So if the BOMS track map is correct we should see that SE almost ESE movement over the next 24hrs. Depending on what the speed of movement of Iggy during that period will determine whether their maps will be revised East, West or remain the same.

Starting to run out of things to talk about now lol. Better let the bugger decide what happens next. If this seasons cyclones are to go by there could be a few whacky changes. But the longer it goes on I guess the more predictable Iggy may get this time round. ?? Maybe!!

Let hope that Perth get a lots of heavy rain out of this Tropical Cyclone Iggy if it's go down the coast hear them.

The heat over there been very bad the last few days they need a bit of that rain I think they might be in a bit of a chance if it's happen or not but I am going for my %50 to %50 chance.


I know they will be all very happy if it's go that way hear them.

Tell me about it Popeye!! We've seen much more South than East over the past two days and I'm starting to lose a bit of faith in the BOMs consistent SE track forecast!! As you say, the recent sat pics seem to have her tracking away from the coast, not towards it. You know what we need...an EYE damn it!

Don't forget, the eye got relocated more to the west too.

Just watching that high start to push in now from the West and the trough build along the west coast. Iggy has 24 hours max to decide to travel SE, otherwise it's S, SSW, S, SE, ESE, look out Geraldton to Perth!

I still think by the Sat loops at present its heading SW -SSW already my thoughts anyway. ,Meaning NO!!! W.A. CROSSING for now.

No doubt Wiz, just wish we could see it on the sat pic. All that cloud shearing to the Western half is deceiving the movement of the LLCC.

Still a long way off. GFS has it making landfall south of Jurien Bay on Thursday night. The others are not having a landfall at all. EC is pushing it very close to Exmouth, then moving SSW to be well to the west of Kalbarri on Friday night. NOGAPS has it moving SSW away from the coast, and then slowly making it towards the mid-west coast late in their forecast. Either way, interesting times ahead.

You made me have another look. Factoring in the Westerly shear, I'd say probably near stationary which might be a good sign that she's about to change direction to the SE/ESE. That would fit with the JTWC and BOM track forecasts.

Correct as Tlow stated, the LLCC (Low level Circulating Centre) is the core of the cyclone the higher level cloud tops/convection are being affected by an Eastly 20+ knots Vertical wind shear. Which give the impression that its moving West. When in fact the LLCC is moving SE and is due in the next 12hrs to move into an area of less wind shear which will then allow intensification. And give better sat image of were the LLCC is located.

K-town shops are still hectic. All i wanted was to post a letter off and grab my caffeine fix for the morning. I pretty much had to just pick a line, put my angry face on and walk and hope people got out of my way rather than trying to squeze past everybody hahaha!

The rain has eased off a bit, just very, very light drizzle at the moment. Some good puddles on the roads, and we've hardly got anywhere near being proper wet!!! A dose of 100mm+ from a system in 24hrs would cause some real chaos as the drainage is terrible, and the new road is STILL not finished from the town towards Dampier, and due to the works, it'll hold water over the road longer..


Still got pressure on its way down, Barrow should get to 990 today, Karratha 994. No wonder its getting a little breezy at times.
Hoping for a bit more rain (my lawn is loving it!). Cloud has cleared a bit and vis has improved, can still see a few showers around.

Got the feeling that Iggy will go a little more easterly before the turn, bringing the system closer to the NW cape. But starting to feel less optimistic about a crossing- probably a good thing if it does indeed make Cat4.

latest track map, still big changes happening, well off the coast now...

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

no rain atm hope theres more on the way?

Gfs has been pretty well spot on for this system. Looks like it will hug the coast past ex mouth and then slowly dissipate. Don't like Gfs call of a crossing near Perth however, last year it kept progging that too with all sorts of rain forecast for Perth....none of which eventuated

Im confused. Didn't JTWC say that as the system headed south it would decrease in strength? Their latest map has it maintaining its strength. What happened to the cooler SST's down the west coast they suddenly get warm over the last few days. lol.

Ahh well it's all still interesting. I know it sounds a bit deranged but I love a good coastal crossing. When they stick out to sea its a bit HO HUM. Happy for Exmouth to be slowly getting into a better scenario though. Lots of time still to go with this sucker so lets see what unfolds.

Swell is the biggest I have seen it in Years in Broome ATM. It looks smaller on the webcam than what it actually is and there the odd thumpers rolling through. Not easily surfable due to the insane side rip.

CABLE BEACH WEBCAM HIGH TIDE COMING UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR = BEST WAVES

Indeed, this is still a long way off, but scary to look at nonetheless!

Yeah IF GFS came off it would be a pretty insane way to top off and action packed week for WA. Iggy as a coastal hugger right down the west coast and crossing inland and through the Central areas down to Esperance. YOWW that would be a sweet weather event to unfold. With all that heating going on down there combined with a tropical infeed there will be some psycho storms like Bianca last year. Still a scenario that is yet to be proven but the next few days update will confirm whether this will happen. Hope it does.

Saying all that though EC which has been doing alright with this system aswell to date has it bobbing down and out offshore to the West.

Oh dear. A cat 2 system hitting a city of 1.6 million would be devastating. But still very unlikely to happen. Look at all that rain it would bring too.

At a guess Popeye , I would say all the Stinking Hot weather down south , with near all day offshores would be helping SST's .
Not to mention that the Monsoon has been running in the area for close to 7 days now . The hootest Anomalies were out where this has Formed , but the leading edge winds NNW - NNE would be helping speed up the Leeuwin , not to mention the NNW swell running at opposite direction down the Coast .

Note that one of the most recent Models shows a STRONG Perth Direct Hit Thursday or Friday ....

As you said interesting week . I for the life of me can't remember such an active week weather wise when The models have flipped around so much . I spose their is so many " Ingredient's in the Weather Bowl " at the moment . I hope what gets served up doesn't turn out to be Sour or Overcooked ......