c) the issue of warnings of gales, storms and other weather conditions likely to endanger life or property, including weather conditions likely to give rise to floods or bush fires; (my bold and italics)

The main reason people don't know is because they don't want to know. As you said the regular warnings will cause people to get the s@#*% when the said disaster does not occur and people will end up ignoring them anyway and then we are back to sqaure one. I honestly believe that with the system in place there is adequate warning for anyone that could be bothered to take responsibility for themselves.Many will bring up the towoomba and grantham flash floods but that was most likely a once in a several genneration event and BoM have as little idea about these things as the rest of us. How many other situations can you think of where there was not adequate warning?

The system also may be used by state and local authorities to deliver important emergency information, such as AMBER alerts and weather information targeted to specific areas.

Great topic IW and Jeff W. Regarding BoM and the media, I'm going to reach further afield again and look to the USA. Their Emergency Management System is a federal initiative allowing for local, state, or national authorities to interrupt and over-ride radio and television broadcasts to communicate matters of emergency. But more importantly in relation to weather:

from SEQ water
Water Release Update (Friday 7 January, 9.00am)
Wivenhoe Dam

Gate operations will commence when flood levels in the lower Lockyer Creek subside.

Local Councils are being advised that local flows, and the expected Wivenhoe release, may impact upon Twin Bridges, Savages Crossing, Burtons Bridge, Kholo Bridge and Colleges Crossing for several days.

At this stage, no adverse impacts are expected for Fernvale Bridge, or Mt Crosby Weir Bridge.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast and eastern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
districts.

Issued at 4:50 pm on Thursday 6 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 4pm EST, an upper level low was developing over the
southeastern interior of Queensland and is forecast to move in a north northeast
direction overnight. A slow moving surface trough extended from northwestern
parts of the state down into the southeast.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for heavy rainfall leading to localised flash flooding and potentially worsening
the existing river flood situation
For people in the Southeast Coast and Wide Bay and Burnett forecast districts.

Issued at 8:25 am on Friday 7 January 2011

Synoptic Situation: At 7am EST, an upper level low was located over the
Capricornia district while a low level trough was located off the Capricorn
coast. These systems will combine to produce further rain areas and
thunderstorms over the Southeast Coast and Wide Bay and Burnett forecast
districts.

Dave Wx 1.20am 8/1/11

In my (admittedly short) time looking at the PME output, I have never seen a 300-400mm bullseye like this on the 1-4 day chart outside of the tropics. While there is still a chance that things may be shifted or changed a little by the models tomorrow (and I still am a little wary given what happened on the Dec 26-28 event) it is again time to get prepared as this event is going to be right up there in the history books I reckon.

This is also the time where a 'Flood Watch' style warning (like NSW has from the Tweed down to the Bellinger at this very moment) would be great to get out in the media - a heads up for everyone. I hope that this event hasn't snuck under the radar for the government, or the media for that matter. At least in the media's case they will all be coming back to Brisbane (some would have already now that things are calming down a bit) so hopefully they will start going hard on this event during Saturday in preparation. As for the government, they would be understandably buried in the flood situation out west and north...but hopefully someone has told Bligh and co what is about to happen in the southeast!

Puddles7 8.42am 8/1/11
Why is there no such warning about this whole situation on the Bom site? When I tell all my friends about the possiblity of serious flooding and the amount of rain we may be about to recieve over the next few days they almost laugh at me and really don't think anything is going to happen!! A serious "potential for Flood warning" message needs to be alerted to the general public, not as soon as it starts to rain, but BEFORE it!! just to make them aware of the seriousness this next lot of rain may cause!! It might get the message across at least and help people get prepared if they are in a flood prone area.

I know there is a severe weather update, but the Bom site doesn't really have a "Flood Alert" on it's own like the NSW bom site does, nor does it mention the strong winds we are getting and the danger that may bring (as you've all expressed about the sodden ground and the trees being uprooted) It just doesn't make sense to me!! As everyone here has witnessed, a small amount of rain and the creeks and rivers are raging again!!!!


Yesterday, I had no idea we were about to get those strong winds, nothing was mentioned anywhere, and it wasn't until they hit us, that I looked again later and Bom had made a quick update!!!

Whynot 12.10pm 8/1/11
A few points about authorities issuing warnings …

#1 Mileti and Sorensen (1990) characterize the process as;
Quote:
• Hearing the warning
• Understanding the contents of the warning message
• Believing the warning is credible and accurate
• Personalizing the warning to oneself
• Confirming that the warning is true and others are taking heed
• Responding by taking a protective action

The authorities (BoM, Disaster Management, various Councils, etc.) have to strike a balance between issuing warnings and appearing to cry wolf. However, the general public also has a low tolerance to warnings for events that do not eventuate. Recall the adverse media the Brisbane City Council received when it put out flood warnings last month, which did not eventuate, about flooding associated with releases from Wivenhoe. The trick is to issue warnings when they will have maximum impact.

To quote from Chan (1979)
Quote:
Warning forecasts attempt to reduce the uncertainty of what is essentially defined as a dichotomous pair of alternatives-the negative event will occur soon or it will not. Given the costs involved, warning forecasts seek to drive the probability of one side of the dichotomy as close to unity as possible. This usually means the negative alternative, since no forecast (special stimulus) is needed for the non-occurrence alternative. The dichotomy burdens the warning forecasts with refuting all alternative explanations of the information which leads to issuing warning. This is particularly true because, given the "bad news" nature of warning, strong motivations are at work to find alternative explanations and thus deny the probable occurrence of the unwanted event. Accordingly, for warning forecasts to be valid they must be durable in a demanding number of ways.

First, independent sets of information must converge on the same conclusion. Second, these sets must seem inherently more trustworthy indicators of what is to come than all other sets of available information. Third, the forecasts must have a well-established record for not providing false information.


#2, while the computer models are looking rather interesting, this is not the first time they have been so this summer. I can recall just before Christmas GFS was forecasting 700mm of rain for Brisbane. Did a 700mm rainfall event occur? No. However, just imaging if the authorities had reacted on the premise of a 700mm event (add in the chaos of Christmas as well) – and it was a bust. Now, image the community reaction if the authorities issued a warning for this (Jan 9-11) potential event. Quite a few will ignore it to their detriment.

#3, the general public and the media like consistent information. They are highly intolerant and high suspicious of a “fact” that keeps changing (e.g. 100mm of rain tomorrow). Yet, those who dabble in the dark arts of forecasting know that a forecast is a forward estimate made at a single point of time-space. Time-space, however, is always in flux. This compounds the difficulty when authorities have as to when and where to issue warnings. For example, BCC issue an alert based on 500mm of rain. Then they change it 12hrs later based on a revised forecast of 400mm of rain. The general public reacts somewhat sarcastically that the BCC cannot get its story straight. Yet, most weather watchers in this forum would realise that a change in forecast is perfectly reasonable.

#4, any warnings issued will be picked up by the media and sensationalised. While I appreciate the media has a role to play, their additional hype is a disservice. It is picked up by some in the community, causes an overreaction, which, conveniently, is then used as fodder to drive additional media stories (e.g. BCC gets forecast wrong). Hence, even more care is taken to only issue warnings when they become absolutely necessary.

Using the current situation as an example, just say we take the current GFS forecast of 500mm over SEQ, plug it into the hydrology model, and conclude that everyone below Q100 needs evacuating. Imagine the disruption that it would cause to the community and the associated media feast. Now, imagine the media feast if the Q100 does not eventuate and the societal deprecation of future warnings.

My opinion is that the BoM, BCC, Disaster Management, et al, have reasonably executed their responsibilities this summer. While there is always room for improvement, the next questions are how much is the community willing to spend and how ready are they to participate?

Chan, 1979, The Intelligence of Stupidity: Understanding Failures in Strategic Warning
Sorensen, 2000, Hazard Warning Systems: Review Of 20 Years Of Progress

Water Release Update (Monday 10 January, 7.00am)

Wivenhoe Dam
Upstream levels are rising quickly as a result of significant heavy rainfall. The objective for dam operations will be to minimise the impact of urban flooding in areas downstream of the dam.

Gate releases of around 150,000 megalitres a day are underway and are likely to be increased to about 223,00 megalitres per day by late Monday 10 January.

Local Councils have been advised that as a result of Lockyer Creek flows, local runoff and Wivenhoe releases, Twin Bridges, Savages Crossing, Burtons Bridge, Kholo Bridge Colleges Crossing, Fernvale Bridge, and Mt Crosby Weir Bridge may be inundated for several days.

There is currently NO ACCESS to Wivenhoe Dam, including the Spillway Common (Spillway viewing area). The entire site is closed.

Somerset Dam
As a result of rainfall and inflows, water is being released into Wivenhoe through five sluice gates at about 95,000 megalitres per day and is likely to continue until Thursday 13 January. Areas around Kilcoy are likely to be impacted as a result of the rising dam levels.

The Wivenhoe Dam rules are listed below.
To achieve them we may have to open and close gates during the initial stages of the flood event. e.g. If the flow in the Lockyer is increasing, we may need to close down the discharge from Wivenhoe to keep a bridge open but once the Lockyer flow inundates the bridge, the release from Wivenhoe can be increased to satisfy the next limit.

Dam Level less than 67.25m = 0m3/sec (ie no releases)
Dam level 67.25m - 67.5m = up to 110 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Colleges Crossing)
Dam level 67.5 - 67.75 = up to 210 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Butrons/Noogoorah)
Dam level 67.75 - 68.0 = up to 500 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Kholo)
Dam level 68.0 - 68.25 = up to 900 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Mt Crosby)
Dam level 68.25 - 68.5 = up to 1500 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Mt Crosby)
Dam level 68.5 - 74 = up to 3500 m3/sec (dependent on flows at Lowood/Moggil)
Dam level 74m or higher = Max releases until level drops, as dam safety may be compromised. Gates (74m) are NOT to be overtopped.


The most common operating rule is to set gate opening for a nominated headwater level.
There is sometimes a minimum time between successive gate openings but, if the reservoir rise is too rapid and the gates fails to keep up, there is usually provision to progressively halve the gate movement intervals to allow the gate operations to keep pace with reservoir rises.

The overriding rules are generally that the safety of the dam is paramount and that the rate of outflow does not exceed the rate of inflow during the rising stage of an incoming flood.

12.16pm 10/1/11 AC
Concerning for the Gatton-Grantham area right now with that very large storm/rain area moving towards it with no doubt, torrential rainfall! Sandy Creek (in Grantham) has caught quite a few people by surprise and I hope they're prepared for it, but sadly I think most won't know until the water starts lapping up at their homes due to our insufficient warning system.

Event is definitely not over - the dry slot is there, but the moist air in front of it is the danger zone which is what's passing through/moving towards Southeast Queensland right now! Not to mention the instability - and radar is certainly showing a clear picture of the instability right now.


1.10pm Buster 10/1/11
Anthony, do you think the BOM's on the case with that cell. If not you probably know who should be told about it. Those rain rates between Esk, Crows Nest and Toowoomba are truly frightening. I fear that there could be a dangerous flash flood very soon, particularly in Grantham. Am I overreacting?

2.34pm 10/1/11 AC
This is my concern too - that there's going to be a near wall of water flowing down into the communities through there...

The flooding in Toowoomba would be significant too with 60mm in the last hour.

The satellite images seem to be hooking the cloud more westerly now which if that's the case, would begin to drag the rain and storms offshore back onto the coast.

AC


2.52pm 10/1/11 AC
Keep us posted on the Toowoomba stuff guys - it's not going to be pretty with so much rain in such a short period of time (with such saturated catchments).

The heaviest rain fell to the NE of Toowoomba too, so a bit concerned about the effects there right now also.

Can't believe the Bureau didn't issue additional warnings for the area despite seeing such a huge massive rainy storm blob heading for the area...

AC

4.27pm 10/1/11 Dave WX
I wonder if anybody at the Bureau is awake at the moment?

This is the latest warning for Lockyer Ck, issued a couple of minutes ago:

(note, an hour after Helidon flood gauge recorded ridiculous flooding, and countless scary flooding and landslide reports from the Toowoomba area)
Quote:
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LOCKYER, BREMER, WARRILL AND Brisbane RIVER BELOW WIVENHOE INCLUDING BrisbaneCITY
Issued at 4:16 PM on Monday the 10th of January 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Stream level rises causing moderate to major flooding are being recorded in
Lockyer Creek, Warrill Creek and and along the Bremer River. Major flood levels
are likely at Ipswich during Tuesday.

LOCKYER CREEK:
Further rainfall during Monday has led to renewed rises in the Lockyer Creek
catchment. Rainfall is forecast to continue this evening and a return to
moderate to major flood levels is expected overnight and during Tuesday. Major
flood levels are expected to continue at Lyons Bridge with rises above 15 metres
likely during Tuesday.

TOP PRIORITY
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR LOCKYER CREEK
Issued at 5:00 PM on Monday the 10th of January 2011
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.



Very heavy rainfalls have been recorded in the Toowoomba area and caused extreme
flash flooding. This rainfall is also causing extreme rises in the upper Lockyer
Creek at Helidon with very fast and dangerous rises possible downstream at
Gatton in the next few hours. Rises will extend downstream of Gatton during
tonight.

Heavy rain areas and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
Southeast Coast district, far southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett
District and eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt district. Heavy
falls may lead to localised flash flooding and/or worsen existing river
flooding.

Further rises and flash flooding are likely in the creeks and streams around
Brisbane and Ipswich associated with the heaviest rainfall.

Flood warnings are current for the Mary River, Sunshine Coast streams and the
Upper Brisbane and Lower Brisbane rivers. A severe weather warning is also
current for this region.

"Insofar as your assertion that the BoM is not responsible for the issuing of bushfire warnings, this is incorrect. The Act specifically charges the BoM with that responsibility (see excerpt first post of this thread)."

Hi Inclement Weather.

I think there is a difference between the Bureau's responsibility to issue Fire WEATHER warnings and BUSHFIRE warnings. The BoM issue warnings for WEATHER that increases the fire danger level. The relevant state fire or emergency services authorities issue the BUSHFIRE warnings.

As for things like flooding and heavy rainfall . . . [it] might also be worth considering just how many people are involved in Hydrological Forecasting sections, how much countryside they are looking at and how much data they have to evaluate? I wouldn't mind guessing that the poor sods are overwhelmed with the task in front of them. Good luck to them all anyway.