#1073989 - 9/02/2012 23:19
SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
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Weather Freak
Registered: 9/08/2009
Loc: SE QLD
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I thought I would start another post for this event as it relates to a different upper level trough. This next system looks to have a bit more promise than the one just gone. GFS is still a bit out of line, but EC, TWC, Access etc all tend to be in general agreement. 1. An upper level low will anchor itself in NSW from Fri - Sun. Looking out to Saturday; A surface trough and a weak surface low is positioned just west of the Darling Downs. Dew points over the Darling Downs should be about 16 - 20. CAPE should be about 1,000 - 1,500 in the afternoon, LI's of about -4. With surface winds from the N-NE it’s probably a bit more favourable for storms then what we have seen the past few days. If this comes off, it will be good to chase in open space again. 
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#1074000 - 9/02/2012 23:38
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Tejay]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
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Thanks Tejay. I made a thread for this event... then I saw yours. So I deleted it.
This weekend and early part of next week is set to produce another round of potentially good storm activity. Unfortunately, BSCH/GFS stormcast is offline at the moment. But, I did have a quick look this afternoon for Saturday's potential from todays 00Z run 'taking it 1 day at the time'. It was showing a sounding similar to what occurred earlier this week cloud height to about 27000ft and okayish instability. 925mb winds were indicating a convergence area along the ranges during the afternoon disappating at night. This is where most of the activity should occur.
Access-A and Access-R and EC also showing decent Precip (storm dumps) for the ranges not so much closer to the coast at this stage. But this should change During Monday/Tuesday as the main upper trough edges it's way closer to the coast.
_________________________
March 2012 rainfall: 0.0mm (avg: 158.1mm)
2012 Rainfall YTD: 1016.0mm (avg: 1385.6mm)
2011 Total: 1734.6mm
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#1074096 - 10/02/2012 10:18
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 9/08/2009
Loc: SE QLD
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Hmm, slight change this morning - Access-A and Access-R seem to have fallen in alignment with GFS for Saturday. GFS was suggesting insufficient moisture all week beyond the ranges.
TWC is still trying to sell a completely different story with the heaviest precipitation on the downs with dew points of +18.
I guess we just need to give the models more time to come into alignment.
I am surprised there is not more talk about this, as far as I am concerned this is the best chance we have had for about a month.
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#1074173 - 10/02/2012 13:48
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 24/08/2007
Loc: , tweed coast
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some small cells popping up way out west wel see what happens with heating, tho looks good down souuth
_________________________
one for burly
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#1074442 - 11/02/2012 05:18
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: LQQKN]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 16/10/2010
Loc: Southport QLD
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Lovely line of storms moving in from the west all across SE QLD and NE NSW atm, but will they make it to the coast?
_________________________
"Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery; but let this not blind you to what virtue there is." - the Desiderata - think about it
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#1074452 - 11/02/2012 07:44
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Cloudz]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 31/01/2011
Loc: Jindalee, QLD
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Lovely line of storms moving in from the west all across SE QLD and NE NSW atm, but will they make it to the coast? Doesn't look like it. Seem to be dissipating as they reach the range.
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#1074472 - 11/02/2012 09:25
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Coxy]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
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In my observation that most of the rain is making the coast. The purpose of why those storm cells are fizzing because of lower instability is currently over the eastern escarpment and coastal plains.
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012)
Majoring in climate change and disaster management
James Cook University Townsville
TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
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#1074478 - 11/02/2012 09:41
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: MathewTownsend]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 29/01/2011
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Could we adjust the date on one of the two threads that cover today. If anything develops as the day progresses, it might get confusing where to post (there is one for 7-11 Feb, and one for 11-14 Feb).
Bring on the storms!
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#1074487 - 11/02/2012 10:06
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: snoopydoo]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
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looks good for storms today they will be moving to the SE today
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook https://www.facebook.com/SunshineCoastWeather The page to go to for your up to date weather information and warnings.From Southern Capricornia to Northern Brisbane.
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#1074505 - 11/02/2012 11:00
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Mattqldstorms]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
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In my observation that NR probably is best to chase today due to great positioning of the trough and severe storms. Looking at the radar I can see its in western parts of NR heading ENE towards the coast now. How it looking down there today?
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012)
Majoring in climate change and disaster management
James Cook University Townsville
TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
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#1074515 - 11/02/2012 11:34
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: MathewTownsend]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/09/2010
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
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I am guessing the radar will start firing up at about 1pm this afternoon.
Edited by Mattqldstorms (11/02/2012 11:35)
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#1074540 - 11/02/2012 12:43
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/09/2010
Loc: Ipswich- Yamanto Queensland
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It's all blue skies around here now, it's really starting to heat up here now, going to head out to Brissy though hoping to see some storm action out that way!
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#1074565 - 11/02/2012 13:14
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Dragonfly]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/06/2001
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
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Arg... I would REALLY love to have a webcam out at Warwick. Seriously, if anyone knows someone with a view please PM me or post here... a camera in Warwick and a camera in Toowoomba would be great (actually anywhere up on the range there between the two would do!).
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#1074577 - 11/02/2012 13:22
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Ben Quinn(Bodie)]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 22/01/2012
Loc: Aspley, Brisbane
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the Darling Downs and Granite Belt and parts of the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Capricornia, Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:14 pm Saturday, 11 February 2012.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Warwick, Toowoomba, Dalby, Kingaroy, Stanthorpe and Goondiwindi.
Edited by MG4R (11/02/2012 13:23)
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
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#1074582 - 11/02/2012 13:25
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: Dragonfly]
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SEQLD / NENSW Moderator
Registered: 18/09/2005
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
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STW has been issued: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for LARGE HAILSTONES and FLASH FLOODING
For people in the Mid North Coast, North West Slopes and Plains, Northern Tablelands and parts of the Northern Rivers, Hunter and Central Tablelands Forecast Districts.
Issued at 12:53 pm Saturday, 11 February 2012.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Port Macquarie, Taree, Armidale, Tenterfield, Katoomba, Tamworth, Gunnedah, Moree and Narrabri.Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65156.shtmlLooks to be a decent storm near Port Macquarie, and should be giving Pembrooke a decent show. A couple of storms racing down the tablelands from Armidale and moving towards the Macleay. A weak storm passed through nearby Hat Head early this morning, but no rain fell here.
_________________________
South West Rocks (5m ASL), Mid North Coast:
May Rainfall: 31.6mm (May Avg. 133.6mm)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 765.4mm (Jan-May Avg. 804.0mm)
Year-to-date Raindays: 68 (Jan-May Avg. 67.1 raindays)
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#1074589 - 11/02/2012 13:29
Re: SE QLD & NE NSW Possible storms : 11th - 14th Feb 2012
[Re: MathewTownsend]
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Cloud Gazer
Registered: 3/01/2011
Loc: goonellabah 2480 nsw
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In my observation that NR probably is best to chase today due to great positioning of the trough and severe storms. Looking at the radar I can see its in western parts of NR heading ENE towards the coast now. How it looking down there today? I'm in goonellabah, Was raining and overcast this morning, clear by late morning now there is a line of storm cloud on the range to the west, slowly moving this way. Hope your right Mathew and we do get a bit of storm action.
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