Update from The JTWC
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
146.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT 512 KM COMPOSITE
radar FROM WILLIS
ISLAND INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A 031119Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30-45 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSS EQUATORIAL SURGE,
BUT ONLY 10-25 KNOT EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
A 031752Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS AT THE EASTERN END OF AN
INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE TOP OF AUSTRALIA IN AN AREA OF 20-25 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER THE VWS DECREASES JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT
REMAINS FAVORABLE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO THE NARROW BUT HIGHLY FAVORABLE
LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS OVER THE CORAL SEA, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.