I think were now in the timeframe that its worth starting a thread for this potential event.

Monday is looking nasty for Northern NSW with the latest GFS run putting Li's to -8 and CAPE over 3,200.

Into Tuesday and Wednesday the action moves North into SE QLD.

Others who are better at reading charts can fill in the details but suffice to say its looking like potentially quite a severe outbreak.

Locke - are you able to link me to an article explainig how Li's / CAPE influence storms - or, explain (if possible).

Thanks!

try this link good explaination... http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/

Here is the WZ outlook for next Monday and Tuesday.

Monday 22:00 EDT
A trough through NSW will generate heavy storms, mainyl about the ranges. A broad trough through inland WA will produce showers and storms. A high should keep southern SA generally dry with brisk southerly winds and beging to clear showers from TAS and VIC.

Tuesday 22:00 EDT
Moisture feeding into a trough in the east will cause rain and storms through NSW and southern QLD. The heaviest rain will develop in southeast QLD ans northeast NSW. A broad trough will produce widespread showers in WA ans the NT. A high pressure ridge will keep the south dry.

(Hope I'm not breaching posting guidelines by putting this up)

glad you did put it up locke. looks interesting, i just hope the darling downs get something this time. it is looking a bit better for us i think.

What's with BSCH? It's be undefined for days. I like that one.

Its only coming up undefined for the full 180 hour period Lani. Run it for 0 to 168 hours and its still working.

Well this is interesting but not part of the topic but i will throw it in anyway.

but from Tomorrow through till past Monday the northern rivers for now has storms forecast so we will see what happens tomorrow.

Anyway here are some charts off BSCH

Monday Lifted index


As we can see the LI's on Monday look high and if they maintain this they will help to produce severe storms with large hailstones

Monday Cape


The cape also if it stays this high will make Monday the best day for the storms

Monday Supercell Potential


On Monday we have a 50 - 60 % chance of supercells developing close to the Coraki / Ballina area this could be good for me haha.

Next we will have Tuesday.

Tuesday Lifted index

We can see today that the LI's start moving into SE QLD as well as in NE NSW there should be widespread storms in many areas

Tuesday Cape

At this stage the cape looks best the more north that you go

Tuesday Supercell Potential

There is a 20 - 40 % chance that supercells could develop in many areas

Next we will have Thursday

Thursday Lifted index

LI's indicate the border / Tweed heads area could see severe storms

Thursday Cape

Again in the Tweed area the cape is the highest

Thursday Supercell Potential

There will only be a slight chance of storms that become severe enough to become supercells but off the tweed coast area.

Looking at 00z Feb 16 run on BSCH for SEQ, of course it comes with a caveat that things can and WILL change in the lead up. I shouldn't even comment on Monday because it really is still too far away.

Friday: Too dry.

Saturday: Big cap, too dry.

Sunday: Deep cap, doubtful of a widespread outbreak, something isolated might popup.

Monday: Looks like there is a bit of a cap in place. Not insurmountable given that it looks like things will stay cloud free for most of the day to get some heating happening. If things fire, it could be a good show.

Tuesday: Looks pretty moist, deep cap. Not a great looking storm profile. I'd be expecting rain and not much more than that.

Wednesday (now we're getting ridiculous): not the worst profile, shear could be better. Inversion could make things borderline.

Thursday (what was I saying before?): Too dry. Westerlies at all levels are not a good thing...

Form your own predictions, don't take mine as gospel. I'm not looking to create storms from charts, in fact I'm quite pessimistic about them given the season so far, the last week being a bit of an exception but I've been watching it from 4,000km away so I can't use the 'vibe'.

I was liiking at the cap for the past few runs also, and it looks like it could be a brick wall in most cases. Even though the CAPE is there, it looks way too moist throughout the profile, so like you said, probably rain and cloud cover to boot.

Forgive us for the corrupted data files that are killing the accumulated precipitation images on BSCH. The script that downloads the data has been in need of an update for a long time but it's been put off and put off.... I'm biting the bullet and doing it tonight regardless of what time I get to bed. Expect 06z to be late (1-2 hours late) but as of 18z tomorrow morning each run should be completely in tact as there'll be layer after layer of error checking for the data files. The runs may take a little longer to come out for a while until I speed up the script but they'll be in tact at least.

Yeah, I've been getting the part runs but I like the full ones. Get some sleep though Ben

Be interesting to see what next week brings anyway!

Great Ben - biggest frustration seeing the black precip screen of death! Amazing work on your part, and much appreciated by all.

Thanks Ben, We are all so good at clicking buttons. Sometimes you forget that some poor sod is writing code in the wee hours so it's easy for us to find what we are after. I hope you aren't so exhausted that you have no energy left for enjoying the show when it arrives. Keep safe mate
Neil

Tuesday looks nasty (EC/GFS) models have aligned pretty much as of this mornings run with the W/E Mid-upper trough strengthening and advancing north. Combined with a new high entering the tasman sending a moisture S/SE change up the coast. Timing looks nice atm. Windshear profile both directional and speed shear wise is fantastic!! well for this part of the world anyways. Im excited... but there is time for models to improve or stuff up the setup so the wait continues. We have a decent defined boundary/trough for once

Great work Ben Certainly is an invaluable resource

I think the emphasis will be in the area north of the Sunshine Coast. The change will reach and extend northwards beyond the Brisbane area.

Nevertheless it is early days, we will all have a better idea on Sunday.

Heavy rain is likely in the areas affected.

Where is Dave, we need the "it's on" or a SD...

Next week does look the goods, haven't seen this low li's in a long time. So hanging for some good sparkies

Well it looks like every run now is increasing the LI's and the cape as well as the supercell chances.

Ballina might have a decent chance in seeing yet another hail storm on Monday as the LI's are at -8! the cape is very high and supercells have a 60-70+% chance of developing in this area.

This area of instability reaches well into SE QLD as well.

Below is the latest CAPE, Lifted Index and Supercell probability charts




Antonio.