Gday everyone

Thought that it's high time to set up a new thread; the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a low pressure trough will move across Victoria on Thursday/Friday. Warm to hot northerly winds should send temperatures up into the 30s as the trough approaches (32C for Melbourne, 36C and 37C for Mildura, on Thursday and Friday) before milder southwest winds push through.

BSCH shows some instability developing over parts of the State, mainly the east, late this week, through the weekend and possibly into early next week, hopefully some good moisture with the northerly airflow as well, bringing showers (hopefully some decent rainfall) and possibly some summer thunderstorm action... something to watch for!

Best wishes for the week ahead everyone!!


Aussiestormfreak (aka Aussie Tornado/Andrew)

PS I've changed my name to match my name on the Australian Weather Forum

Good work AT! Personally I think once again (and as usual in summer) the NE and E will be the most likely chance for storms, but im just hoping once the heat arrives that it goes pretty quickly, dont know why but ive been sick of the heat this Summer! BSCH have been suprisingly very accurate even 5-7 days out in their calling of storms.

Thanks Ant!

Yeah I agree, the only time I like heat is when there's humidity with showers and thunderstorms, more rain for my area in the Dandenong Ranges, and for Melbourne's catchments would be greatly appreciated... and the Storm Season seems to be failing us since those EPIC Christmas 2011 Supercells, hopefully we get something good (at least throw in a squall line or some multicells this time around)

Not picking on you TheAnt, but for us out this way (Gippsland), theres no way we would describe the summer thusfar as "sick of the heat". I say this because in many years to come this thread may be found and used for historical purposes. We have experience a cooler than normal summer here.

Re this event (well from now to early Sat) - storms are definitely a chance out here in Gippy, but havent looked/formed an opinion on the chances elsewhere in Vic. Good luck all

With regards to the heat, I have always loved summer since I was a kid.
I love a day of 28 to 30 with light winds and then a warm evening, sitting outside
having a drink or BBQ.

I have never liked humidity, or those nights where there is not a breath of wind in sight. Much prefer a dry heat.

What I am finding very hard to deal with this past year is what seems to be instability in the weather patterns. Seems to be predictable that we will have maybe one nice day, lights winds, then strong northerlies and then the storms.
I can't recall in past years storms so close together, seems every few weeks here in Melbourne with deluges of rain.

I know some experts say our weather patterns have not really changed and if you check old records and data some of the events are not that unusual. All I can say is I don't recall here in Melbourne the frequency of storms and heavy rainfall that has done so much damage. Since the storm in March 2010, I have had several friends in different areas of Melb that have been flooded more than once in their homes, roof tiles damaged and cars hit by hail. No sooner fixed the first one when another hits.

I know some people find storms exciting, and I love looking at lightning, but these super cells with hail and heavy rain I am really beginning to hate with a passion.

Katyer I recommend you look at BSCH storm potential charts, its pretty useful as for judging whether or not storms are likely to be severe or not, theres even a new Supercell probability chart, ofcourse its highly experimentil but its worth a look at.

Vic Bom very slow at getting the new forecasts up this afternoon.A snap strike maybe.

Its all of BOM pete.

Thanks Ant. I do check that occasionally, must admit I tend to forget about it. I had a look this afternoon, didn't have time to navigate around too much to find the supercell chart, but I will go back to it later. The amount of people around here now that worry about storms when once upon a time they would not have given it a second thought is interesting. I suppose when you are still waiting for your roof to be fixed and living with tarps over it you would be anxious.

Starting to rain over Thornbury

....and stopped...

Yep spitting some pretty big drops here as well.

Getting it here @ q now some good drops and breeze.

Yep that was a bit of a suprise! But the clouds did look like they could threaten a shower at around 3.

Was supposed to be 31C with a "too stable" atmosphere for storms over the gippy flat lands acc to our local BOM this morning. Lo and behold, a storm brewed to our ENE mid arvo and provided a few rumbles before heading off to Bairnsdale.

What that did was to take the SE seabreeze away from here with it making us hit 34C. A lot of red flushed faces in the clubhouse after our midweek golf day today!!

Whats this line heading over quickly on the radar now? Some sort of trough? No storms waking me early in the morning please

25.4c at 5am in Paky this morning. Love it.

Wind went to the south when I was at the bus stop, love that more. 12z GFS run giving much more of the state a chance for storms on the weekend. Love that even more!

GFS have got to be joking, 15mm for central areas today?

hey TheAnt, I could be wrong here, but I get a feeling that any storm activity may ramp up reasonably quickly.
Sort of like the calm before the storm atm.
I suppose that is what I am hoping for, rather than this being a solid prediction - not going there - have held my head in shame a few times now with my 'predictions' recently.
28c here atm and wish it would ''freshen up' and cool down - feels sticky humid.

I think all this scud up North here is just waiting for some surface heating to really kick off, though with this continual cloud cover I'm not seeing that happening just yet.

It may well do so duck, but 15mm is going for a very isolated total really, its like hmm well there may be a slow moving storm that covers 1 location so they just put the same totals over all the central areas.

Blue sky, light northerly wind and 28 degrees here. Lovely.

I know they are saying a cool change this arvo with the possibility of storms....well lets wait and
see. Honestly does not feel that way to me, but things can change.

Well the trough is basically right over central parts right now, its not the optimal time of the day for it because storms that develop at 11-12 wont have nearly as much energy as those that develop late in the day, then again im not an expert on this.

Also most thunderstorms are forecasted to be short lived today, however some MAY become severe (although unlikely), theres a chance for central areas but imo it's only likely to be in NE/E Vic.

Shame this one is dieing off, not much lightning left in it. It's at a perfect distance too so I could go outside!

I did get a shot of the structure though:



Looks like Wodonga goes through the dead gap.

Overcast and humid in LV, tracker shows lightning on the ranges to our N, but too far up to see from here (LV) yet.

That's my thoughts as well Ant, seems to be some activity over the n/e and Yarrawonga, but nothing developing for us. The satellite pic doesn't look much either. 30 degrees here now, sun out very warm, but doesn't feel as humid to me as it has in the past couple of weeks. Still, I am no expert either, so lets see what happens in a few hours.

You guys can have it now, it's getting too close for me!!

I can see something very slight around Maryborough on the radar.
Sometimes this filters down to us but usually hits Sunbury and more north.
Still the wind factor might push it down and around.

Shame I have to go out and can't watch its progress, if any.

I have to laugh at myself. Scared of storms but love watching them develop and challenging
myself to predict where or when it will hit.

Well now thats some rapid development

Indeed, that storm between Swan Hill and Ivanhoe has just exploded in a matter of 20 minutes!

And the black core near Daylesford.

Yarrawonga radar hasn't updated in around 30 mins or so. Lost power maybe? No storms out that way, though the power did flicker here a bit. That storm out WNW is absolutely insane looking on the lightning tracker! Hope it stays well clear of here!

It is on like Donkey Kong. I checked Maryborough about an hour ago, it was a small dot. It has grown heavily in an hour. Hope it tracks near my area of inner northeast, Ivanhoe East, Viewbank, Eltham. That would really make my day.

anyone checked out the doppler radar. am i seeing things or is something interesting happening in there

This is proof of a forcefield.

Wow the storm in NSW is growing rapidly in s southern direction as it moves easterly. Noticed some sparks starting to fire in Echuca and wouldnt be surpirsed if they all link up to the Ballarat storm and form one massive storm front. I will be keeping a close watch on this.
Already a severe storm warning advice on the radio from a Shepparton station.

Wouldn't be a bit surprised if the forcefield means that it all misses Melbourne to the north.

EDIT:- Just had a look out the window - it's getting pretty dark towards the NW of the CBD so we might get hit after all.

It could, but I wouldn't be too sure

EEEK! Latest Yarrawonga radar update! Hope it dies out a bit before it gets here, waayyyy too intense for me!!

I think its a safe bet that we will be hit and quite well too

Where are you Baboom? There is no location on your profile. There is definitely a good line of storms 75km east of Yarrawonga. Lots of yellow, orange and red. Hope it hold out till it reaches here.

Im in Thornbury, just started to rain now

Great time for BOM radar to go on the fritz. (assuming its not just works internet), rather dark in the CBD

Nah bring it on as it's been a while since we had a decent storm here.It might help to break down the bl**dy force field that's been in operation here for the last 6weeks.

Green clouds and LONG CGs to the west now. No rain - yet

[img:center]http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR493.shtml[/img]
I tried to post an image of the present radar, but this was what I got. I guess my image will change as the radar changes. So I have failed miserably

Geez, just checked th radar again, Its one long storm now. Had a look at the sat and water vapour on BSCH and you can see the cloud structure starting to explode when you animate it. Anyone willing to guess how many km's long it is?

Gabby if you dont get this one then I will declare Yarrawonga as the town with the forcefield.

thunderunder, the extent of the storms is about 600km! This is one HUGE storm line!! How often do storms like that appear? Not too often I hope. How it looks on the radar reminds me of the tornado dropping storms they get in America. I'd love to see a tornado, but not be part of it!

Will be awesome to watch it moving over, then back to blasting my music in bed I bet Hate it hate it hate it! I wanna WATCH the storm

Black core West of Yarrawonga!!

bom's radar seems broken at the moment its jumping from one time to another with no pics in between and no new images

Maybe 400kms? Radar is fine here, Melbourne one is acting up..

jumping from 3:48utc to 4:18utc for me O_o

What kind of size hail could we expect to see in something like this? Sorry for all the questions, been a while since I've lived in Vic and wasn't so into the weather back then!

Nothing severe here just abit of heavy rain and the normal lightning. Wasnt really a good storm looks to be over for here now...

Things, I heard a radio report about 15 mins ago from the Weather Channel advising to put your car under cover, if possible of course. So I figure they are either being very cautious after the Xmas Day deluge, or it is mighty large hail.

BTW...I ask the same sort of questions, still not able to work it out properly for myself.

Hi Things. BoM Warning is for large hail stones. The national radar on WZ is like a neon sign. I don't think any one saw this coming. That line of storms has grown to a line from Vic south coast to almost the NSW, Qld border.

Well I sure got it wrong earlier today thinking nothing was going to eventuate, but I did mention that something was brewing up near Maryborough, just as I was going out.

Managed to get home just before it tumbled down.
Had rolling thunder, and heavy rain for a few minutes, seems to have eased off now.

This radar is not running normally for me. Jumping all over the place.
Seems that most of this storm on the 64 km has passed us headed toward Melbourne.
There is another lot around Daylesford which I am finding hard to follow because the radar literally keeps fading in and out. It seems to be building in intensity, then disappears. very odd indeed.

Depending on the wind Daylesford activity would head north east and miss us, but I can't even be sure there is actually anything there with this radar.

Can actually see the HUGE anvil from this line here already. Waayyy off in the distance, but it's just a giant wall of cloud. Does anyone on the forum live out that way?

turned black here very quickly

its like night time right now

What way is that ??

Look at the 256 images on Yarrawonga radar and you will get a good idea of what is happening. Melbourne radar is not working properly.

thunder now. very loud.. wow did not expect this. was sunny just 5 mins ago

foxtel weather channel has now no signal lol

Thanks Gabby. I have just checked Yarrawonga, and its much better.

I don't have much of a view here, being single level, but looking out the west and north windows we have patches of light blue sky. Radar, although wonky, is indicating that most has passed us for Melbourne. However I am watching that Daylesford activity with interest.

Gabby it looks to be weakening on radar as it gets closer to you o r am i reading it wrong.

good steady rain and rolling thunder here @ q

You are right Pete. That is how it looks on the radar right now.
BoM says about this radar site
"Being a "C Band" radar, if there are large thunderstorms in the area, the radar may not be able to determine accurately the strength of additional storms located behind the closest storms."
So I am hoping that this is the case. I am so storm deprived that even a small rumble with some CC lightning would do me.

well as being a North Queenslander.....it has treated me to my first hail experience....small and only a little bit but still Hail

The clouds seem to be moving fast and have some wind in them!

Feeling quite pleased with little 'ol me atm
I got this one right.
Got some good video of the lightning. Camera stopped a couple of times right when some awesome strikes hit though
Never mind ....off to sift through the video I've got...if any good I'll YouTube it and give ye all the link.

Interesting they have taken a big line off storm warning area. Is this because they expect the storms to die out before getting that far? Kind of strange considering that is the direction they are moving!

By looking at the radar atm, I'd say they need to mention a warning for nearly all the areas. Check out that beautiful long line covering all the way from northern vic to the very south....

i dont understand how the new stw was issued at 447 showing the severe cell offshore from mornington and approaching when at that time it was already well and truly overhead at mornington. surely that is dangerous? especially when the cell that was overhead was brown?

Fun times on the way home, nice flang or two in the West Melbourne area. My rain total looks to have passed double figures and its still raining with occasional rumbles.

btw 8.8 mm here @ q for this show. wonder if we will get a small second show for the cell behind. dvc

can not believe how small this cell started off as and look how big it is now. weather is so awesome when its unpredictable

No warnings from BOM as yet for our area, but I see some activity headed toward Melton or Sunbury, not sure if it is building or dissipating. Think I will take an each way bet on this hitting me.

Green stuff on the radar should be yellow around CBD

Why? 0.2mm in last 15 minutes is hardly ripping it up.

so now the melbourne radar starts working again

Because unless I'm hearing stuff 50kms away it's a cell near here, couldn't be green could it?

Looks like it has turned into a big messy line of rain up here.

Radar is measuring rain not whether there is thunder. I have blue and white over me and I can hear the odd bit of thunder. Convection does look ok to my W or NW, should make GFS look even better.

Well that was a bit of fun!

29.6C today just after 1pm, now down to 20.8C. Sky to the NW looked amazing at school pick up time, and heard the first rumbles around 4pm. Not much rain in it all here (4mm so far), but a strike less than 500m away took me by surprise when the majority of the lightning was in the distance!

Heard the odd rumble coming from west of here. All severe weather seems to have gone, but some good heavy showers will have to do.

Looking pretty intense out towards Warragul way. Rumbles coming from my NW now

Thunder here again, not much in the way of cloud but looks like something is on the way to us from Melton. Seems to be building again near Daylesford.
I wonder if I am right in thinking this could keep going for some times with the
patchy looking areas of activity ???

... and a third popping up from daylesford area again.

Here we go again, belting down !!! and thunder.

For once I got it right reading the radar !!

Looks to me like this Daylesford activity is going to burn itself out somewhat.
Doesn't look like its building to me.

Rain is now easing off here.

Presumably the new cells would struggle as I guess they are operating in a more stable environment behind the first line. Still Katyers cell could take me up to near 20mm.

Bout to get hit by that cell, should pass quickly

Very deep bluish cloud to our W now, just heard the first distant rumble to our NW. 32C here today 27 C now and only 46% RH.

Cells trying to develop but as Ruckle says its more stable atm

Nice steady rain from that one, cannot wait to empty the gauge. Saw on always unreliable ninemsn that someone got stuck in flooding in Footscray, might explain my high total, must have been a "peak" in the initial storms very near me.

Weakened before me, still a couple of rumbles prior to that

light rain started again

Radar never updates when I need it to

Cooled right back to 25C here, radio has plenty of splatts and lighting tracker looks impressive over Traralgon. But the sky to our W says..... nah.

17.1mm emptied out with possibly some light showers to come. Great stuff.

GFS were right after all, guess ill have to agree with whoever was saying it that GFS have indeed been spot on most of the time this season.

Plenty of distant rumbles (moreso to our WSW which make me think we will miss the best of any remnant flangs to our S) - and some long "blinks" of the house lights. Got one of the kids playing BBall atm and the stadium lights take a couple of minutes to recover - that and a propensity to let water down onto the floor in high rainfall (if it happens).

Calm and 23C now and just a general grey looming sky coming in from the W, not looking much despite frequent distant rumbles.

11.4 mm total here cheers dvc

Some nice rain last 5 minutes or so, real chance to keep the garden alive another week or so here! Tank is nearly full from this effort so looking good.

Outside, the rumble rate has tapered off to 1 / min and nothing close, it looks like the storm may hold together enough to give Sale some excitement as it slips away on a decaying trip to our S. Not enough rain to wet the concrete, a couple of visible lighting flashes to our W, not enough to cure SSDS.

YET - lighting tracker and radar still shows us in with a chance with whats left out to the W and NW - not supported by the "looks" of the sky out that way. Hope I get a surprise in 15-30 minutes to remind myself of my weather prediction failabilities

Nice steady rain here

Last lot produced another 1.5mm here so I am 18.6mm for the day - outstanding.

Still mild-warm and foggy/misty looking evening

The lightning to the SW died, to be replaced by a fresh batch to our NNE which drifted off towards Stratford. All evening the lightning has been lazy (only a flash or two per minute), but our concrete is mostly wet, so I'll record it as a (typical) Maffra storm on my records. It looks like the frontal system tore itself in two W of here to leave us stranded between 2 (forgetable) storms. Anyhow, there is still some medium rain to come from our NW if the radar is to believed, so the house should cool and I can listen to rain on the roof for an hour to come I hope.

Very little to report here. Seems it has all gone for us.
Still some around Bendigo but that is moving more north east, not even hitting Sunbury.

Lovely cool air coming in and cooling the house down very nicely.
Garden has had a drink and I doubt the tank is no longer empty.

Same Katyer, just light drizzle here.

Bought Weatherzone Pro today, gotta say being able to overlay isobars and wind on the radar and satellite is pretty damn awesome! Really shows you the effects of colliding winds and what they result in. Highly recommend it for the price!

As for rain, ended up getting zip out of that huge band this afternoon. Picked up 0.6mm in a shower this morning, but that was about it.

Lovely drenching here, with some flash flooding
Garden was starting to look a bit sick before this deluge.
Just put a video up on YouTube showing the cloud build up and some lightning. Even put some great music to it
See link in my signature below.

3mm in total for me!

Happy birthday Gabby (if thats what the cake symbol is all about!).

12 mm total for me here @ q. great for the plants! dvc

Thanks, Petros. The cake symbol is compliments of WZ.

Many happy returns Gabby
I like the cake symbol - helps make it instantly recognisable that it is someones birthday - though can't work out how many candles are on it?
Ahhh..just saw 3 candles (need glasses)....Happy Third Birthday Gabby

Happy birthday Gabby.Lets hope the pressie is a big storm today.

Thanks everyone! You hit the nail on the head, Duckweather - third birthday is just about right as I started counting backwards some time ago and have lost count?? Yes, Pete a super present would be a big storm.

I turned 4 in January. I look so youthful
Mmmmm.......a 4 year old with 3 teenage kids...work that one out
Cheers.

Happy 40th for January DW!!

Thankyou for that Petros
Pssst...add a couple (few) more years and you'd be spot on

Had a quick 0.6mm downpour this morning. Looks like if you manage to get under a cell today, it's gonna be very short lived! They are moving very fast.

East Gippsland is firing atm. I was hoping that it would have cleared by now as I am heading up near Buchan to do some fishing. Just hope the road into where I am going will be ok as Buchan looks like copping it big time shortly.

Give us a toot as you drive through Loo!

A nice period of rain had in Maffra this morning according to my mother, makes up for the trace we got last night.

Happy birthday! Quite steamy outside at 70% RH.

Still only on 0.6mm of rain for the day. I spose the next day to look out for is Sunday with that low, but seems all gone for now. The structure out to my North is stunning though! Would have snapped some pics if I had've taken my camera with me

Nice sunset though! Awesome seeing the tops of clouds lit up bright orange!

Very delighted to come home to find 10mm in the gauge!! - this mornings showers/delivered nicely!

Brings us to 31mm this month, significant because our Feb rain tally is normally near zero, with the odd easterly rain event every 4-6 years that floods us (as is the case for any month here) to give the long term 2"/month average fo thise parts..

Should be some more action out east today. Looking at wind obs, seems the trough is from around Gabby's place to near Petros, certainly some N in the winds east of that line. (nice of the weather to match up with WZ users, lol)Anywhere east of that line is achance of a shower or storm although much more so in the hilly parts as usual. Chance is the key word.

Some hint of a thundery type band from morning tomorrow starting out west working across the state. HAd dreams of a chase a week ago but thanks to work a drive to just north of the ACT that realistically looks the most interesting tomorrow pm is just not on. Should be some decent storms tomorrow out east and if the trough slows down it could get interesting over a wider area.

Yep chance of a storm is in our local forecast today.

Nice sounding for Melbourne although fair cap around 850hpa. Central range activity might be visible a little further west today as well. Also trough will begin to broaden / flatten out ahead of tomorrow.

LOL, well not even a nice cu display on the hills, guess the uppers have warmed a bit as the day went on.

N and NE winds cover more of the state than I thought they might at this time and a few light showers wobbling across. Interesting blob of storms and rain west of Adelaide but it'll either fizzle or make its way to sthern NSW. Some models still like the NE later today for some good storms/precip, ACCR has the heaviest VIC effort along the ranges in the East. If NE winds hold and we got some breaks its sure going to be muggy..

And muggy it is here, 65% RH and 23C, dead calm and overcast, again the BOM has the chance of storms here.

Yest got to 26C, a cloudy day with persistent easterly breeze in the arvo, no storm structured clouds about, although the mountains were heavily clouded late in the afternoon.

Petros I reckon you're a better chance today

Storm just flared just over the SA side of the border. Just out the front looking west and the mid's look unstable. Pity we cant get an hour of sun with the trough still just to our west.

Ruckle the trough is the outer Eastern metro area right about now? Atleast thats what the Sypnoptic is suggesting.

Winds still NE at Essendon and Tulla. Probably diagonally across like it was Thursday. S at 2kts here at home. Ballarat still N, Mt Gellibrand NE as well. Mids do look nice.

Some weak convection towards NW, presumably around the ranges. Then again I could be just looking at the tops of a bit of mid level stuff which continues to look ok.

Some elevated convection to the north above the cap/inversion on the sounding. Could yet be fun to the E and NE of the state later. Not as much fun as NSW that is about to explode, lucky buggers.

Waiting patiently Ruckle.......
Seems to skipping to (top of) the north of melb atm.
Shouldn't really complain I spose....it is a gorgeous day here.
Hope something changes later.

They have had too much fun recently.

There is something on the radar just outside of Pyalong. Otherwise the 128km rdar is empty, sadly empty.

The shield as activated itself and pushed everything towards Canberra, yet again.

No storms day Duck id say.

Another day of expectation and another day of being let down and disappointed that other states are having more fun.

Dunno why you had expectation today. Only ever looked like a chance of good storms over the border and in the east.

Well Thursday was a pretty good day, and compared to Sydney and Adelaide id say Melbourne has had a better storm season.

Oh well....might put the camera away...I'll go wash the car instead........the sun'll dry it off nicely

Or you could look up to the NE. Desperate SDS related shots from local park







Back end of it which we are looking at as it moves ENE is still sending up new pulses, will be interesting to see how far it makes it.

Almost clear skies here over the past hour, bumped temp up to 28C currently (heavily overcast all day up to then). We still have 50%RH, a nice single large and slow moving cell developed on the Strezleckiis S of Traralgon about an hour ago, slow moving, and heading to Sale (but seems to be dieing as it progress eastward going by the radar echos).

clear now sunny and temp is rising to 31c as been overcast all morning but my weather station has now change from clouds to rain so looks like the ranges along Victoria is building storms...

Storms popped up out west around the Grampians.

Re the storm decaying over Sale, we can hear the odd distant muffled rumble from here and heres a photo contender for the "worlds worst example of a storm photo" ever published of it....


To be honest I only posted it because I got a new phone last week (galaxy nexus) and can now join in with the "forgive me, its taken from my phone" elite! ... and see what the "point and shoot outcome actually looks like for potential future posts......

When the forecast has "chance of storms in it" I get excited. If the forecast it, they jinx it.

Melbourne has had a better quality. Sydney has had more and longer storms. Just going by how many time the radar has lit up.

Other than 28 September, Xmas Eve/Day 2011 and 16 February 2012. These are the best ones, then there were just a few rumbles.

You can say that again! Thursday's storms were probably the best I've ever seen in the month of February for any year... some very decent structure as it approached me while I was in the Dandenong area, followed by some relatively infrequent but still amazing lightning (mostly CCs) and heavy rain

Yes I agree, Melbourne has seems to have done a lot better this Storm Season than Sydney and Adelaide, but what Canberra? Does anybody thank Melbourne has done better than the Capital or no?

Wonder how far that storm out west will make it. Surprised to see it there when i looked at the radar just now. GFS only had minor instability out there.

yeah instability still feel too hot here of 27c has not drop yet as still light N/W wind

Other than a nice calm clear evening and a nice sunset, nothing to report from out this way.

Speaking of NSW, sydney airport rain rate last night hit over 160mm per hour for a few minutes to get to their storm total of 52mm! imagine our trains under that one.

STW in VIC atm and a wondrful unstable looking sky to the east and NE this morning on the way to the bus stop. This thread needs another day..

Yes, very unstable looking out there today. Odd considering yesterdays forecast was for possible storms and we got nothing, and today was only chance of a shower and we've got severe storms

Watching the radar it is funny to see the how when the weather clears the Metro boundary it suddenly explodes. Irony?

Storm cells brewing to our N but look to be headed ENE'ly as per the current 500 hPa winds.

Just had a rumble of thunder and are now getting some big spots of rain...here's hoping it'll devlop further

Promising cloud developing over the Strezleckiis S of Traralgon atm, mid level cloud streaming in from the E to W, higher up Cj humilis inching along from W to E (presumably NE) - if one develops there, it could head to Maffra (wishful thinking?).