Hi all,

Havnt posted in a while but just wondering what your expert views of why the Cairns tropics is having such a dry wet season?

Alot of people around here are still expecting it to arrive in a week or so or even early March. Just seems so unusual with La Nina here.

Thoughts?

Meteorologist Allan Beattie said the monsoon that typically hovers over the Far North had yet to make its way south from Papua New Guinea.

"The monsoon has been well and truly north of Cairns. That’s why it’s been so dry," he said.

"It’s certainly not indicative of the wet season."

The monsoon trough hasn't made it south yet??? Wha type of meteorologist is that guy?

The monsoon trough has actually made it nearly as far south as mackay.

The real reason as to the lack of rainfall on the tropical coast is due to the lack of high pressure se trade winds that usually hammer thr coast with moderate to heavy rain for most of the wet season.

Mix the se trades with a nwly monsoon and you get massive convergence areas, this isn't the case this year. The lack of trade winds has made it very dry for you guys, but don't worry come march and April the wet will arrive. The high pressure systems will eventually become strong enough during autumn to bring you guys some normality.

I'm a non-expert, but here's my two cents' worth.

This year, we've had a lot of rain down South, with inland lows and troughs dragging moisture from the tropics and squeezing it out over the Central and Southern inland of Qld, NSW and even as far as Victoria. I remember a couple of weeks ago the Monsoon Trough showed on the surface chart actually intercepted the SA border and almost made it into NSW, apparently dragged down by a significant inland low. I don't remember seeing this happen before. Perhaps rain that you would normally get in the North has been dragged further South this year - an effect of La Nina perhaps?

Anyway, you are welcome to take the rain back. We've had more than enough down here.

Around the ACT region, and further inland, we're wondering where all this La Nina rain is, too. It seems to be camped in the QLD/NSW border zone.

What Trav said and yes we are way down on average for December, January and Februray this year and for us in teh Townsville region the Wet is a just a Slightly Moist.

We are also 7 to 8 cyclones short of the average and that has a large effect on weather all over Australia too.

Well this morning I saw the first signs of the start of Autum, Wet season is just about fried.

Seems La Nina is no match for the law of averages, after so many above average wets your finally getting a below average one. I agree with Steve, you’re welcome to take back the constant rain/cloud at any time.

What were the signs ?

Here in Yeppoon November was extremely dry, December was above average, January was just 2 mm below average and Feb - Well fingers crossed some rain falls before the end of the month.

It's actually kind of odd whats going on at the moment. When I left Cairns, it had indeed been very dry considering Feb is one of the wettest months of the year (Not saying it won't be yet), but in Vic here, this summer has actually been a fair bit wetter and a lot stormier than usual.

Reading up, maybe all the low pressure systems and troughs we've been experiencing down here aren't giving the SE winds up North for those convergence zones? I wouldn't mind the rest of the summer here to be nice and clear, but so far it's looking like storms every weekend because of all the troughs and lows!

Maybe over your side of Vic mate but not on ours! VERY dry out this way but sort of suits farming a little and makes some things easier. I think that to say that this year has been drier/wetter etc. as a general statement is a bit off the mark. IMO it just shows what seasonal variation can do for some parts. Lanina only brings the probablility of rain higher. It still needs the atmosphere to come and play. Bare in mind that there is still a long way to go.

Thinking a bit more about it, I am pretty sure that it is a case of the rain being drawn further south, although not everyone down south has benfited / suffered from this. If you look at a typical surface chart for this summer, you see a belt of high pressure at around 45 deg South, with a vigorous SE-E stream onto the NSW coast, bringing showers, especially to the coast and ranges North from about the Illawarra. These showers don't make it too far inland, but sometimes inland troughs and lows drag moisture down from the tropics into the inland of Southern Qld and NE NSW, giving those areas lots of rain. And often a trough forms off the NE NSW coast, brining more rain to the coast and ranges east of the Divide, especially between about Ballina and Newcastle. Meanwhile up North, there seems to be very little happening. The surface chart shows few or no isobars up there, so the trade winds are weak and there are no / few lows or troughs to trigger very much.

So, it seems (in my inexpert opinion) that the South has appropriated the trade winds and the moisture, hence the rain. As I said above, North Queensland is welcome to have it back.

The answer to the OP is natural climatic variation. La Nina doesn't automatically mean it will be wet everywhere, there is a lot of variation involved. The La Nina this year is fairly weak and not a patch on the mega La Nina we had last summer where there was massive flooding in QLD and VIC.

BTW, just looking at the obs and Cairns was running at around 70mm below average for January and February which is roughly 86% and is hardly what I'd call significantly dry. February so far is running pretty dry at just 169mm so far but it is already more than 5 times the 30.4mm record low Feb rainfall received in 1990.

The models are predicting another 50mm+ for the rest of the month for Cairns but that could easily end up a lot more with just a slight shift of the variables.

Mareeba (50 km west of Cairns)
I've had 70mm for Feb, when the average is 260mm
thats 26% with 9 days to go.
I had to water my avocado trees on the weekend, have not done that since 2003.
Just checked my rainfall for 2006, and its almost identically to 2012 (March and April were sort of wet)

The Wet season is evident Just not along the coast.
some of your central regions have been getting the tropical moisture by the looks of the rainfall chart below and some records broken
We have just witnessed some very hefty tropical infeed streaming inland from the GOC during the last active monsoon period. Many records broken..
Wondering if the next active phase will be just as strong for someone
In 2006 no cyclones crossed the east coast of Australia. ( bom annual climate statement) if l remember correctly
Here is your JAN deciles. wet season is there.


some incredible rainfall totals broken
coolongatta 529mm for example
some monsoonal totals with moisture streaming down from the northern tropics
I think most of the cyclones so far have been in the Indian ocean.

Signs of Autumn.
1) Increase in Victorian Registed Caravans, Winnebagoes or anything travelling at 20kph below posted speed limit.
2) Old farts out numbering bogans in places like 1770, Rockhampton, Emerald, Townsville and Cairns etc
3) Sales boom in Crocks and sun tan lotion.
4) Mobility scooters with Come on the Crows stickers clogging footpaths
5) People asking for directions to somewhere called Safeway
6) Questions about how come we don't sell booze in supermarkets.
7) Advertisments for the Show and Townsville V8's.

There are probably some others about cloud formations, leaves turning colour, drops in temprature and humdity, increases in rainfall, changes in wind strength and direction but I reckon they are all a bit of a myth.

Haha SBT love it!!!!

You could tell mother nature that summer ends in 8days, though i doubt she'll pay much attention.

Rainfall anomalies for the past 12 months (6 month map doesn't look much different).. please point me in the direction to this 'dry' because i certainly don't see it. Not to mention it's still only Feb

Well, we have only had 5mms this month and normally we have over 100 so seems pretty darn dry to me!

In fairness to the comment the Monsoon Trough has made one BRIEF move south and that is it. Most of the actual true monsoon has been well north, even north of Darwin, has also been pretty dry here this wet as well. PNG has been slammed all season. The problem with the comment is that there is a difference between the monsoon trough and the monsoon itself.

TS

the 3 months images are out, and my area has dipped in the below average.

November 2011 was very dry here, December 2011 only slighly above average and January 2012 was near average but Feb 2012 25mm below average.