A developing low and trough over the eastern interior of Australia is forecast to dip into Victoria and bring with it rain and possible storms, particularly in the eastern half of Victoria. It appears that we should receive some good falls out of this and those who are feeling storm deprived may get some relief.

Good work Gabby!!

12z looks very good indeed. Would like to see this scenario hold during the 00z runs. Instability levels look good from Thursday, so at the very least some storm activity is likely!

Thanks Gabby - an ECL (albiet a brief visit from one at this stage) looks pretty likely for next Saturday!

Lol at ACCESS models being completely stuffed.

Well I cant recall such a matching set of model progs for the full outlooks as we have now!!!!

AccR agrees with WZ agrees with CMC agrees with EC (albiet 12 hrs stale) agrees with GFS which agrees with AccG (also albiet stale).

WOW - we have a fully agreed easterly dip developing into an ECL over SE NSW by Saturday. Whether or not building high pressure over Tassie re-bounds the ECL back up NNE into NSW during Sunday is the only point of dissagreement. If it hangs around.... = potential flooding in Vics E.

Heres CMC's outlook for Saturday (backed with more again on Sunday!!).....

Moving on Saturday

It all comes down to if Fergus croaks...... or not.

Rainfall estimates for Friday have gone from 1-5mm seven days ago to 10-20mm, back to 1-5mm. A bit of a disappointment as yesterdays outlook was still 10-20mm. Thursdays estimates are 5-10mm.

I should have said above that I was referring very specifically to the Yarrawonga/Mulwala area. Also looks as though the dates for this event may need changing down the track as this event looks like lasting for at least five to six days.

Hi guys, am flying over to Melbourne Friday for a few days of R&R.What are my chances of some action? (weather wise) 8-)

Drizzly cloudy cool for your R&R if I'm reading this mornings runes correctly.

Chances of heavy rain for SE Vic are downplayed during last nights run as Gabby has noted.

Yes rainsfall estimations have dropped for here too. Although for tomorrow wz have 40% chance of recieving 10-20mm sunny with possible storm.

So we have a dip, we have a trough and a low that all linger for days (my perception of reading synoptic chart) and there is plenty of moisture to draw from. Plus quiet a few days of potential for storms to develope. Flooding in Qld and NSW. Yet rainfall totals dont seem to be too exciting for the majority of the state. Any thoughts people? (other then it is summer, ment to be dry and hot)

Oh & no word from Fergus yet.

"Hi guys, am flying over to Melbourne Friday for a few days of R&R.What are my chances of some action? (weather wise) 8-) "

Well Xenon_2000. This event has been heralded as largely an eastern Victorian event, but when I looked at the BoM Explorer this morning the whole of the state was a possibility for storms at some time over the weekend, which I was surprised to see, but in my experience of the Explorer it very much overestimates storm possibilities. Hope the weather for your R&R turns out to be what you would like it to be.

Forecast has changed again. Now we are back to the original prediction of heavier falls on Friday, 10-20mm, 5-10mm on Thursday, 1-5mm Saturday, Sunday, Monday.

Looks like this forecast explorer thing has storms starting in my area from tomorrow morning? How accurate is it usually? definitely hot enough for it. Could they possibly get severe?

Forecast Explorer seems to generalise as to where storms may crop up, so its certainly not accurate pinpointing specific places. As for severity well some of the other posters, more adept at reading the finer points of the models may be able to answer that.

A very stormy/rainy week followed by some heat by next Wednesday.
Also I doubt that there will be any storms in Melbourne tommorow even though the BOM says there is a chance. What do you guys thin?

just checked the convective outlook for Thursday it says that possibly severe storms may develop in the Melbourne area how accurate is that?

I find the convective outlook on WZ to be too broad. A lot of the time when there is only a realistic chance of storms in one area of Victoria it will have a big red blob over the entire state. Stormcast is a lot more reliable for getting an idea of where storms might pop up. Although, like any model, often made to look silly by mother nature.

Plus BOM give a 10% chance of rain tommorow for CBD, which means imo theres even a smaller (albeit very little) chance of storms.