Okay so lets just see what happens here but today there has been a "LOW" spinning on the satellite and is seems to be moving WSW and it may or may not have a chance to hit SE QLD.



No charts support this but Discuss...

An approaching trough is likely stop it in its tracks before it has any impact on our weather. Thats what GFS is forecasting anyway and looking at the current synoptic chart I'm inclined to believe it.

No storms for the foreseeable outlook.Winter sky outside with mega heat and humidity...Crap!! Ah well least the surfs gonna be doin it

Check out the short video clip on youtube Riu Cancun Thunderstorm some intense positive lightning, what we need on the coast to make up for a slack storm season again

well i beg to differ, look where it is moving!

where did you get the imagery from antonio? i'm interested in following .. altho I hope that don't hit anywhere along QLD/NE NSW

i got my information from my eyes, i can see this thing moving W SW and until theres nothing left i wont put it off, hasnt it happened before that unforecast things have happened and i was right..

Very impressive on the water vapour loop but its about to hit a brick wall which is sitting on top of us atm

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgms.html

Yes, I have to agree with Locke I'm afraid (depending on your viewpoint). The upper ridge which is steering it SW is forecast to collapse with the approaching upper trough. This will stall its progress well offshore from SEQ where it will eventually drift harmlessly south. However, in different circumstances, this would have been interesting.

While the satellite imagery does look menacing, this low will have a fairly negligible affect on the weather in SE QLD & NE NSW. The low will approach the SEQLD/NENSW coast over the next two days but all indications are that this low will stay off the coast.

It should bring an increase in swell as it hovers off the coast on the 5th/6th, and it could be a bit breezy on the 7th/8th. Any rain that falls over SEQLD/NENSW in the next 4-5 days will be caused by a trough hanging about the area, rather than directly from the low itself.

What would happen if the low did hit? just asking thats all

Rain and wind But it does not seem too bad at the moment, but considering all the rain we have had any moderate-to-heavy falls would cause some havoc.

Not wrong there! we only had 8mm here last night but the yard was under water so fast! it was like it had rained all day all week. today its sloshy

It's not going to hit Antonio, the trough is going to catch it and move it back out to sea.

Antonio weren't you in Ballina 2-3 years ago in winter....think it was about June '09 when a low crossed the coast in Ballina? I remember driving home and seeing the Hungry Jacks sign on the opposite side of the highway and power poles on a 45 degree angle leaning towards the caravan park at West Ballina near the Emigrant Creek boat ramp...not to mention heaps of trees down on the Perry's Hill cutting with 2 lanes at a time clear.

So that gives you an idea of what would happen Antonio :-p

I am just a real lurker, enjoy evertyhing, but have no idea of the terminology, so forgive my amature terms and questions.

would I be right in seeing that this system would not travel towards SE coast, because of the large system coming over the bight, and also pushed along by the winds thru timor, PNG etc.is the monsoon now it is far east of us, dipping over the pacific islandsbeing kept out that way - where as last week would the systems to our west/south, been less dominant, allowing the monsoon to become dominant and push south?

Without the context of the whole south pacific that sat pic is worrying, but already is being pushed towards nz - looking at the entire satalitte ---> on the side - the dominant systems are the westerlys - (would these be the trade winds? what is the trough, the system pushing ahead of the bight, or the pocket behind the monsoon over the indian ocean?

Maccarosoft - from what I understand, the systems in winter (ECL's?) are different from those born in the summer tropical waters.

A little off topic but,

All the 'events' lately have been quite extraordinary but not all events = end of the world I think it is a good opportunity to discuss how 2 or 3 systems are directly infulincing our area, in a non threatning event.

I know there is a day to day event thread, but if I do not understand what the charts mean, or the terms being used, it is not really relevent.

Antonio did post that there is no charts to support this, so aybe by one of the more experinced posters could give us an outline with charts of how this event plays - both why it will not be a threat and what would need to be different to be a threat (or what WAS different to cause those BIG events) without the threat of a power outage, or having to get home safely from work. It might help some of us to understand it all better.

I have the following IR links, but is there a index of the non tropics areas, like southern ocean etc? or australia as a whole? http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/

also - the sat pic posted above is a screenshot, a time stamp would help with the context, would it have been 5pm when post made or ealier?

at 2am, the system is clearly pushed well off and movement is west.

I didn't ask where you got your information from - I asked where you got the image from! because I wanted to keep an eye on it too - even tho it's not going to affect us, it would be interesting to follow .. so which website did you use? thanks

nice sat pic, but thats all thats gonna come form this one......a nice sat pic

yep, looking at the satellite loop this morning it's already moving more S.

This is what your after pkgjmg in the link below, and off to the south it goes!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/vsmtsat.html

I remember that low in ballina mate in 09 it looked like a cyclone on the radar i was at shelly beach the whole house was shaking an felt like a cyclone, but if anything id be watching the low up north,

Sorry i go here : http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

then select your region and click images and movies, the loop is on the bottom says flash

Neither one of them lows will have any impact on the QLD ne nsw coast guys, there both going to slip ese.

LQQKN , june 3 2010 wasnt any better , thats the morning of the lennox waterspout, Alstonville had 400mm between midnight & 6am , most rain in a day since march '74 at that location. Sorry off topic but just brought up that memory.
looks like we will have a little wait for any tropical action at this stage.

wasnt going to happen was clear that the developing upper trough is going to caputre it and stop it form reaching us bring on the next event

Thread should not have been started IMO, Discussion should have taken place in the Tropical Sub Forums. No models at any stage were showing this having an impact on SEQ or NE NSW.