Just bit of a Note Tropical Cyclone Iggy may go for WA/NT they might need to sitll just only keeping a watch on it over the coming up weeks.

Hi Mathew,

TC Iggy will not make it or affect the NT. This will be a WA system in its entirety

@ 0300

"Although some upper wind shear still evident across TC Iggy, the system is intensifying and likely to be upgraded to Cat 2 later this morning. Satellite imagery now providing a moderate to good fix on the location of the system. Over the past 6 hours the system has moved on a south southeast track, and the consensus of the computer models indicate TC Iggy should continue on southeasterly track for the next 42 hours."

stormchaser_jr - i was told when i first moved here that "there is a dome over Karratha, from the hills to Pluto". I laughed then-completely true-now i'm the one telling the newbies. We can have the biggest, heaviest, blackest looking clouds almost right on us then suddenly it breaks up and swings inland and we get absolutely zilch.

Summary Details at:
0500 WST Fri 27 Jan 2012

Cyclone Name Iggy
Severity Category 1
Max Winds 83 gusting to 120 km/h
Central Pressure 981 hPa
Recent Movement SSE 7 km/h
Location 17.1S 109.4E
Confidence Accurate within 83 km
Radius to Gales 204 km

CAT 2 now. The shaded area of uncertainty on the latest track map shows an interesting story. They are confident of more of an Easterly track.


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 8:37 am WST on Friday 27 January 2012

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port Hedland to Coral Bay.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Iggy, Category 2 was estimated to be
610 kilometres northwest of Exmouth and
740 kilometres west northwest of Karratha and
moving east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour towards the west Pilbara coast.

Over the next 72 hours TC Iggy will steadily intensify while moving
southeastwards towards the western Pilbara coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal communities on Friday, however gales may
develop on the coast between Whim Creek and Coral Bay on Saturday afternoon or
overnight into Sunday. Rainfall is likely to increase on Friday in coastal
parts of the Pilbara, west Kimberley and possibly on the west coast north of
Cape Cuvier.

Strong winds, heavy rainfall and abnormally large swells will be experienced
near Christmas Island, the Kimberley and Pilbara coasts due to the influence of
a strong monsoonal flow.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Port Hedland and Coral Bay, including communities near
Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth, should listen for the next issue.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Iggy at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.5 degrees South 110.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 979 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Friday 27 January.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

Wow big turnaround in that prediction.. i'm gonna take a punt and say Karratha crossing as a Cat 5 (shouldn't Have problems bombing to that strength, SST's are a massive 3-4C above avg underneath the system, atmospheric conditions perfect.. should get to Cat 4 overnight tonight).. then they can send it down NSW way for some extra flooding

Hooley Dooley! Looks like this one just might be ours ...

Remarks from the latest JTWC. Mentioning of a slowing of the SE trajectory and then remaining stationary. Depending on what the water temps are like underneath at the time could either mean sustaining itself or mixing the waters beneath and robbing itself of heat to maintain intensity.

Another twist. A big CAT 4 just sitting there for 24hrs deciding what next will be an intimidating experince for those down Exmouth to Karratha and beyond. Its almost as if the competing ridge and trough may be an even battle hence the stationary forecast. What happens after that will have Iggy steaming off in ??? direction.

REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 109.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SLOWLY IMPROVING CONSOLIDATION DUE TO MODERATE (20-25
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). DESPITE THE VWS, A
261715Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
261405Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 45-50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND THE ASCAT IMAGE
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF. TC 09S IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING CLOSER TO LEARMONTH, WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM, HOWEVER, GFS AND
ECMWF TRACK TC 09S WEST OF LEARMONTH WHILE UKMO AND JGSM TRACK THE
SYSTEM JUST EAST OF LEARMONTH. NOGAPS AND WBAR ARE THE SOLE OUTLIERS
AND SHOW A SHARP WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER STR RESULTING FROM
THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS TROUGH, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 80E, WILL WEAKEN THE STR SO THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A MORE PROLONGED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THEN A
SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN IN TRACK SPEEDS OR PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE VWS BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

From the look of the track map it looks like it is making a bee line just south of Karatha. Not sure about the Cat going to 5 but conservative estimate i would reckon as strong Cat 4.

WZ Synoptic charts have it hugging the coast until wednesday.

Some of the earlier scenarios predicted, (like from last Sunday), seem that they were closer to the money!

In regards to water temps in that area, I think Nitso mentioned in the ozcyconechasers report the warm waters off the NWest cape are warm to a shallow level as the continental shelf runs right along the west coast there and would mix with cooler waters just below the surface.

Swing it 2-300kms around the top of the Pilbara coast offshore from Karratha and Onslow and I would imagine it being a relatively shallow sea with heat penetrating the shallows and creating a much deeper layer of water temps. I'm not 100% on this but know the areas reasonably well.

So if Iggy can plonk himself in the waters around to the Nth of Onslow/Karratha the chances of him having a rapid weakening due to cooler waters will be less likely although still weakening him. That may be the reason why he may not sneak up as high as CAT 5 status. BUT.... who is to say that he doesn't go through a rapid intensification just prior to landfall which can even occur in the hours leading up to crossing just as Heidi did on a smaller scale a few weeks ago at Hedland.

Interesting times ahead.

ALot of the buildings in that region would surely be built to withstand the winds of big TC's.
Didnt a Cat 4 or 5 visit that area several years ago? If memory is correct- I think it was followed closely behind by another tc . I think it was about 2007- 8

GFS and the EC, have the system moving to the SE, then slowing down and then moving more to the south just north of Exmouth. I think that is the more likely scenario at this stage. Will it hit the coast? It will be close, best chances are between the Exmouth to Carnavon region. There is a chance it could hug the coast as it comes down, with even a crossing towards Geraldton a possibility.

Iggy is Popping. Wouldn't wish a Cat 5 on anyone, bugger that, hope whoever this heads to only gets a low level Cat 4 at most. Definitely beefing up a bit and that more easterly track makes things interesting for the days ahead. Hope we all get another dose of good rain, enjoying the weather at the moment as it doesn't happen too often.

Heard some people say they were sick of the rain already, I made the appropriate calls and the Straight Jackets are on the way.

Agree Occo. Places like Exmouth with their new marina developments newly built would be biting their fingernails. Hasn't been put to the test and I remeber a lot of locals were a bit dubious as to what would happen to that marina in a big TC.

Alot of houses are ageing, new ones may not be built to the exact levels ( you would hope they would) New trees, debri, gardens, caravan parks, more boats in yards, a bigger influx of newer residents etc all add to the fact that although these towns are built to standard there is a lot of variables these days adding to the potential destruction in the NWEST these days. Hope it hits (if it does) somewhere isolated (95% of the coastline is isolated) Would be just bad luck for a town to get a direct hit again this year but its not out of the question.

Yes Occo, all the buildings here are Cat 4 standard i have been continuously told but the issue is that if such a powerful system hits us at high tide during one of our larger tides much of the town will be flooded. The SES ran a situation whereby if a Cat 4/5 hit Karratha at high tide on our largest tide, then we would suffer 80% casualties as a 6m tide surge could occur and a good 1/3 of our town is already below sea level...
That being said, looking at our tides, if it did make landfall at Ktown, lets hope it would be Tuesday or later

Yeah I'm not really one for the idea of a cat 5 on my doorstep!!

Cat 4 I don't mind as much at least the buildings are supposedly rated for Cat 4 (dunno bout some of these transportable houses though tied to slabs with bolts!!!!!) I'm living in the brand new area of town so don't really want one of those things hitting my place lol would make a rather large bang.

Personally if something is going to hit want it to be a Cat 3 or under.....nice and windy, not too much damage and plenty of rain, though best cyclone we have had was Monty

Popeye, interesting you say bout all the new stuff. It's so true theres people who have lived here 4-5 years and haven't experienced a cyclone only either close calls or Cat 1/2's which are nothing major. However we did have that Tornado last year which made people take that cyclone a bit more seriously.

Since our last decent cyclone in 06?? Claire and Glenda there has been a massive amount of development in the town and probably 5-6,000 extra people move here.

Personally I think the whole coast should be on Blue alert (but costs the companies money so doesn't happen until the last minute these days....people can say that's not the case but I can assure you Rio Tinto has a very BIG pull with FESA and Police after their little screw up last time we went to Red Alert on Australia Day)


Complacency will be the thing that will kill people here.

Interesting times ahead as long as it's done and dusted before Wednesday, got a flight to Perth to catch

There's alot of modular homes in Karratha with no ground anchoring at all....

How come the models always have to tease the SW with cyclones. The new GFS: