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#1072389 - 7/02/2012 08:18 Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	A developing low and trough over the eastern interior of Australia is forecast to dip into Victoria and bring with it rain and possible storms, particularly in the eastern half of Victoria. It appears that we should receive some good falls out of this and those who are feeling storm deprived may get some relief.
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#1072393 - 7/02/2012 08:31 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
Bulos Weather Freak Registered: 16/01/2011 Loc: Donvale	Good work Gabby!! 12z looks very good indeed. Would like to see this scenario hold during the 00z runs. Instability levels look good from Thursday, so at the very least some storm activity is likely!
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#1072447 - 7/02/2012 11:48 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Bulos]
Petros Weatherzone Addict Registered: 30/12/2002 Loc: Inverloch Vic	Thanks Gabby - an ECL (albiet a brief visit from one at this stage) looks pretty likely for next Saturday!
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#1072738 - 7/02/2012 18:04 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Petros]
TheAnt Weather Freak Registered: 16/11/2011 Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...	Lol at ACCESS models being completely stuffed.
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#1072773 - 7/02/2012 18:37 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: TheAnt]
Petros Weatherzone Addict Registered: 30/12/2002 Loc: Inverloch Vic	Well I cant recall such a matching set of model progs for the full outlooks as we have now!!!! AccR agrees with WZ agrees with CMC agrees with EC (albiet 12 hrs stale) agrees with GFS which agrees with AccG (also albiet stale). WOW - we have a fully agreed easterly dip developing into an ECL over SE NSW by Saturday. Whether or not building high pressure over Tassie re-bounds the ECL back up NNE into NSW during Sunday is the only point of dissagreement. If it hangs around.... = potential flooding in Vics E. Heres CMC's outlook for Saturday (backed with more again on Sunday!!).....
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#1072838 - 7/02/2012 20:43 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Weather Freak Registered: 31/01/2011 Loc: Melbourne (inner nth), Victori...	Moving on Saturday
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#1072896 - 7/02/2012 21:49 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: dlcat1]
Petros Weatherzone Addict Registered: 30/12/2002 Loc: Inverloch Vic	It all comes down to if Fergus croaks...... or not.
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#1073137 - 8/02/2012 06:21 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Petros]
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	Rainfall estimates for Friday have gone from 1-5mm seven days ago to 10-20mm, back to 1-5mm. A bit of a disappointment as yesterdays outlook was still 10-20mm. Thursdays estimates are 5-10mm.
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#1073139 - 8/02/2012 06:54 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	I should have said above that I was referring very specifically to the Yarrawonga/Mulwala area. Also looks as though the dates for this event may need changing down the track as this event looks like lasting for at least five to six days.
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#1073178 - 8/02/2012 09:03 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
xenon_2000 Cloud Gazer Registered: 23/09/2006 Loc: Waterloo Corner SA	Hi guys, am flying over to Melbourne Friday for a few days of R&R.What are my chances of some action? (weather wise) 8-)
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#1073187 - 8/02/2012 09:22 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: xenon_2000]
Petros Weatherzone Addict Registered: 30/12/2002 Loc: Inverloch Vic	Drizzly cloudy cool for your R&R if I'm reading this mornings runes correctly. Chances of heavy rain for SE Vic are downplayed during last nights run as Gabby has noted.
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#1073235 - 8/02/2012 11:56 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Petros]
thunderunder Weather Freak Registered: 12/09/2011 Loc: Stewarton	Yes rainsfall estimations have dropped for here too. Although for tomorrow wz have 40% chance of recieving 10-20mm sunny with possible storm. So we have a dip, we have a trough and a low that all linger for days (my perception of reading synoptic chart) and there is plenty of moisture to draw from. Plus quiet a few days of potential for storms to develope. Flooding in Qld and NSW. Yet rainfall totals dont seem to be too exciting for the majority of the state. Any thoughts people? (other then it is summer, ment to be dry and hot) Oh & no word from Fergus yet.
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#1073240 - 8/02/2012 12:15 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: xenon_2000]
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	"Hi guys, am flying over to Melbourne Friday for a few days of R&R.What are my chances of some action? (weather wise) 8-) " Well Xenon_2000. This event has been heralded as largely an eastern Victorian event, but when I looked at the BoM Explorer this morning the whole of the state was a possibility for storms at some time over the weekend, which I was surprised to see, but in my experience of the Explorer it very much overestimates storm possibilities. Hope the weather for your R&R turns out to be what you would like it to be.
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#1073312 - 8/02/2012 14:42 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	Forecast has changed again. Now we are back to the original prediction of heavier falls on Friday, 10-20mm, 5-10mm on Thursday, 1-5mm Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
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#1073328 - 8/02/2012 15:15 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
Things Weatherzone Addict Registered: 29/11/2009 Loc: Wodonga, Vic	Looks like this forecast explorer thing has storms starting in my area from tomorrow morning? How accurate is it usually? definitely hot enough for it. Could they possibly get severe? _________________________ Currently: 13.5°C - 57% High: 14.5°C - Low: 0.4°C Year: 111.6mm -- Month: 2.1mm -- Today: 0.0mm Last update: 15:38:27 21/05/12
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#1073354 - 8/02/2012 15:57 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Things]
Gabby Weatherzone Addict Registered: 23/03/2002 Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...	Forecast Explorer seems to generalise as to where storms may crop up, so its certainly not accurate pinpointing specific places. As for severity well some of the other posters, more adept at reading the finer points of the models may be able to answer that.
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#1073374 - 8/02/2012 16:40 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Gabby]
TheAnt Weather Freak Registered: 16/11/2011 Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...	A very stormy/rainy week followed by some heat by next Wednesday. Also I doubt that there will be any storms in Melbourne tommorow even though the BOM says there is a chance. What do you guys thin? Edited by TheAnt (8/02/2012 16:45)
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#1073387 - 8/02/2012 17:03 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: TheAnt]
StormchaseR19 Weather Freak Registered: 7/11/2010 Loc: Victoria Melbourne NW suberbs	just checked the convective outlook for Thursday it says that possibly severe storms may develop in the Melbourne area how accurate is that?
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#1073419 - 8/02/2012 17:53 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: StormchaseR19]
Meso7 Weather Freak Registered: 1/12/2011 Loc: Bendigo, VIC	I find the convective outlook on WZ to be too broad. A lot of the time when there is only a realistic chance of storms in one area of Victoria it will have a big red blob over the entire state. Stormcast is a lot more reliable for getting an idea of where storms might pop up. Although, like any model, often made to look silly by mother nature. _________________________ www.youtube.com/user/MesoChaser7 www.redbubble.com/people/meso
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#1073421 - 8/02/2012 17:57 Re: Vic developing low and trough 9th to 12th February [Re: Meso7]
TheAnt Weather Freak Registered: 16/11/2011 Loc: Caulfield, Melbourne (SE Burbs...	Plus BOM give a 10% chance of rain tommorow for CBD, which means imo theres even a smaller (albeit very little) chance of storms.
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