The next system has keen interest amongst many forecasters, the low pressure trough moving through NSW on Thursday, arriving Friday, will certainly give some great rain falls as the system is likely to stall over SE NSW. Monday the 20th looking very good at present as the trough will deepen. Good storms , fingers crossed.

This looks impressive to me!

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Ah, I like that updated map, wasn't looking as good on the 12z.

Thanks David. Monday would normally be a day that i would try and get off work somehow.....

At this stage there looks to be ample sheer both in terms of speed and low level turn, something that has been lacking of late. Based on the modelling you'd think there will be some organised storms about the place. An upper surge of relatively cooler air will also be present, so plenty of support and deep convection.

Too early to call as to the final target area, but my suspicions are that the usual haunts will be visited by some action. Namely the hunter, right up to the border. Lets hope thing hold and those who missed out this time will get a piece of the action....... i reckon there could be a few phone calls into work for illness

I hear you greg, luckily i dont start work until 10pm over weekend, then free after some sleep.. I will be keen to see the aviation forecasts as the system moves closer.

I'm struggling to get excited about this upcoming trough and storms, looks like winds on the coast will be southerly more often than not during the period, not to mention the weak directional shear that will struggle to push any storms towards the coast. To make matters worse my car is currently being trucked from Perth after my holiday, so not going to be able to get out and about either. Bugger!

The latest GFS has certainly downgraded it for around these parts, with the southerlies on Saturday as you mentioned, and then shear slacking off greatly on Sunday, and then absolutely no turning on Monday at all, with SW'lys blowing and a S'ly change coming up as well. Soundings are also looking very traintracky, so the risk of cloud is pretty high in this system. That being said, I will be in SE QLD from Saturday, so you guys will get smashed

Bloody hell. I just watched the wall o storms approaching over the brindabellas disintigrate! Doesn't look so bad on radar, but to the eye, a storm turned into blue sky. Crap.

still some stuff down south a bit, but surely that NE wind didn't push it back? If this keeps up, I'll go spray weeds.

And, as expected, the confident-sounding forecasts of lots of precip for the next few days has been fizzed down to possible this and areas of that. Temperature forecasts have gone up, too.

Not sure if that storm cell will make it even into Tuggeranong tonight, I guess we can't get storms every night can we?

Teddy

I just turned on the laptop to see why it is absolutely pouring at my place, but I'm looking at all blue sky along the north! Ah, double-yolker yellow cores right over me. They sure are. Driveways all over the road coming in. And thunder, excellent. This is nice! It sounds like Queensland on the roof.

Edit: holy crap! It's turned white outside! Radar says the cores have joined, and are turning orange. And they're right over me, bullseye. WOW.

This is actually pretty brutal, it seems to have camped out, it's not moving, although the rain was pouding the eastern side, now it's attacking the western side. The rain is unbelievable, I'm not used to this. Massive drops, densly falling. My western windows look like being behind a waterfall.

Just had a violent white flash with a "click", and then a defeaning clap of thunder, and when I went to look out the windows, there's drenched rabbits flying in all directions, they seem to be doing laps of the house, scared out of their wits.

I could see all those updrafts over ACT way from my place. Looked quite nice at one stage so hopefully a sign of things to come over the next few days!

Mike.

Oh, and regarding the storm, I got 30mm.

Heard claps of thunder from your cell Ant as I walked up Mt Ainslie. Had no idea where it was so abandoned our walk half way up. Glad someone got something out of it!

If you'd kept going, you'd have been able to see it, I have a good view of Mt Ainslie. It was pretty amazing, and it was so small. I got lucky! 30mm is marvellous, I just hope it didn't all woosh away.

Impressive fall Ant ,Nice!!! I could see that cell from here on the far southwestern horizon.

Not sure what to think about the weekend. Storms appear certain, but nothing gets me at all excited. It looks like a continuation of my average season, where I cant seem to get a chase better than say 6/10. According to gfs Saturday looks gutted with the SE ripping into more local areas,and pushing the instability into places I couldn't be bother driving to. It appears the bureau aren't on board with this scenario with northerly winds forecasted for the Hunter and Sydney coastal waters. If these northerlys appear on gfs, then expect the orange red cape figures to return to those areas closer to Sydney. Instability aside, the shear is well below par, but nevertheless from a good direction( I do like storms moving in from the southwest)and there is just enough throughout the lower half of the atmosphere to push storms along.Upper temps are significantly warmer compared to last weekend, but still very respectable for this time of year, but of course the surface temps will be a couple of degrees warmer this time around. So going off the gfs latest run, i'd pick maybe Lithgow, however if theres northerlies possibily the west Sydney metro will be the go, but with almost 3days to go alot could change still. Sunday, I dont know, but I could see Bredbo picking up something as usual. Monday is a dogs breakfast but some strong speed shear in the Hunter is still interesting despite it being linear.

I decided tonight to let it go through and not try to get photos. My weather knees were strangely quiet, so I get the feeling that there is something bigger probably on monday. I am not going to bust a gut up to mt ainslie. here in gilmore the rainfall was short, it was about 3mins from the east, then nothing at all - blue sky.

I blame the mountains across the road - and the new suburb of tralee for interfering with the rain.

Nice! Being on the edge of that storm we got a miserable 0.4mm, not really enough to keep the veggie garden going now...

Teddy

30mm Ant - well that is "wooshing" stuff for sure

Models seem to be going a bit quiet this morning for sure. Temps looking a bit higher again, sadly nights warming a tad on northerly breezes. Extended GFS though pushed the red line back out of larger settled areas of NSW pretty much the rest of Feb though so maybe no excessive heat.

The models showing a fairly neutral phase over SE NSW - in those circumstances it might go either way - end up wetter OR hotter - next day or two will tell.

The forecast seems to be all over the place doesn't it, the odd conditions seem to play havoc with the models. Yesterday morning was the first really strong sun morning in a while, and I'm sorry to say there was a touch of autumn in the sun.

This morning, everything was drenched, with the sun getting to work on it early. Last night's deluge (we finally got a deluge!) had rolled fist-sized rocks down the hill, the road was a mess, everyone's driveways seem to have re-located themselves.

Our forecast temps are creeping up too, and the precip forecasts more tenuous. I figure with the warming and the moist air, storms will happen, but whether we'll get it or Bredbo/Jerangle hogs it all remains to be seen! The storm last night seemed to come up from south on my range, it was spawned there and then puffed northwards. I could see blue sky west, north and east for the duration.