The cool change/wind change comes through around mid/day, but since the rain won't really clear at that point. But yeah by evening im expecting below 20.

Went on a small chase earlier. Paky to Gumbuya Park LOL and was suprised to be met with white out conditions just past Nar Nar Goon. Cars were pulling over and alot of cars only doing about 60kms. The wind was insane and I would almost say that there was a microburst. After turning around I went to a high advantage point and there was raised dust in a small area of the storm.

The storms I was hoping for didnt happen, instead the ranges are now featureless blue from this vantage with a couple of distant areas of rain up there evident.

Was a great arvo to be on the beach at Seaspray, surf a lovely aqua/blue colour, only a light onshore breeze and the sea temp has warmed markedly to allow the tribe I delivered to swim basically continuously for 3 1/2 hours. Even Petros took his beerbelly in for an extended dunk much to the concern of the lifesavers there (from my perspective it seems like yesterday that I was one of them at the same place!).

28C at the beach and a 35.5C max here so no regrets for the arvo at the beach...

Now for tomorrows cool change and Maffra's rain prospects..... have a look at this AccR run for tomorrow morning when the rain should be accumulating. Note the location of the "hot air line" (normally near the QLD border in late Jan) - hard to describe it as a COOL change for us eh?



[edit] - baro dropped from 1011 to 1001 hPa here today... remarkable for the synoptics as I thought they would play out today?

Im suprised at the rainfall totals, but since thats Monday morning I guess I shouldn't be, also Petros that hot air line has been nudging Victoria for a while now, seems like it's never at the QLD border, it should start to cool down from here on out but early to mid February is still capable of handing out mid 30s.
EDIT: just out of curiousity, since I haven't really been checking these charts apart from this summer, where is the cold air line normally during winter?

Experiencing rather windy conditions here, we've just had to button down the hatches. A dust storm at the moment, but looks like on the radar rain not far away. Will keep you informed if anything out of the unusual happens.

and the rain has finally arrived here - very light - started about 5.30 this afternoon. Still warm and humid though 7 pm now and still raining ever so gently

Event totals do look like they will be pretty solid in the eastern half certainly round the NE and higher parts. Pretty ordinary here at home, almost dead calm.

27C, dead calm, 50% RH and just commenced raining lightly here now. Wish that would continue through to bed time!

33 degrees here, with a light northerly. Supposed to be 29% humidity but feels like 80% to me.
I have given up on predicting anything this weekend.
I am getting confused with some of the model predictions.

Im thinking that we'll get some rain from the band currently passing over Victoria, and then when the cold front passes through it'll add some extra rain.

Ant - we dont have a rain band crossing over Vic atm. We are under the influence of a humid airmass that has decended from NSW.

Have a look at the animated watervapour chart and you'll see what I'm talking about.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite/water-vapour

Ah I see, thanks Petros.

Gusty winds for the last 30 mins or so, temp back up to 31.7 and DP down to 15, the lowest its been all day here.

After a few drops tonight but no wind change, will be steaming by morning.

Yep - one of the heat index highest nights of the summer for many of us (including me) I reckon (I'm about to set the bedroom ceiling fan to max).

Good luck for storms tomorrow arvo everyone!

My fans have been on Max for a couple of hours now Petros.
Hate these northerlies.

Anyone else think that southern ocean front is sliding further south? If that happens, do we just end up with steam for a few more days or is there a cold air mass behind and north of the cloud band that I'm not seeing?

dlcat even when fronts slip into Tasmania we still get a wind change.

*smacks side of head* Too many restless nights here, I'd been looking at that and assumed that was the rain band, but no, that would be cool air with the front meeting humid ex tropical airmass causing rain band right?

That's how I see it, but Ant will know for sure.
As for restless nights, I think another one is here.

Upper low in SA looks to be on the move east. Incoming front might be starting to push things along. Still pretty gusty outside atm.