What do you define as "much at all?"

Just wondering which model doesn't show it affecting Adelaide? All the ones on WZ certainly suggest we will be affected in some form on Sat-Sun.
I would say everyone acknowledges the best of the system is to the north and east - that's pretty obvious, but at this stage Adelaide should see something, based on the models.


4.38pm

SD you certaily like to downplay everything lately, I can see general agreement in all the models really, and the ones that matter most are the best on the storm possibilities...anyway we shall see soon enough. I will eat humble pie if wrong, but it looks very good to me anyway.

No not 4.38...but 4.07pm!(Don't worry about Tim, he has a weird sense of humour sometimes!)
Well. anytime after early to mid arvo RS...Keep you eyes peeled to the ENE sky!
Cheers

Forecast mean sea-level pressure change is around 1014 to 995 by the 29th, that's beginning to get low .

Tim, I'd say more around 5.19pm. Don't you look at models or read forecasts? Shame on you!

ooops..... my bad....

I must disagree. For the deprived (seriously) south it will be 4:59& 45 seconds you stoopid cat stoorfers. Geeze. And that's if it happens at all down Sth. Strewth and god almighty. I just dunno anymore. Lol. Let me tell if beer and s thern red were precipitation we would be be drowning in floods. Screw the may they bake in the bloody oven the low landers ha ha ha ha ha

God what's with all the positivity all of a sudden... making me feel sick

Nah all good, Teck "much at all" From BOM.. Cumulative rainfall totals from Thursday evening until midnight Monday are expected to be mostly less than 5 mm, increasing to 5 to 15 mm east of the ranges, with local falls of 20 to 40 mm possible with thunderstorms near the New South Wales or Queensland border.

I was talking about the fact I(Me) needs to see more agreeance(more of the same) across ACCESS R&G, GFS & EC..

Having said all that, the 12z run on all mentioned Models today did fill me with more confidence & as the rest of us do I eagerley await the 00z

RS, you fell right into that one mate, choice of words my friend choice.. of.. words

Models are in superb agreeance. I can't remember models being so consistent for an easterly dip/infeed for many a year! Steer is STIFF/STAUNCH and not waffly and directionally changing with height. A lovely LLJ of sorts rapidly advects tropical 18-20C dp air into the Central and Adelaide area overnight friday into saturday. You will wake up sat morn, walk outside and SMELL IT!!!! prime convective atmosphere, especially given an upper low will assist by cooling the mids, causing our usually struggling thermodynamic thunderstorms to get some much needed "dynamic lifter" for want of a phrase.

Very very much like xmas day 1999, with stiff steer like we have, things will be forced well up against the sea early, won't surprise me to see convection over the western suburbs at all on saturday before it goes on the hills, watch for that pattern.

Will do better write-up as things get closer.

TS

What do you think about late tomorrow Lennie? Is it worth a drive to Renmark/Mildura or up to Yunta and beyond?
How likely is the stuff going to keep going after 9pm? Don't want to drive 4+hrs for an hour of storm and then need to drive back home....

As for saturday, I no longer need to play tennis WOOHOO.... so I will be heading out early. Probably to Eudunda/Truro area and go from there.... that area will go off if its like '99....

And I think as storm chasers, we can party like it's 1999 too!

How early do you call "early" Teckert!? If all still looks promising 2morrow nightish i'll be keen to head out truro way if you dont mind a noob taggin along

I'll send you PM...

This was the River Light near Kapunda on 25th Dec 1999. Also the day of my closest encounter with lightning...

I lol'd

Haven't looked much but I'd definitely be chasing tomorrow. Mid North my target to find a seabreeze. Upper Mid North should fire strongly, Melrose etc but I'd expect cells closer than that. Will check again later but N of Port Broughton/Taree/Truro/Swan Reach tomorrow...

TS

Now there is someone that knows what they are talking about. Thanks Lennie. Look forward to it.

You able to get out and about Ben?

Thanks Lennie. TBH I didn't think stuff would be as close as that tomorrow.... might have to have another look... I thought up the Barrier and closer to Renmark yer but not as close as you've suggested...

Possibly tomorrow, maybe not Saturday but we'll see. I too was under the impression that Friday would be better near the eastern border. It does move west as the day wears on though.

Yer def starts out east but can see stuff forming as close as those mentioned areas come the end of the days convection, especially once seabreeze pushes a little extra convergence into the trough. Best areas I think 2moro are Melrose/Orrooroo/Peterborough and also No mans Land.

TS

Looking forward to Saturday, although I'll be on lower YP, not the best spot for this system, would much rather be mid/lower north.
That photo brings back memories TE, I was trapped by flood waters at Hansborough for a couple of hrs, where local farmer measured 147mm in 45mins!

Yer I was at my Nana's at kapunda.... I wasn't too involved in the xmas celebrations thats for sure lol....

okey dokey.... today is looking much better, pretty much in line with Lennie's suggestions above...
BOM have brought showers & thunderstorms into the Mid North forecast and this is the aviation:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NE OF Port Augusta/Balaklava/Renmark FROM 03Z.
You will see Cu south of that probably later, but doesn't look like any showers south of that line till overnight perhaps, and then definitely tomorrow...

Dave & I are heading off at about 10.30am and heading up the Barrier to start with...

edit: don't get too excited yet, but latest GFS has this easterly dip and monsoon remnants increasing here into next week... this may just be the entrée....