After experiencing a cooler than average start to February in many parts of Vic (southern parts in particular), what do you think our chances are of exceeding 35 deg again? I personally cannot see a prolonged event occurring of heatwave proportions, especially when the days are becoming shorter as we head into late summer/autumn.

I predict it wil be over in 11 days or so.

Hmm, where'd you predict that one Ruckle? Lol, but yeah obviously as Summer ends we probably won't get many more heatwaves, maybe it'll get over 30 a couple of times in March at most, but mostly low 20s.

Thanks for the humorous input there Ruckle. At least we get the extra day of summer being a leap year.
@TheAnt, I do tend to agree.
Certainly minimal chance of cracking 40 deg again, especially with the shortage of heat over northwestern Aus. High pressure systems this summer have been too stubborn over the Bight, rarely stalling over the Tasman.

There has been a major easterly wind dominance as well, so the really hot and dry NW winds have been notably absent for another summer (last summer was similar although with rain of biblical proportions).

The central AUS heat bank is set to rapidly diminish over the next few weeks as sunlight intensity and day length are rapidly diminishing and this will pick up pace as we head towards the equinox. There could still be a 35C in Melbourne, if it happens it is most likely to be the end of this week though. March should see a 30C day or two but most days low to mid 20s.

Agree, though that doesn't mean February and March are bad for storms, remembering February 4th 2011 and March 6th-8th 2010

We won't see anything over 35 ( and probably only one last chance ( next Sunday ? ) of getting close to 35 .

As mentioned , the Highs have sat too far south , but the controlling influence ( as mentioned by coldsnapill ) , the Easterly inflow above the Highs have been too dominant , and this is Forced by Troughs and Broad areas's of Low Pressure dominating the Continent . By the time this pattern is finished ( which I'm tipping ) won't be untill late March . There won't be any ' Heat Bank left in the Interior . A: they are going receive well above average Rainfalls , this will encourage Growth which will limit Soil temp rise . B : we are going to have the equivolent of an Inland Sea direct inline with where we usually receive thos Hot NW'sters from . C : and the Obvious Diminishing Solar Sunpeak hours going forth till Winter Solstice in Early -Mid June .

But Karl , If your looking for Good SURF weather , that we will get . Soon the Southern Ocean Storm track will start to ramp up a little and we'll see higher pressure Gradients (stronger Westerlies under every High ) , so any coast that Faces West will have a cracker start to Autumn .
Note all of the Above will contribute to us seeing Earlier in the Year the Sea Breezes abating and plenty of all day "light" Offshores . The storms and Troughy changes will continue for a while longer so you'll see some excellent conditions in the last day or two , Pre change's coming through . Hopefully I'll find Time to get wet .....cheers

Yes certainly seen my fair share of easterly winds ruining the surf this summer.

The March 2010 storm was quite a cracker, found myself at queen Vic market ducking for cover when the storm hit. Scary experience!

Thanks for your insight Southern Oracle. In comparison to the other followers, I am relatively inexperienced but keen to get a better grasp about meteorology, as it helps me pinpoint surf conditions. Good to know that with the loss of summer we gain better surf prospects and the demise of the seabreeze.

Easterly winds can be a Blessing . ( Depends which coast your on ay ' ) . If it is ruining it , sounds like you may need to organise some ROADTRIPS !!!

Yeah , I'm not the Smartest Meteorological mind , but I reckon I've got Surfing weather covered . And i tend to look at Seasonality as per above , so i can try and put the brakes on work abit if the upcoming month or season looks good .

I hear that storm was a Cracker looked exceptional on the models , but so did somewhere else so I managed to escape it ( was in the Middle of the South Pacific at the time ) . hehheheh

As for surf , Go old school and just study Synoptics flat out . And take mental notes on what map provides good surf where . Then once you've got that nailed , all the model talk in here can be another helper . ( I find that if you can get a model outlook that shows the entireity of the Indian Ocean through to atleast Fiji then your covered . FNMOC is good , click Tropical then Oceania ..... PM me if you don't know of it and i can give you the Link .

Technically, summer doesn't end until we get to the Autumnal Equinox in March, but most of us accept here in Australia the idea of summer running between the beginning of December and the end of February. In my opinion, while there's still intense heat lingering over the Outback, there remains a 50/50 chance of us hitting 35C+ between now and February 29th here in Victoria, just have to wait and see what happens.

Oracle haven't you seen that storm on the radar yet? It was quite amazing.

No TA , haven't seen it . do you have a link . I could probably find it if i had a little time to search back through a few threads .

Probably wasn't Internet where I was ( PACIFIC ) . All i know is that the Models looked INTENSE a week out . And that I'd warned friends a week out that were going camping on that long weekend .

I would imagine that it was similar to this summers Xmas storms but far more widespread .

Its funny how that event changed my mind on what I thought of the AGW debate . Was a signal to the end of the drought that was to come / start a few months later .

Cool and dampish outlook through to next Friday, back to damp Sunday on IMO.

Up late Trying to finish off an extra large serve of " Humble Pie '" .

Re: above post .... by myself " We won't see anything over 35 ( and probably only one last chance ( next Sunday ? ) of getting close to 35 " .....
Sat. = 37 C ........... No Comment ......

Not being silly cause its the 1st march, but I think its done and in to the transition phase now after the system we've just had. Looking ahead, temps are flattening out and the instabilty seems to contracting to the far north of the country. Would love one last traditional summer storm setup, but it doesn't look too likely.

Mother nature answered all questions. I wouldn't have picked three days over 35 degrees in a row.