new thread for the new developing system.

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:04 pm WST on Tuesday 24 January 2012
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE Perth

A Tropical Low was located at 2 pm WST near 16.0S 112.6E,
that is 680 km north northwest of Exmouth, moving west at 25 kilometres per
hour.
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday as it moves
towards the west or west southwest. Late on Wednesday or on Thursday the system
may take a more southerly track, bringing it closer to the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Wednesday or Thursday, however
there is a possibility that coastal communities near the North West Cape,
including Coral Bay, Exmouth and Onslow, will experience gales on Friday.
Rainfall is likely to increase later in the week in coastal parts of the
Pilbara and on the west coast north of Cape Cuvier.


The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9 pm WST.



and the tech bulletin -

REMARKS:
System assigned T1.0 at 00Z. Yesterday the cloud system centre could not be
defined in an area less than 2.5 degrees. Overnight convection consolidated near
a developing low level circulation centre. ASCAT and VIS imagery show the LLCC
gradually becoming better defined but low level cloud lines are still poorly
organised.

The system has shown further improvement over the last 6 hours and FT is set at
1.5. Shear is generally low south of 15S and models indicate the system will
experience low shear for the next 72 hours. Combined with SSTs over 30 degrees
the system is expected to develop faster than the standard Dvorak rate and may
reach TC intensity by early tomorrow.

The subsequent track may develop on the rate of intensification with some models
indicating the system will take a southerly or south southeasterly track on
Thursday. On Friday the system is likely to be near 20S. SSTs decrease south of
20S and the system is likely to be slow moving which may cause upwelling and
reduce SSTs. As shear remains light, weakening in the longer term is more likely
to be due to low oceanic heat content.

The monsoon trough is expected to remain strong over the next few days,
resulting in strong northwesterly flow extending well to the east of the system
centre and bringing moderate swell and increased rainfall to coastal areas of
the Pilbara and Kimberley.

BOM sounds confident in this one forming, as they are already talking about it weakening!

Give it time - it'll happen... its in prime conditions to form, especially with above normal SST's

The latest track map.

gee i hope it curves before then, love to see it get closer to the coast and bring in some rain for the WA folk.

latest track map.

Latest 3 day Tropical Advice
An active monsoon trough north of Australia is producing scattered to widespread convection over tropical waters north of WA and the Timor and Arafura Seas.
There are two areas where the convection is showing some organisation, and hence potential developing tropical systems. A tropical system to the north of WA located 0200WST this morning near 16.1S 109.7E, 994hPa, moving westwards at 12 knots, is intensifying and expected to reach cyclone strength today.
A second tropical system lies close to the NT coast and was located at 0200WST near 13.6S 130.7E, 996hPa, and moving south southwest at 8 knots. Although it is quite possible this system may produce a period of gales along the coast today, the system is expected to shift to a southeast track taking it inland and hence not expected to become a significant system.

The likelihood of tropical cyclone development between 105E to 130E is considered high for today and remaining high for the next three days.

Both GFS and EC have a bit of a cut off LOW developing in the strong monsoonal flow and crossing into the west Kimberley??? Wonder if that will eventuate. The whole top end looks nice today.

Looks interesting Popeye. Maybe, (definitely), I am desperate for something out of this event but it looks like it. Saturday it shows it has crossed the coast just south of Broome as a LOW. Maybe the fact that the "proper" WA system is well of the coast might give this little fella a bit more of a chance to spin up before crossing?

From JTWC
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S
112.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. A 240214Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A
SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS) LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
POLEWARD OUTFLOW DEVELOPING AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 241100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON
IMPROVING LLCC ORGANIZATION, INCREASING OUTFLOW, AND THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

Biggest surf of the season off Cable beach around Midday today. Only set to get bigger over the next few days but if this stronger NWester winds kick in it will probably get a bit messy.

Friday looks interesting according to the GFS. Big NW flow meeting with a strong SE flow. Want to capture a waterspout this season. I think Friday on some of those squall lines will be the best bets. Bring it on.

Latest Forecast
"Satellite imagery over the last 6 hours shows convection continuing to consolidate and increase in size, the low level centre remains located on the eastern edge of the cloud mass. Although the tropical system to the west continues to develop it is at a rate slower than previously forecast. The system is currently expected to reach tropical cyclone strength overnight Wednesday with further development expected. Location accuracy is slow to improve and is still considered only fair. The system has moved fairly quickly to the west over the past 24 hours, however, it is slowing and is expected to become slow moving.

However there is a weak secondary low which has formed within the Monsoon trough to the east of the existing low. This secondary low is not currently expected to develop into a tropical cyclone but may interfere with the development and track of the existing tropical system to the west which may result in it remaining slow moving in the long term rather than the taking a more southerly track."

Yeah I saw that second LOW on the charts and again on the sat image. Clear as day. This trough is spinning stuff up flat out. It even looks likely (in my eyes lol) that something might form in closer to the West Kimberley coast over the next 24-36 hrs. Smack bang in between the existing LOW and the Darwin LOW. Probably being a bit wishful in that regards but EC and GFS have had a LOW forming inshore albeit briefly.

Next EC out in 1 hour will paint a picture as to whether there is a chance of West Kimberley LOW which ultimately changes Broomes outcome for a severe weather weekend or not. Should be OK either way but would prefer a flash cyclone warning. lol

2nd LOW straight above the NW cape (centre left)

Popeyes wishful 3rd LOW to the NW of Broome LOL (centre right)



Latest charts showing 997 LOW

Good Ole North West Cape gets a bit of a scruff up from this system if the latest EC is to go by. Still potential there yet.

Updated track map.

Latest EC map for the records.

Infrared image @ 1520

Summary Details of Developing Low off NW Australia coast:
1700 WST Wed 25 Jan 2012

Severity Category Below TC Intensity
Max Winds 56 gusting to 83 km/h
Central Pressure 994 hPa
Recent Movement W 13 km/h
Location 15.8S 108.2E
Confidence Accurate within 83 km

Mmmm watching this with a bit of interest.

Still a chance will brush the coast up a bit.

VERY happy with our forecast for the week!! As it is have been having a storm/rain the last few days......awesome.

Here are our team's thoughts for anyone that's interested