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#1070666 - 3/02/2012 16:14 Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12
OzCyChaser Trav Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
A thread needs to be created for this low as a cyclone will likely form in the coral sea soon.

Townsville residents are reporting
barometric pressures ranging from 989hpa - 996hpa

Sorry mods was on my I phone and screwed up the dates

_________________________
http://www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au - Australia's first dedicated Cyclone chasing team
http://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers - Join our Facebook group for live updates while we're chasing.
http://www.swxc.net - Our local storm chasing website

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#1070683 - 3/02/2012 16:37 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: OzCyChaser Trav]
camshaft Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Loc: Cairns
Cool! Whats your take on this system trav at its current situation?

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#1070688 - 3/02/2012 16:39 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: OzCyChaser Trav]
Brett Guy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Gonna be very dissapointing if this thing becomes 'Jasmine'. I suppose the best we can hope for is that she is not as embarrising as 'Fina'. I know I will crack it if it called a cyclone and doesn't manage to get gales right round.

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#1070690 - 3/02/2012 16:41 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: camshaft]
OzCyChaser Trav Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
Hey cam unfortunately I'm at work and only have time to skip through a radar image once every half hour so I don't really have a good idea of what's going on.

I do think though we will see steady intensification overnight and the low should form cyclone Jasmine in the next 24 hours.

This might be our last best chance of rainfall in NQ for a while so lets hope we can pick up a good 50mm overnight.
_________________________
http://www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au - Australia's first dedicated Cyclone chasing team
http://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers - Join our Facebook group for live updates while we're chasing.
http://www.swxc.net - Our local storm chasing website

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#1070692 - 3/02/2012 16:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Brett Guy]
FNQ Bunyip Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/12/2004
Loc: North bank river Daintree
With you there BG , its a bit embarrassing being a queenslander when they name any little blow ..lol
_________________________
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?...;hl=en_US#gid=0

2012 YTD 2805mm

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#1070693 - 3/02/2012 16:42 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: OzCyChaser Trav]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I just see some good big lighting this afternoon in Townsville I been trying to tell Mick10 all about it.
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland.....
Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.6mm
(Last hour 0.0mm - 0.3mm
Last 24 hour 0.3mm, Last week 0.3mm, last Month 15.9mm.

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#1070694 - 3/02/2012 16:45 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Mathew]
Things Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Loc: Wodonga, Vic
Reading 990.4hPa absolute and 991.9hPa relative here in Cairns at the moment. Just had a short 52km/h gust come through.
_________________________
Currently: 13.5°C - 58%
High: 14.5°C - Low: 0.4°C
Year: 111.6mm -- Month: 2.1mm -- Today: 0.0mm
Last update: 15:28:27 21/05/12

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#1070697 - 3/02/2012 16:52 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Things]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Loc: trinity park q
it nearly looks like two lows ,with a new one forming just above Cooktown

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#1070698 - 3/02/2012 16:53 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Things]
@_Yasified_shak Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 7/03/2009
Loc: El Arish
according to the BOM it is going to scoot off to the sth east and "possibly" develop outside 160E

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30pm EST on Friday the 3rd of February 2012 and valid until end of
Monday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough extends across north Queensland and the northern Coral Sea
while a weak low currently sits over the northwest Coral Sea, about 200km
east-northeast of Cairns. The low is forecast to move east-southeast across the
Coral Sea and be east of 160E by late Sunday. The low may develop slightly over
the next couple of days. Even if this low does become a tropical cyclone it is
unlikely to have any significant impact along the Queensland coast.

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Very Low
_________________________
Rainfall 2010 2011 2012
MTD Jan 429mm Feb 626.1mm. Mar 1592.8mm Apr 103.0mm
YTD 2647.9mm
2011 total 5859.1

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#1070700 - 3/02/2012 16:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Things]
Dianekmt Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 14/02/2011
Loc: QLD, Australia.

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#1070701 - 3/02/2012 16:56 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Loc: trinity park q
interesting chart from meteo france http://www.meteo.nc/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15&Itemid=23 shows a new low near Cooktown

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#1070703 - 3/02/2012 17:00 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: wetfnq]
camshaft Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: wetfnq
interesting chart from meteo france http://www.meteo.nc/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15&Itemid=23 shows a new low near Cooktown


That is the low we are looking at isn't it lol ?

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#1070705 - 3/02/2012 17:03 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: wetfnq]
Brett Guy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Where? I see the fiji/new cal low and the Cairns low that is the subject of this thread. Where is the other. Am I missing something?

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#1070708 - 3/02/2012 17:04 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: wetfnq]
wetfnq Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Loc: trinity park q
i think the low on JTWC is at 155, 18' and the other one is at 147,17' http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shnewguinea.html

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#1070717 - 3/02/2012 17:18 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: wetfnq]
OzCyChaser Trav Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
My call of it forming in 24 hours though was based on model guidance from last night though. I haven't seen any models since haha.
_________________________
http://www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au - Australia's first dedicated Cyclone chasing team
http://www.facebook.com/ozcyclonechasers - Join our Facebook group for live updates while we're chasing.
http://www.swxc.net - Our local storm chasing website

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#1070720 - 3/02/2012 17:22 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: OzCyChaser Trav]
Brett Guy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 5/10/2010
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
No real low at 155. Must be a miistake somewhere.

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#1070730 - 3/02/2012 17:36 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Dianekmt]
gawain Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 4/07/2007
Loc: kuranda, qld

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#1070739 - 3/02/2012 17:57 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: gawain]
JasonUma Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 24/01/2012
I see Norfolk island radar is out of action

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#1070740 - 3/02/2012 17:58 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: gawain]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Loc: Brisbane
Fairly broad area of low pressure but a nice looking LLCC on vis 1km (but fairly free of convection)

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#1070743 - 3/02/2012 18:06 Re: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Coral Sea, SPAC) 4/2/12 - 17/2/12 [Re: Brett Guy]
Jasmine Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 5/03/2011
Loc: Cairns Australia
Originally Posted By: Brett Guy
Gonna be very dissapointing if this thing becomes 'Jasmine'. I suppose the best we can hope for is that she is not as embarrising as 'Fina'. I know I will crack it if it called a cyclone and doesn't manage to get gales right round.


hmmm interesting post, did not know that the name 'Jasmine' was that bad for a cyclone...

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