Gday everyone

Thought that it's high time to set up a new thread; the Bureau of Meteorology indicates that a low pressure trough will move across Victoria on Thursday/Friday. Warm to hot northerly winds should send temperatures up into the 30s as the trough approaches (32C for Melbourne, 36C and 37C for Mildura, on Thursday and Friday) before milder southwest winds push through.

BSCH shows some instability developing over parts of the State, mainly the east, late this week, through the weekend and possibly into early next week, hopefully some good moisture with the northerly airflow as well, bringing showers (hopefully some decent rainfall) and possibly some summer thunderstorm action... something to watch for!

Best wishes for the week ahead everyone!!


Aussiestormfreak (aka Aussie Tornado/Andrew)

PS I've changed my name to match my name on the Australian Weather Forum

Good work AT! Personally I think once again (and as usual in summer) the NE and E will be the most likely chance for storms, but im just hoping once the heat arrives that it goes pretty quickly, dont know why but ive been sick of the heat this Summer! BSCH have been suprisingly very accurate even 5-7 days out in their calling of storms.

Thanks Ant!

Yeah I agree, the only time I like heat is when there's humidity with showers and thunderstorms, more rain for my area in the Dandenong Ranges, and for Melbourne's catchments would be greatly appreciated... and the Storm Season seems to be failing us since those EPIC Christmas 2011 Supercells, hopefully we get something good (at least throw in a squall line or some multicells this time around)

Not picking on you TheAnt, but for us out this way (Gippsland), theres no way we would describe the summer thusfar as "sick of the heat". I say this because in many years to come this thread may be found and used for historical purposes. We have experience a cooler than normal summer here.

Re this event (well from now to early Sat) - storms are definitely a chance out here in Gippy, but havent looked/formed an opinion on the chances elsewhere in Vic. Good luck all

With regards to the heat, I have always loved summer since I was a kid.
I love a day of 28 to 30 with light winds and then a warm evening, sitting outside
having a drink or BBQ.

I have never liked humidity, or those nights where there is not a breath of wind in sight. Much prefer a dry heat.

What I am finding very hard to deal with this past year is what seems to be instability in the weather patterns. Seems to be predictable that we will have maybe one nice day, lights winds, then strong northerlies and then the storms.
I can't recall in past years storms so close together, seems every few weeks here in Melbourne with deluges of rain.

I know some experts say our weather patterns have not really changed and if you check old records and data some of the events are not that unusual. All I can say is I don't recall here in Melbourne the frequency of storms and heavy rainfall that has done so much damage. Since the storm in March 2010, I have had several friends in different areas of Melb that have been flooded more than once in their homes, roof tiles damaged and cars hit by hail. No sooner fixed the first one when another hits.

I know some people find storms exciting, and I love looking at lightning, but these super cells with hail and heavy rain I am really beginning to hate with a passion.

Katyer I recommend you look at BSCH storm potential charts, its pretty useful as for judging whether or not storms are likely to be severe or not, theres even a new Supercell probability chart, ofcourse its highly experimentil but its worth a look at.

Vic Bom very slow at getting the new forecasts up this afternoon.A snap strike maybe.

Its all of BOM pete.

Thanks Ant. I do check that occasionally, must admit I tend to forget about it. I had a look this afternoon, didn't have time to navigate around too much to find the supercell chart, but I will go back to it later. The amount of people around here now that worry about storms when once upon a time they would not have given it a second thought is interesting. I suppose when you are still waiting for your roof to be fixed and living with tarps over it you would be anxious.

Starting to rain over Thornbury

....and stopped...

Yep spitting some pretty big drops here as well.

Getting it here @ q now some good drops and breeze.

Yep that was a bit of a suprise! But the clouds did look like they could threaten a shower at around 3.

Was supposed to be 31C with a "too stable" atmosphere for storms over the gippy flat lands acc to our local BOM this morning. Lo and behold, a storm brewed to our ENE mid arvo and provided a few rumbles before heading off to Bairnsdale.

What that did was to take the SE seabreeze away from here with it making us hit 34C. A lot of red flushed faces in the clubhouse after our midweek golf day today!!

Whats this line heading over quickly on the radar now? Some sort of trough? No storms waking me early in the morning please

25.4c at 5am in Paky this morning. Love it.

Wind went to the south when I was at the bus stop, love that more. 12z GFS run giving much more of the state a chance for storms on the weekend. Love that even more!

GFS have got to be joking, 15mm for central areas today?

hey TheAnt, I could be wrong here, but I get a feeling that any storm activity may ramp up reasonably quickly.
Sort of like the calm before the storm atm.
I suppose that is what I am hoping for, rather than this being a solid prediction - not going there - have held my head in shame a few times now with my 'predictions' recently.
28c here atm and wish it would ''freshen up' and cool down - feels sticky humid.