Just to let you know the radar for here is located in Yarrawonga about 100 clicks to the west and the. AWS is located at the Albury airport going towards the Hume Dam,and IMO in the wrong place.

Storms around Pakenham again!

I think the wind is wrong for storms in Melbourne. I haven't looked but on the way home it felt like it was coming off the Bay. Someone please tell me if I've got it wrong.

Yep just missed us Ruckle but I have been listening to the thunder.It was great watching the storms develop.
Currently 26.5c

There are some huge clouds building towards or over Packy at the moment. Been watching them build - stunning tops.

Drove N up the Nambrock plains into a general lowering mid level cloud bank drifting S off the mountains for the whole northern horizon, "that smell" very rich, early view before it all got obscured looked promising for heavy rain up over the Thompson Dam.

Got home to find thunder in the cloud and we had a period of rain that delivered 1mm and about 10 C-C rumbles before drifting off to Sale.
Our local BOM forecast is for storms today and for the following 3 days with "scattered showers" each day.

This is how AccR adds up the accumulated total from the "scattered showers" for tomorrow night into Sat morning.....



Maffra sits nicely under that pretty prple colour!


As usual, the nature for small/strong ECL's - nobody really can forecast far ahead where the intense rain will fall due to the near-impossibility to model low pressure systems that are only covering areas of square 100's of KM's in models that have at best 50 kM gribs (acka accR above - which is the most accurate right now for Vic next 72 hrs).

Maffra might get bad flooding (Glenmaggie is abnormally full (81%) for mid Feb), with a catchment area 5 times the size of the Thompson dam, or may get a couple of drizzly thundery days.

Those living in Newry/Tinamba and the Maffra backwater will have their phones ringing I reckon - about now.

My opinion? - we are going to get drenched.

[edit] 6:30pm - BOM have issued a SSW from Wonthaggi to Bright (basically over Maffras W to N aspect, so if the cloud clear, it may provide a nice lighting show for us when it gets dark

Going by that chart the NE will be lucky to get more than 5mms over the next 3 days.Again the charts were looking good for some decent rain a few days ago but not anymore.

What are the chances of more storms building up this way tonight?

Bring it on Petros!!
Interestingly during the C9 weather, the delightful Livinia went into good detail about probably flooding through Gippsland. Excellent work from her and proactive given that the BOM has failed in issuing a Flood Watch for Gippsland.

Petros, your concern re. Glenmaggie is exactly why a heads-up approach should be used. NSW did this well during the last fortnight, QLD don't believe in them, and we all well aware of the results of that lack of foresight!

Trough will continue to deepen and travel further west overnight. Today is merely an entree for tomorrow for the same areas, and will include Melbourne.

Some decent flash flooding and rainfall totals likely down the Bass Highway!!

Yep, I reckon around 5-10mm over tommorow for the CBD and A LOT for the Gippslanders. Water and the Land forecasts showing low chances for anything in excess of 10-15mm over the next couple of days for the CBD, and a low chance for close to 100mm over the next 3 days.

43mm in the last hour at Lang Lang.
Still no Flood Watch for Gippsland.

3mm here in Traralgon from a period of light thundery rain that set in around 6pm. Couple of lightning bolts on approach but not much in the way of heavy rain. Seems to have eased to a light drizzly rain for now although more looks to be rolling off the hills - notice 18mm has fallen at Baw Baw.

Thats a ripper looking cell currently trekking towards Drouin/Warragul at the moment - seems to have a mind of its own with the main core appearing to split from the original core and move to the right. 43mm at Lang Lang provides a great indication of its intensity and is in line with the predicted hit and miss nature of the event. They'll probably be dry for the rest of the event after tonight!

Call me a severe weather Novice . But that storm west of Drouin ( may or may not just been a Left mover ) and now over Drouin moved very fast .

Right now we have thick low/mid level cloud all over inching in from the NNW - cant see any lightning, but fully expecting at least 5mm of overnight rain here. No more thunder or rain since the 1mm I posted earlier.

WOW at the HUGE storm that has dithered some 20-40 km S of Packy over the past 90 minutes. Its a good thing that the Desal pipeline trenches are covered this time around

And just heard a rumble from the NW just right now!!!

The NE .... of Vic?? If so, a big call, not saying you are certain to be wrong - but things are the most volitile out this way (E Vic) that I've felt for years.

What's the chance of more storms out wodonga way tonight, or has the trough moved out of the way? Seems to be something building out the NNW, much further out than today.

wow iv been super sick for the past few days confined to bed mostly and missed tonight's action. so i checked the archive and wow what a weird storm.

it started to move south and then after the intensity it shot off east. very weird. but an awesome structure pakenham sure has copped it recently. i wont if anything great happened because this storm had the look going.

i wonder if how friendly pakky moderator will enlighten us with some pictures

SES has had call outs in the Tynong area due to flooding. Large hail reported in Bayles. Garfield has also had some flooding. I will update when I know more. No pics as my main camera gear is still getting its yearly service but the mammatus looked insane there for a while

EF - Loo has already said the storm was to Packy's S a page back.

The odd muffled rumble (more felt than heard) from Maffra's far W (sounds like the product of a big storm somewhere - but it could be anywhere around a 120 deg. arc from this perspective. The LangLang storm even? A few spits of rain starting and a very heavy sky from what I can make out.

Nice to see double the posts for this event than other forums! (Well done Loo and other Vic moderators!).

Welcome new fellow Vic (or do you call yourself an NSWander?). Thanks for packing some Townsville moisture with you in your kitbag!!! (or maybe some of us will be cursing you in a few days time??).

Re the trough positioning, I recommend you just use the BOM MSLP chart to work that out ..... http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml


We've had a 5 minute period of light rain again here just now, but distant thunder has stopped.

A drizzly night for here from now on IMO.

Things should be very interesting tomorrow for Victorians!!!