All the possibilities for next 8 days are accurately (imo) portrayed by Ruckle.

This arvo's run leaves me feeling pessimistic - I dont like the persistency of the weak high "sausaging" below Vic atm. Tomorrow mornings model runs might be totally optimistic again leading me to chirp away as if I'd found a jar of happy pills.

Oh.. and a strong easterly wind this arvo here with a 17.2 - 29 C temperature range.

Yeah clouds in Far NW from Mildura is poring up to 46mm rain, as no clouds going down into Victoria yet.

I want the SE wind in Victoria to go away....

Storms are getting closer. Another small one, just starting to let go now. I've noticed the one's in front seeming to slow, and the rest merging from the back. May have an interesting night. Oops, and that clap of thunder is definitely closer.

I reckon you are in for a great night Blackie, sit out on that porch and enjoy!!

Yeah that really helped me Ruckle, except I have no clue where the water vapor images are but meh, you explained it well enough, the one thing is that front is around WA now is seeming to slow down and almost moving slightly with the cyclone if you know what I mean, or it could be a coincidence that its moving through while the cyclone starts to form more lol.

WV loop http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/wv_sat.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=12&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

Good cut off low at 200hpa even now, as mentioned on previous page, satellite is epic. Tending to rain across inland NSW now.

Speaking of BSCH they're thunderstorm charts are a bit off you'd have to think, no possible storms till 1pm monday when they're supposed to be clearing...

Water Vapor and humid belt is entering Northern Victoria as i can see cirrus and middle level clouds above my house is thickening out of thin air and no SE wind thanks to N wind...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/austeast/movies/gmswv/gmswvjava.html

i just got home from a long day including alot of driving to look WZ's outlook and their sat/synoptic maps are showing No front , Cut off and Inland Troughs all week . This could get V- Interesting Nth of the Divide . Better check other Models . Thought one of you guys would be onto it , but unless it just changed i"ve read back form Page 2 and very little chat Guys . Whats going on , am I the only one on " Night Watch " again ???? lol

Oh No . Just read Ruckles post ...... Looks like WZ has gone with CMC ??????? Wouldn't have thought I'd be saying that too many times in my life time. Well the Plot Thickens .......

Did a little Homework , this WZ product seems to deviate ( go off the rails ) on Tuesday . EC has a high replacing the Tasman Fast . And more Troughing , CMC is a little similar ( but really that Model is as Good as Throwing darts at pictures ) . GFS does Hint to something similar but different again . BOM has Lows ( yes Multiple ) springing out of Nowhere in the Bight ?

RetroGrading Upper Lows !!! Rolling into the Bight from the East ( Weather always runs backwards even for only 12 hrs once a Year ) .
Looks like I might need to Resort to SBT's Weather Rock real Shortly . Only confidence i have at the Mo' is that rain will drop Nth of the Divide , and The Far west coast will be Offshore / Northerly sunday Morning ( I hope ) . As for work well , thats next weeks problem ....... Will be amazing to see what actually happens ...... ( Nth of Said Divide could really do with a Good Drink starting to get Dry in Places . )

Well I am enthralled by all this, a tad bemused and confused lol but enthralled nonetheless. Today will be an interesting day. Tropical low motoring in a SE direction through QLD, big question remains whether upper low to its SW and really nicely visible on WV loops is strong enough to turn the tropical system S or even SSW later today and tonight before it dissolves and therefore gives VIC a higer chunk of moisture. Whether it does or not the upper low will generate another wide area of thunderstorm activity btw here and that low as the day goes on, surface trough should deepen a little which wont hurt that process either. Most models other than EC have in fact reasonably well scattered showers and storms in VIC by this afternoon even along and south of the divide, it is pretty humid, there might be seabreeze boundaries but gee Petros 's sausage high at 850,700 and 500hpa (although the last one is a little weaker) is still pretty strong in these parts. Intersting to see if that comes off, I think it should along the ranges at the very least.

EC and Nogaps have an interesting chunk of rain and storms heading towards N central parts by tomorrow arvo ahead of activity from the SW, this could make for some decent cumulative falls to the North and NE of the state.

Cant wait to get my chores done then do some serious weather watching.

BOM have storms forming over the ranges to our N this arvo which I reckon would track almost due E. Might be good to watch but dont like the chances of one drifting down over Maffra.

Still, I'll be keeping a good eye out during a humid and sweaty game of golf this arvo - 32 C expected. Fog remnants still burning off outside atm - a mild start to the day.

Geez - isnt inland QLD copping some weather over the past few days including right now!

Yeah Petros the whole of QLD has copped a pasting over the past week. A rather deep low that tracked down from the SW Gulf of Carpenteria must have been on the verge of a Tropical Storm system. A few lazy 150-200mm falls east of Mt Isa in the last 24 hours really illustrates the magnitude of moisture that is sitting in the upper half of Australia at the moment.

Ruckle your analysis last night was fantastic, it really gave me a better handle on the possible outcomes for VIC. My gut tells me that the North and North East of the state will probably get the best look in for this event rain wise, but with so much uncertainty I'm with the BOM in placing a bit of a blanket 'isolated showers and thunderstorms forecast' from today onwards.

A rather muggy 23.6C here with DP 16.6C (currently home in Sale). I expect to see some beefy Cu fields form over the foothills during the day only to be staved off by a roaring afternoon easterly hybrid seabreeze/wind due to the troughs location.

EDIT - Longer term, what role do we all think Cyclone Iggy will play? Any stronger fronts or troughs that can channel it through Vic will have a potential to replicate some of last years weather IMO!

Hot already ATM it is around 30.5C with a Dp of 16C! Feeling quite humid outside with barely any wind at all.

I am watching with interest. We really need rain, and 10mm wouldnt even settle the dust.

Oh & Fergus's is on to it (at 4.00am this morning mind you).

Very early Cu humilis going up over the foothills to our N at 11am (10am real time) so surely we will see some storms along the ranges later.

A lot will depend on weather the NE'ly system can overcome the seabreezes during the arvo.

If we dont get a seabreeze here, then our 32C will be more loke 37C by the feel of things outside atm.

Re Iggy Pengaz - have a look at the animated watervapour charts - it has already pulsed out some upper moisture into SW WA late yest. Having a lull now but someones going to cop the remnants!

BOM updating their forecast to 'outer northern suburbs'.

Cu popping up to the west of Melbourne (humilis bordering on mediocris). Despite the humidity and warmth it still lacks the 'feeling' anything interesting will happen here. We could do with some rain, just yesterday I noticed many of the oaks and plane trees round here have started to drop their leaves.

Interesting sky although what started going up nice and crisply has "rounded off" pretty warm at 500hpa according to sounding. Sky interesting to the NE as well. Just on the sounding, compared to 12 hrs prior, no change in temps at 500 and 700hpa but other heights either side of those have cooled a little bit in the last 12 hours. Its warmer at the surface so this has allowed the cloud development we see. Been S wind here at home since dawn but still passed 30. DP in the high teens.