Ants are stupid like that, hey wait a minute... Anyway imo Ant your a decent chance for some good rain, from an ACCESSG point of view anyway.

Another crazy run of GFS 00z... The area of 200mm+ falls from NW QLD right through NSW is easily TWICE the size of the state of VIC!! Never seen a run like this before for the east coast. Widespread inland sea if it comes off from inland QLD right across the E half of NSW, which looks fairly likely now

Latest forecast calls for areas of "rain" for Sydney on Monday, and just scattered "showers" for Canberra. Strange. I thought this was going to be a more inland event, particularly going by this...



Homer

My first post here!

Been watchin this event with interest cause i hav cricket on saturday lol
Any chances of the sun peeking out tomm in the Sydney basin?I noticed the rainfall amounts is almost down to nil.

How come there is no rain recorded for Cobar today ? does any body know is the BOM broken ?

Geez Homer - that is a scary image with those sorts of numbers.

Yes a lot of rain around, but seems to be still hard to predict exactly where the biggest falls will be much more than a couple of days ahead.
Models seem to be finally consolidating at least for the weekend rain for the CT's. We should get pretty solid continuous wind and rain on Sunday night overnight as that cold front sucks in the moisture from the north. Could easily be 30-40mm overnight for much of the CT's.

230mm so far this month PD - so hope you get our share too. Fully saturated round these parts. More walking today rather than riding - missing the mountain bike.

we have had close to 600mm since the start on November 2011 - no bushfires but it would be nice to spend a few balmy evening outside on the deck,

Gee, 230mms is a nice effort!!! just 52mms here for the month, with 17mms falling in the last week or so. Unfortunately we are too far northeast to enjoy some nice sunshine and warm temperatures, but too far south to experience any worthwhile rainfall. Its just gloomy weather with the occasional light shower here and there... I believe our turn for a drenching is well over due, with the last significant rain event occuring a few years ago now. Really hoping for an East Coast Low or two this Autumn, I like ECL's almost as much as a good thunderstorm, as long as i'm in the right spot for them... That rainfall map looks nice, but I think the majority of that was forecasted around the 144hour mark.

Gloomy DRY weather here, too. They reckon it'll get to 29c today, not with that thick layer of cloud it won't. Seems to have come in with the easterly overnight, and we did get a splatter of misty drizzle overnight, briefly.

What!, 230mm, amazing, only 65mm here so far, still need another 25mm just to reach the average.



Agreed about missing those balmy evenings. This summer is like aircon on overdrive, more like living in a fridge, door will never open.



What I would not give for 29 right now, I am struggling to get over 18 even inside the house now. Its just gloomy and cold here. It has not even reached 20 outside for a week now.

Just mild and very steamy here. But looking like nothing on the way yet. Don't want to finish Jan with zero rainfall.
Duane.

Duanne, this rain between 11pm Sunday night and 5am Monday, only +48h model run.
Very very likely Wagga will get at least an inch overnight Sunday night. Nearly impossible not to get some good rain.

Geez I hope you're right PD! The back lawn is look pretty ordinary even though I am putting water on it. Just a good thing I got the irrigation to the fruit trees in time!

Ah, good to see the date for this topic was extended. I was wondering why no one had started a thread on the coming deluge for Northern NSW but Also a large amount of rain for the rest of the State. Even my Area "Finley" 22Km north of the Vic / NSW Border about in the center of the state Horizontally. Some models like CMC and GFS are suggesting up to 75mm over a 5 day period and we live in one of those4 areas that as rain approaches it decays and as it leaves it re-develops. like there's a shadow over us that stops rain. So in reality we will only get about half of what is forecast usually, and even that is a lot of rain for us. In out town we reply on irrigation for farming. Very little rain falls here.

So yeah it looks like Northern NSW over the Next 180 Hours is going to get some very serious Rain, including Sydney. I hope you all Keep Safe and I hope the rain you get doesn't do too much harm. In fact I am curios as to why I didn't see any warning on this afternoon's ABC News 24 about the coming Rain for Norther NSW.

Hope you get enough rain Bigwilly, you still look like in a good place for tomorrow night.

Looking at the latest models the heaviest rain for Northern and NE NSW will not be until Wednesday now which current models show as a deluge. Yet BOM are still not willing to take the risk and predict rain.

I must admit it has been hard to predict these tropical systems more than a couple of days out, originally 4 days ago I thought tonight would be the beginning of a deluge here. However models changed course and now just have moderate rain but not deluge for Sunday night instead. Bom now more than less agree with that having rain developing in the evening and then easing Monday morning.

Maybe if models still hold on Monday they will start to predict heavy rain for Wednesday then. Rain should be very heavy here also, but have to wait until Monday too to know for sure I guess.

well, we got the high temps, and tonight is gradually cooling, but it it pretty slow. There were some large clouds building up in the north, but they fizzled out. Sky is clear tonight, I am hoping that tomorrow is a bit cooler, but the forecast looks to more of the same as today.

I was hoping for some rain - there was a hint of it this morning, but the cloud burned off and the heat amped up.

That map looks a bit more hopeful for the ACT region. I have a bag of grass waiting, the minute rain is due, it'll get sown on the dead/bare patches. I was digging around in the lawn and garden today, they both get irrigated, and it wasn't good, dry and dusty.

the cloud burnt off very fast around midday, and it got hot and humid. But very clear sky. .

Wow Ant, warm and sunny, I wonder what that yellow thing in the sky even looks like.
Cannot believe models have pushed the heavier rain even further west for tonight, hard to say what will happen. That blob seems to be tracking south to us atm, but who knows.
Models still keeping heavy rain for Wednesday around here, but not that much for the ACT. Would be bad luck if tonight missed to the west and Wednesday missed to the NE.