

Cloncurry - gusting to 57kmh - S - 995.3
Julia Creek - gusting to 54kmh - E - 995.2

Definitely heading through Julia Creek
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1065910 - 28/01/2012 00:48 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Locke]
Rawhide Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/09/2008
Posts: 873
Loc: North Point
So further east than forecast? Bad news?
_________________________
"I've been watchin birds more than insects recently, and the thing I've found with pigeons is: they've got wings but they walk a lot." - Karl Pilkington

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#1065927 - 28/01/2012 01:18 Re: Monsoon Low - Western QLD - 26 Jan - [Re: Rawhide]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Final obs before I crash for the evening. At midnight.

Cloncurry - gusting to 48kmh - SSE - 994.7
Julia Creek - gusting to 54kmh - NE - 994.2

So perhaps in between Cloncurry and Julia Creek. I will be interesting getting up in the morning to find out where it is.

I feel that even though its a little East of the GFS forecast, the froecast will still be reasonably accurate. I cant yet see it being far enough east to bring substantial rainfall to SE QLD


Edited by Locke (28/01/2012 01:19)
Edit Reason: corrected pressure
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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