I think all this scud up North here is just waiting for some surface heating to really kick off, though with this continual cloud cover I'm not seeing that happening just yet.

It may well do so duck, but 15mm is going for a very isolated total really, its like hmm well there may be a slow moving storm that covers 1 location so they just put the same totals over all the central areas.

Blue sky, light northerly wind and 28 degrees here. Lovely.

I know they are saying a cool change this arvo with the possibility of storms....well lets wait and
see. Honestly does not feel that way to me, but things can change.

Well the trough is basically right over central parts right now, its not the optimal time of the day for it because storms that develop at 11-12 wont have nearly as much energy as those that develop late in the day, then again im not an expert on this.

Also most thunderstorms are forecasted to be short lived today, however some MAY become severe (although unlikely), theres a chance for central areas but imo it's only likely to be in NE/E Vic.

Shame this one is dieing off, not much lightning left in it. It's at a perfect distance too so I could go outside!

I did get a shot of the structure though:



Looks like Wodonga goes through the dead gap.

Overcast and humid in LV, tracker shows lightning on the ranges to our N, but too far up to see from here (LV) yet.

That's my thoughts as well Ant, seems to be some activity over the n/e and Yarrawonga, but nothing developing for us. The satellite pic doesn't look much either. 30 degrees here now, sun out very warm, but doesn't feel as humid to me as it has in the past couple of weeks. Still, I am no expert either, so lets see what happens in a few hours.

You guys can have it now, it's getting too close for me!!

I can see something very slight around Maryborough on the radar.
Sometimes this filters down to us but usually hits Sunbury and more north.
Still the wind factor might push it down and around.

Shame I have to go out and can't watch its progress, if any.

I have to laugh at myself. Scared of storms but love watching them develop and challenging
myself to predict where or when it will hit.

Well now thats some rapid development

Indeed, that storm between Swan Hill and Ivanhoe has just exploded in a matter of 20 minutes!

And the black core near Daylesford.

Yarrawonga radar hasn't updated in around 30 mins or so. Lost power maybe? No storms out that way, though the power did flicker here a bit. That storm out WNW is absolutely insane looking on the lightning tracker! Hope it stays well clear of here!

It is on like Donkey Kong. I checked Maryborough about an hour ago, it was a small dot. It has grown heavily in an hour. Hope it tracks near my area of inner northeast, Ivanhoe East, Viewbank, Eltham. That would really make my day.

anyone checked out the doppler radar. am i seeing things or is something interesting happening in there

This is proof of a forcefield.

Wow the storm in NSW is growing rapidly in s southern direction as it moves easterly. Noticed some sparks starting to fire in Echuca and wouldnt be surpirsed if they all link up to the Ballarat storm and form one massive storm front. I will be keeping a close watch on this.
Already a severe storm warning advice on the radio from a Shepparton station.

Wouldn't be a bit surprised if the forcefield means that it all misses Melbourne to the north.

EDIT:- Just had a look out the window - it's getting pretty dark towards the NW of the CBD so we might get hit after all.

It could, but I wouldn't be too sure