Hi everyone, front approaching the west by Saturday PM and certainly into the state by Sunday looks to have some interest about it. At the very least the prefrontal low looks to have some pretty strong N winds in front of it. There is then a rain/storm chance increasing from the west from Sat Night into Sunday, might peter out as it heads east though or dive SE ward. Front will have some remnants of the WA cyclone and has some pretty cold air in its wake although the mass of that will stay to our south. Should be enough to keep shower chance in coastal areas till Tuesday at least, maybe even a follow up surge of cool air to keep that going. Anyway another system to follow. Norwegian has 11mm here at home for Sunday pm and even at this time.

EC a few days ago had bumper falls in the SW, has calmed down since.

Well cant see EC and ACC longer term this morning as WZ have delayed that.

Good news is that remanants of the cyclone (such as they are) have been left behind by the trough and so HOPEFULLY can at least partially be involved in Sundays front. Should at least get the SW a chance for some ok rain.

Short term ACC, GFS and CMC seemed to have slowed the system a little. Perhaps the high and existing inland trough blocking it a little?

Hey gang!

I'm in Sydney atm but will be back home in Melbourne tomorrow, kinda moving from one weather system (heavy rains and flooding in NSW) to the next (this front/trough/low/ex-tropical cyclone remnants in Victoria) in just a space of 24 hours lol

Any chance of some truly severe summer thunderstorm action across the State this weekend?

AT maybe not quite as much in central areas, but east is a decent chance imo. But look at how ACCESS have mucked up the cold and hot air lines, on Wednesday its midway through NSW and Adelaide!

Truly severe? No chance whatsoever.

Run of the mill pusly cell that makes you go ? Probably in with a shot if you stick to the east of the state.

Still looking like the system will peak (rain wise) just prior to hitting our state, parts of the SW might sill grab a few more mm's (say double figures) but after that vey much the old "southern and mountain districts"forecast. Wind still looks impressive Sunday and I still wouldnt write off some storms out west Saturday night. Norwegian knocked me down to a very specific 4.4mm now.

Well had some nice convection going up mid afternoon and it felt humid and like storms might brew, but nothing. We had a shower 7.00pm yesterday with apparently a couple of rumbles yesterday, I drove though it coming home from Benalla. Looked to be brewing in Benalla when I left and apparently some afreas around the this region had half and inch, we had 2mm.
Chrstmasday was a good old stormy day and we had a good lightening display Chrsitmas eve, I am really missing those nights of sitting on the veranday watching the lightening. Even during the drought we may have not got the rainfall, but we did regulary get a good show during the summer. Kids and I spent many hours listening to the thunder and watching the lightening. So over a month and nothing really worth talking about. For this season the most we have had five minutes of rumble, a heavy shower then all gone. Where has the good all night thunderstorms and lightening gone? Last summer was a fizzer and this year hasnt been much better. Nothing to record for January. Mind you I do realise that coastal areas have probably had more action but inland has been ruddy boring. Sorry shouldnt whinge, but the weather is just nothing like it was twenty years even thiry years ago. I can remember in my child hood years, regularly putting the pillow over my years and the windows rattling becasue of the thunder going all night. Havent had that for a few years.

I was watching a nice line of development with that band as it crossed the south central this afternoon. Promising start but it did nothing. The last storm outlook I saw had a chance for the far NW tomorrow into Sunday but nothing elsewhere.

7 drips and a distant audible rumble on Sunday would help this SSDS sufferer.

Looking forward to prospects the weekend after.

looks like very quick gusty wind in big swing N/NW wind shifting SW/S then S/SE wind

BoMs four day outlooks have gone from chocolates to boiled lollies for Sunday with an ever so slight chance of some rain with a modicum of a chance of thunderstorms, but one thing seems for sure its going to be windy.

Not much changed for this event on the 12z run, still a chance of reasonable totals in the SW of the state and then it drags and slides itself across the rest of the southern areas. Probably be about 3-5mm here at home. Wind still looks fun as well. Follow up front should bring a burst of drizzle and shwrs to coastal parts Tuesday in some nice cool air.

Lots of cu around this side of the city atm. Nice cool air either side of 700hpa on the sounding I guess helping this sky. Quite warm above that so they wont go anywhere anytime soon.

Lovely surge of cold air behind this system and really starting to look ok. However, all models have it continuing to strengthen, peaking near maybe Adelaide or SE Sa and far SW Vic and then diving SE so it remains very much southern areas only with a chance of precip. Still hopeful of 3mm at least,this amount of temperature contrast has to produce some precip, surely lol, Norwegian has me down to 2mm tho....

Watch those hats and wigs tomorrow folks.

EC at least still likes the coastal drizzle surge Tuesday.

BOM still has the chance of a storm for us tomorrow evening - and we need it - the grass has gone white at the Golf Club (as it does in summer ).

Dish up some awesome weather for me after Tuesday

Just had a whole night of gusty winds, need something different for a change

Already some warnings in place for some parts of the state.

Down to 15 degrees at Portland. 26/11 here with baro at 994.0hpa.

Fog patches still burning off, calm and sunny here.

Very gusty out of the north here, got five or six spits at the end of my ride and hedging towards thinking that might be all we get out of this.

EDIT: BOM thinks we're up for 3 - 7mm. That would be nice, a lot of the non native trees round here are looking haggard.

Mt William 117km/hr.

31c and rising rapidly. Very gusty with 29km/h with gusts 39km/h. Overcast at times with some sun getting through occasionally.

30C and rising, baro 995 hPa falling, 50% light middle level cloud and a moderate northerly is establishing itself.

Just wondering Ruckle, where could I find the Norweigan models?

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Footscray/long.html

I like the long term option, just tweak your location.

In other news, pretty special temperature contrast developing across the state. Starting to get some rain totals in the SW as well.

Do you look much at the temperature predictions on those models? They seem a bit off.

The wind is pretty insane at the moment. My wx station does not do wind well, but has recorded a max of 42.8kph, which is up there with the highest it has recorded in it's 6 year history. I had to put 3 pegs on each clothing piece on the line in the hope it will not fly into the neighbours...6 streets away!

Current obs: 31.4C/5.7C 20% 992hPa

I know the wind is a lot stronger than my station reports...might venture out with the Kestrel, although I am in a fairly sheltered position. The house is creaking and the trees are howling and bending. Not nice at all.

Baro down further to 993 hPa, temp up to 34.5 C and northerly wind getting stronger, cloud seems to be building to the W but clear OH and to our E.

A risky arvo for grassfires in Gippsland!

These wind gusts are really strong here at the moment. The wind has been constant all morning and the gusts when they come literally rattle the north facing windows.
BOM says rain and storms expected this afternoon.
I really hope it is not too intense with the rain and storms.
Very concerned about the houses around here that still have partial covers over their
roofs where tiles are missing and damaged from Christmas day storms.

Wish we could just a change in weather, decent amount of rain
but no damaging storms ....please !!!

The winds will and any rain will peak around 3 or so before easing by evening in my opinion.

I think we've got grassfires around here at the moment Petros. Can smell it and hear the sirens but I'm finding the publicly available warnings/updates aren't what I'm used to. Insane gusts here. No idea how strong but they are the strongest I've felt since moving here. Sounds like a jet going over.

Fawkner Beacon has managed 100km/hr in the last 10 minutes.

Only seen this in winter with wind chill, but check out Morrabin! 32 degrees, apparent temperature, 22.

Only had a few spots of rain here, looks on radar like it is heading further south.
Still some of what I can see more west might make it to us, but the wind might be a factor.
Who knows.

Well I am driving to Pascoe Vale in a few minutes, should be a whole lot of fun on the freeway with this wind !

Looks like its going to be a gusty, showery time over the few hours.

Wind is wild around here. One poor car near us has lost its 'life' - squished by a large old gum tree.
Driving around here atm is a game of dodgem with branches on the roads.
The garage behind us (other property) sounds like its ready to take off too.
Just want rain and cooler temps atm

Reckon you should just batten down the hatches duck and wait till this eases, its pretty crazy,the cold front is at Melbournes door step but it should ease soon.

You're not kidding TheAnt.
Some gusts are coming through sending the trees on an amazing angle. Even our beloved magpie family have been caught up in these wind gusts - spectacular unintentional aerobatic maneuvers...
Calm one minute - 'cyclonic' the next.

Starting to see numerous cells just behind the wind change with yellow and orange in them. Wind change just minutes away, keen to open up the house but worried there might be a little dust on the shift..

Very rapid development and starting to turn into a yellow/orange line with red. Moving through quickly aswell.
Theres good potential for 10mm+ in this really.

Katyer, if you're still on here I reckon you're about to get wet. Ruckle, not sure about you. Looking at the radar loop, unless it continues to develop over the northern part of the line, it looks like the SW, Bayside and SW burbs will cop it but the NE and N will get nowt but a few drops.

and in the time it took me to write that it is now developing further north. Rain for everyone

Probably requires a STW by now? Or not maybe.

i am not surprise no storm line for the change and very windy with light dust from NW

I think its probably covered in the wind warning they've got out.

Spitting nice big drops, cooling fast also. Bit of lightning around Ballarat.

Lovely rain here atm. Wind kicked up again.

Why do I pick the best times to be out in the car? Just got bombarded with torrential rain. Some minor flash flooding on the highways around here and the creek's already on the rise.
Sounds of chainsaws popping up - next door had part of a tree land on their roof...there must be some nasty damage around the place.
Love the cooler temp...

so we just had some weird things happen. 3 hours without power and a massive storm move over us. it had some weird features. weird updrafts with lots of wispy bits rising up into the sky. i have some pictures ill try post later. we literally just got power back on

yeh...I was watching those updrafts too...some were whitish and others black...
Now we have got hail as I type
.....short lived hail spatter.

Thunder!

You're lucky, Ruckle, not even the smallest of distant rumbles here, BUT, absolutely loving the cooler temps!

Maxed out at 33.2C at about 2pm and is now down to 16.8C. Brilliant! Baro was down to 991hPa too, but that's now rising and up to 996hPa. 2mm so far. Loving the extremes, but I don't appreciate the wind. I hope everyone survived relatively unscathed.

Looking forward to sleeping tonight. Just as I mention no thunder...there was a rumble! Lol.

When's this fount to ease...

Just had a lightning flash and some thunder overhead.
Raining, occaisional wind gusts and lovely temp.

Had a couple of rumbles and some hail in Ivanhoe East.

New cell to my NW been watching develop has now just thundered twice in the last minute, yippee.

Also some nice cells going up to my W I can see as a little blue sky in front of them

Nice Hope it comes this way.

Sheesh, FLANG and first heavy rain for this event (though only for 2 or 3 mins)

I can also report a small shower of hail, slightly bigger than pea size. Was great! LOL!

I just joined the small hail club for the day. What a great weather day. Wind, rain, heat, cool temps, hail, thunder.

Cricket?

Homer

dlcat1, not sure how much we got here, just arrived home, but everything was certainly wet. Looks to have passed us by for now except for maybe a few showers left.

Ant, was there any storm warning posted, I haven't checked.

negative. no storm warning issued.

ps we are getting hammered by thunder and lightning now

Well the temp has dropped, lovely cool air blowing through the house. Still windy out there.
As I look out of the window there is light and blue sky in parts looking west, a few clouds but nothing much.
Looks like inner Melbourne had a downpour if the radar is correct.
Having trouble working the radar out at the moment heading toward us, but the small yellow areas seem to be dissipating, doesn't look like much in it for us.
Melbourne and bay side looks like another story.

just getting my own hail shower here @ q - i thought it was all over! dvc

... and 8.4 mm in the guage so far.

A few small cells might still hit but its starting to ease slowly now.

No storm warning required as they did not reach severe criteria (reported by spotters or public) Damaging winds were forecast over the past 24-36hrs.

700+ SES jobs suggest that this was a reasonable event, something that the ECC didn't forecast last Friday. Laughable given what most models were hinting (tight thermal gradient and remnants of ex-TC Iggy).

Hail! Yeah that's what I assumed Bulos, thanks

Hail in your area now ?? Blue sky and sunshine here now.
Ya gotta love the weather, we will never control it, amazing.

Its still developing but its moving too far east to affect us too much.

I would have thought the SES callouts were mostly wind related (looked at the MFB info map and it was very busy from early afternoon long before the first rain). There was a warning for damaging wind. Hard to have another warning for damaging damaging wind.

Beautiful to smell the cool damp air, the cricket is on, the sun is coming in the window clear and bright and we got some good thunder. What more could one want

As Katyer said lots of blue out this side atm. Just emptied exactly 4.0mm out of the gauge.

Yep its sunny here now.

Most places seem to have got a 15 degree temp drop with the event, that's like southerly buster on the nsw south cost.

Sun is out here now. LOL!

Been out waterskiing and have been cursing another dry change after strong SW'lys rolled through an hour ago.

Pushed away our 35.8 C airmass (circa 1pm) and dropped us to 22C in no time at 6pm. No rain.

For the first time since lunch looked at the Vic radar loop and find that storms are making their way through the LV towards us (and its already cool!?).

So maybe the next 40 mins might allow me to record a "storm".

Anything to report Petros, over your way ??

Not a cracker Katyer, another dry change and I just hate those. The lightning I observed last post must have died away by Traralgon.

Still the kids had a great arvo skiing - its not very often that I can record a 35.8 C day with a cool preceding night and a cool (coldish!) evening (21C) at Maffra in February!!!

Oh well at least you had a nice day. Hard to believe such a low temp though isn't it. Lovely and cool here at the moment.

Hi Guys long time no see.

We managed around 8mm in Elwood over the course of 2 hours this evening. First real measurable rain since Christmas here. sorry to hear others missed out.

B

Are you watching the Oncoming Patterns . I think you Guys are Due for a Drink !!!!!!!

No rain here. Very windy, but thankfully nothing like the winds experienced in some Melbourne suburbs yesterday. 14c this morning with an expected top of 26c.

this morning was beautiful. i love it. when i woke up and went to the bathroom i could feel the cool tiles and i was like " this is what i love" nice crisp morning and no heat.

only thing i like about heat and summer is storms. i despise the rest of it.

come back winter and cold air tornadoes

Nice dry day today, felt a bit like March. Quite a lot of branches and mess around this suburb and also a few in the CBD I noticed. Still a chance of some drizzle tonight or in the morning but coast should do best. Will keep the cool air going which is great.

Even after the change, we still managed 25.8C here today in a sunny wanna-be-cool SW'ly. Baro has only kicked up to 1005 hPa which may be signalling something for the soon to develop easterly dip later this week?

Little line of drizzle and showers crossing W Gippy coast and down around the peninsula. Interesting to see if it makes it much further inland. Suspect it will struggle. Still some cool air, might be a random decent shower or two

Twas an interesting little developing approaching midnight last night!
http://www.oscilmet.com.au/?page=loops.m...nish=1328541600