#1079579 - 22/02/201212:22SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
Hinezy
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/06/2007
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Some of the models have been playing around with the idea of a low cutting off from the upper trough on Friday with GFS and WATL forecasting between 100-150mm mostly on Friday.
A few days ago the models were thinking this could develop around the Warrego somewhere so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty.. but it's still definitely worth watching in my opinion?
GFS seems to have most of the precip just to the north of Brisbane while WATL places the bulk close to the coast near Brisbane.
#1079586 - 22/02/201212:55Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Hinezy]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Been watching this possible event on the models too... In the earlier runs it had the event starting today but with each update they kept on pushing the start date later and later and now pushing most of the precip more coastal and offshore. Will definitely see an increase in showers During later Thursday/Friday/Saturday with a deep E/NE flow particularly near the coast and up towards the sunshine coast region.
Latest GFS now out and continuing the theme - looks marginal from the charts but the precip totals are up there. Very much a coastal event - though beyond this one looking wet again inland and along the coast.
#1079642 - 22/02/201216:22Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Yes, there has been a lot of uncertainty with the positioning and timing of the next upper system. The models have yet to get a grip on it. The recent forecasts are based on a consensus between the extremes. The latest coastal forecasts issued at 3.06pm don't progress the uncertainty. However, there is an indication that coastal winds will at least be at strong wind strength on the Saturday - but this may change. We shall await this afternoon's model runs and see just what the BoM's thinking is. I do note what Hinzey has discovered with GFS having a cut-off upper low hovering over our neck of the woods on Friday. We shall see if EC's thinking is the same soon. In any case, we should at least see some decent shower activity over the next few days if not a rain event.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
#1079686 - 22/02/201218:09Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Well, the 00Z EC run has backed right off this event. Interestingly, it has the upper trough quickly receding off the coast with little or no effect on the weather over SEQ. Now, this is entirely at odds with GFS which has the upper trough as a cut-off low over NE NSW and encroaching into SEQ with a significant effect of the weather of SEQ. The BoM seem to be leaning towards the GFS scenario in its latest forecasts. Has EC lost its touch on this one?
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
#1079721 - 22/02/201220:32Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Inclement Weather]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Access-R just recently updated and pushes a ridge up through SE QLD and therefore now showing Little to no precip for Friday and Saturday similar to EC. Wonder if GFS will follow it's more accurate counterparts in it's next updated run?
#1079723 - 22/02/201220:37Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Squeako da Magnifico.]
Mega
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 3/02/2003
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Squeako da Magnifico.
Access-R just recently updated and pushes a ridge up through SE QLD and therefore now showing Little to no precip for Friday and Saturday similar to EC.
Heavy rainfall during Wednesday evening is expected to lead to some minor and moderate flood levels overnight and during Thursday. River and creek levels are expected to continue rising whilst rainfall continues.
Rainfall totals since 9am Wednesday include 72mm at Eudlo, 77mm at Ewan Maddock Dam and 112mm at Landsborough.
MOOLOOLAH CATCHMENT
Minor flood levels are expected overnight at Mooloolah. Moderate flood levels are expected at Jordan Street during Thursday.
MAROOCHY CATCHMENT
Minor flood levels expected along Paynter Creek at Diddilibah
COOCHIN CREEK
Minor flood levels expected at Old Gympie Road.
STANLEY RIVER
Minor flood levels possible on Thursday at Peachester.
Creek level rises also expected along Obi Obi Creek in the Mary Catchment.
#1079827 - 23/02/201200:59Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: storms95]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Well, the chopping and changing continues... Access-R is back on board for this event but mostly for North of Brisbane and it has this current rain activity to last for most of Today as well... GFS is persisting with the rain event. I remember IW mentioned this in the last Rain event that GFS seems to do better with the mid/upper level systems. This could be the case as well? Awaits for the next model updates...
Wow! The Stanley River peaked at about 6m just from last nights falls (albeit after heavy storms the day before. The Stanley catchment must be completely saturated.
We'd better hope this rain event doesn't deliver significant falls North of Brisbane into the catchment areas.
my room got flooded this morning rain came in sideways threw the window an wet evrything, then from about 7am to 9am it was absalutley bucketing down toreential in this part of the world, not to sure about rain rate but it was solid as, i recon wed be 50mm plus the last few hours just very isolated on the tweec coast tho some of the heaviest rain iv seen here
the latest wind warning suggests a trough of the coast is going to move closer during the next 24 hrs.
PRIORITY Coastal Waters Wind Warning For coastal waters from Yeppoon to Cape Moreton. Issued at 9:35 am EST on Thursday 23 February 2012
Synoptic Situation A trough off the southern coast of Queensland is expected to move closer to the coast during the next 24 hours.
Strong Wind Warning Yeppoon to Cape Moreton S to SE winds 25 to 30 knots between Noosa and Sandy Cape will spread southwards to Cape Moreton and northwards to Yeppoon by late evening. These winds will then continue for at least another 24 hours. Seas will reach 3 metres. SE to E swells will increase to 2.5 to 3 metres.
The next warning will be issued by 4 pm Thursday AEST.
i just had a look through gfs and it looks to me as if it is now forecasting a much weaker through than what it showed yesterday, but also this morning boms forecast suggests that the rain should be clearing during the afternoon, meanwhile a through is moving closer to the coast?
Yeah there's been good steady falls here all morning, haven't checked the gauge yet. Hope it clears by the weekend though. Feeling lucky as I have a day off today, perfect weather for reading.
UPDATED Southeast Coast District Forecast for Thursday
Cloudy with rain areas. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh at times about the coast.
UV Alert from 8:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]
Friday Cloudy, further rain periods, local heavy falls in the afternoon. Saturday Cloudy with rain areas, scattered showers and local thunder, easing to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Sunday Scattered showers.
#1079938 - 23/02/201211:52Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Kallanguroo]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
BoM has just updated its forecast for the SE Coastal District:
Quote:
UPDATED Southeast Coast District Forecast for Thursday Cloudy with rain areas. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh at times about the coast.
UV Alert from 8:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]
Friday Cloudy, further rain periods, local heavy falls in the afternoon. Saturday Cloudy with rain areas, scattered showers and local thunder, easing to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Sunday Scattered showers.
There's that word 'heavy' now included.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
Issued at 10:35 am EST on Thursday 23 February 2012
Warning Summary at issue time
For the latest warning information please check the Bureau's web site www.bom.gov.au/qld
Forecast for Thursday
Cloudy with rain at times, light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh at times about the bayside suburbs. Precis: Rain at times. City: Max 27 Bayside: Max 27 UV Alert from 8:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]
Friday Rain periods. Min 22Max 27 Saturday Showers, possible thunder. Min 22Max 26 Sunday A few showers. Min 22Max 29 Monday Mostly fine, possible shower. Min 22Max 30 Tuesday Mostly fine, possible shower. Min 22Max 30 Wednesday Mostly fine, possible shower. Min 22Max 30
Southeast Coast Forecast
Forecast for Thursday
Cloudy with rain areas. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh at times about the coast.
UV Alert from 8:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme] Friday Cloudy, further rain periods, local heavy falls in the afternoon. Saturday Cloudy with rain areas, scattered showers and local thunder, easing to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Sunday Scattered showers.
that circulation looks pretty good, since bom are forecasting the through to move west, should be expect this surface low to perhaps move onto the coast sometime today as well?
#1079950 - 23/02/201212:22Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Inclement Weather]
Mega
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 3/02/2003
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Must have been an 'off' run by EC yesterday because it's reverted back to a wet pattern mostly during Friday and early Saturday. ACCESS suite and UK still keep the heavier falls further north but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change in today's runs.
ohh i see now that easterly winds arent expecting to be really ramping up through the atmosphere until late tomorrow early saturday, so that means we would have to wait until than before any system whether it be a through or a surface low to move towards the coast?
i just had a look through gfs and it looks to me as if it is now forecasting a much weaker through than what it showed yesterday, but also this morning boms forecast suggests that the rain should be clearing during the afternoon, meanwhile a through is moving closer to the coast?
excuse my ignorance, I'm new to this weather stuff, but what is a "through" ? So many terms and acronyms to learn!
i just had a look through gfs and it looks to me as if it is now forecasting a much weaker through than what it showed yesterday, but also this morning boms forecast suggests that the rain should be clearing during the afternoon, meanwhile a through is moving closer to the coast?
excuse my ignorance, I'm new to this weather stuff, but what is a "through" ? So many terms and acronyms to learn!
Had some heavy rain here since last night. Continuous rain this morning, getting very heavy at times. I guess the big thing is that it is continuous falls.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
#1079962 - 23/02/201213:05Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: dylos]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Originally Posted By: dylos
ohh i see now that easterly winds arent expecting to be really ramping up through the atmosphere until late tomorrow early saturday, so that means we would have to wait until than before any system whether it be a through or a surface low to move towards the coast?
No Dylos, Updated Access-R acknowledges the weak surface low and pushes it east and washes it out this evening or weakens into a surface trough and then the surface trough comes back onto the coast during Friday Afternoon bringing it with it heavy rain during Friday Evening and Saturday. With the main target area being the Sunshine Coast and hinterland.
Light rain here all morning and up to 12.7mm so far today. The main issue is that it isn't going anywhere as there isn't anywhere for it to soak away to. FYI - Telstra have had a big issue today, which knocked out their network and sites hosted on it. Optus has been fine. The rumour is that an "extinct bird" did it.
Rain has eased here at Herston, it is a welcome change to have it overcast and raining today, I'm actually getting work done.
And funny that the internet at my work too went down for some time. Back up now though. Dodododo dodododo who has their finger on the internet OFF button - if such a thing LOL
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
#1079980 - 23/02/201214:50Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: pabloako]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Latest Access-R has ramped up totals for the SE coast - especially for overnight tomorrow into Saturday. 500 hPa winds will be swinging around from the the NE with a cut-off upper low positioning itself over the southern ranges which does add to the mix at the surface level with its long moist easterly fetch.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
Registered: 24/11/2011
Loc: warwick, queensland aust
URGENT MSG - TELSTRA INTERNET AUSTRALIA MOBILE AND LANDBASED IS EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD OUTAGES. We are attempting to fin out more information but telstra lines are jammed including call connection services
Registered: 24/11/2011
Loc: warwick, queensland aust
Telstra Outage Identified - Telstra realese first statement. "A service outage has been identified which may result in intermittent internet access. This is being treated as a matter of high priority. Thank you for your patience." This Statement put out by Telstra 24/7 Facebook Site just 10 minutes ago.
And nothing was listed here? Trololol. I also wanna add that it got bloody chilly after that rain band came through. Guess its just a shock to the system after the last few weeks...
#1079998 - 23/02/201215:47Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: DanubeRS]
Seabreeze
SEQLD / NENSW Moderator
Registered: 18/09/2005
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Please keep discussion on topic. If you wish to discuss the internet outage some people have experienced, then create a new thread in the Lounge regarding this issue.
A severe weather warning for this event has been pre-prepared in case it needs to be issued later today or tomorrow. GFS is the only major model atm which doesn't weaken the midlevel cutoff low like the others.
#1080002 - 23/02/201216:01Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: SupercellsGalore]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Hi great information SupercellsGalore good to know you guys are on top of the situation, 12Z EC still has some pretty decent precip accumulations topping the 100mm+ for this event for Coastal areas and adjacent inland. Still awaiting 00Z models to improve confidence in the forecast. Would love to know what the high res ACCESS C model has outputted for this event.
#1080010 - 23/02/201216:37Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
Hinezy
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/06/2007
Loc: Red Hill SE QLD
Originally Posted By: Scottie A
Would love to know what the high res ACCESS C model has outputted for this event.
Hi Scottie, The High res Access C is really only useful for 24 about hours ahead.. Unfortunately the 00z run won't be out until after 5pm or so and projects from 00z today onwards for about 36 hours ahead. On the latest (12z) run it didn't really show much happening tomorrow morning though.. It will be interesting to see what it thinks will happen past 00z tho'!
Edited by Hinezy (23/02/201216:45) Edit Reason: Full of typos..
Yeah I know that, but today, they issued a forecast for Brisbane at 4.10pm then 5 minutes later, issued the same thing again. They surely don't issue this everyday.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for Heavy Rain For people in the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts. Issued at 4:45 pm on Thursday 23 February 2012 Synoptic Situation: An upper low will develop across southeast Queensland overnight and move slowly westwards during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected to develop about the Southeast Coast, far southern parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and far eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts late Friday and continue through Saturday morning. 24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 150 mm are likely about the coastal ranges, with isolated rainfall totals in excess of 200mm possible. Locations which may be affected include Fraser Island, Gympie, Kingaroy, the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, the Gold Coast, Toowoomba and Warwick. Flood Warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts; see www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings. Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should: * Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters. * Keep clear of creeks and storm drains. * For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
Registered: 14/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
7mm since 9am today here in the donut hole, however, you'd swear it would have been more 10-20mm. It had been raining here for the majority of the day, albeit only lightly, nothing heavy or torrential.
00z GFS is out now, and it's saying that this event is going to be mainly coastal, with the 'bullseye' of 200mm totals NE of Bundaberg (offshore).
#1080047 - 23/02/201219:05Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Lewis]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Things are going in accordance with GFS and this event is unfolding in real time before our eyes. The cold pool has marched relentlessly across Northern NSW and is now stalling just off the coast. The cut-off low will form later over SEQ and start retreating back to the west, and that's when the real action will take place.
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
A severe weather warning has been issued for coastal and adjacent inland areas from around Maryborough to the NSW border. 100 to 150mm of rain is forecast from later on Friday into Saturday and is expected to result in increased river and creek levels within the warning area. Fast rises are expected in the areas of heaviest falls which may locally exceed 200mm.
Catchment areas that may be affected include the Noosa, Mary, Maroochy, Mooloolah, Caboolture, Pine, Logan/Albert, Nerang and Coomera. Individual catchment warnings will be issued if required.
Major flood levels continue downstream at Jordan Street in the Mooloolah catchment and minor flood levels continue along Paynter Creek at Diddillibah.
Am surprised to see this thread so quiet considering the sww and FW. Everyone is sitting back analysing i hope. This caught me by surprise as i wasn't expecting much to happen from this. But since i am so undecided, and unsure, i'll await for something more concrete to come thru. either from the sat pic and radar and of course upper obs. Am at caloundra during this event so hopefully i get see a bit more action compared to the " I have to " brisbanes dismal summer of weather extremes this summer. But knowing this, Brisbane will get creamed Very windy up here " at 25 m ASL. Been rainning non stop since 11am.
The calm before the storm as said before Wait until tomorrow, I am sure there will be people freaking out somewhere along the SEQ Coastal areas. Would just like to put it out there NOT to pass any flooded roads. Use your common sense and just be wary of the weather over the next 24 hours or so. BOM do not throw warnings about willy-nilly, especially hours in advance, unless they are confident it will happen.
That being said, tt will be interesting to see what actually happens. Waking up tomorrow could be fun...
Edited by MG4R (23/02/201221:27)
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
GFS is out and has the upper low developing south of brissy then moving NW, which pulls lots of moisture onto the coast from a north/northeasterly feed, looking very wet indeed. get ya floaties ready everyone
I'm going up to the Goldie tomorrow, and am wanting to avoid any weather-related shenanigans (road closures etc). Going by the SWW/flood warning, those shouldn't be a risk until later in the day (or the next day).
Still haven't gotten my head around this system yet. Keen to see how it unfolds though.
I noticed that NSW has not issued a SWW yet. However, the QLD warning does extend to the NSW border, and as we know, rain doesn't stop at the border... The far north-east corner could potentially get a good drop out of this.
appreciate the info affforded in here , fascinating to watch these events develop in real time.This one in particular. Bring the rain , i wont ever be sick of it.
IDQ20032 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST SEVERE WEATHER WARNING for Heavy Rain For people in the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts. Issued at 10:30 pm on Thursday 23 February 2012
Synoptic Situation: An upper low is currently developing over southeast Queensland, and is expected to move slowly westwards during the next 48 hours. A surface trough off the southern Queensland coast is expected to deepen and move westwards onto the coast late Friday.
Heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding is expected to develop late Friday and continue through Saturday morning in the following forecast districts: - Southeast Coast; - Wide Bay and Burnett east of Hervey Bay to Kingaroy; - far eastern parts of the Darling Downs and Granite Belt
24 hour rainfall totals of 100 to 150 mm are likely about the coast and nearby ranges, with isolated rainfall totals in excess of 200mm possible.
Locations which may be affected include Fraser Island, Gympie, Kingaroy, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Toowoomba and Warwick.
Flood Warnings are current for various rivers and streams in these districts; see www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings. Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
Wind speed of 50km/h recorded at Cape Moreton lighthouse at 11pm. The rain offshore seems to be strengthening and moving ever-so-slightly closer to the coast. Can't wait to see what the rest of the day will bring.
The ULL can now be easily seen on both WV and IR sat loops and has started to move NW as forecast.
Rain already starting to become influenced by it and will continue to do so, the current N-S band will move more NE-SW and then ENE-WSW, and come onto the coast bringing potentially significant rainfall totals to widespread areas.
Keep alert everyone, this has the potential to cause flash flooding very quickly once it begins to come onshore.
Surprisingly quite in here, given that this is all starting to unfold and begin. Some rain starting to come ashore down over the gold coast now. Should only increase as the day goes on..
Hey everyone , This is looking like a very dangerous System ! I believe I am about to have a Massive 24 hrs on my FB site keeping up with Warnings. Here is my Video for this event Last night
24/2/12- HSC Forecast - A BOM Severe weather warning exists , this severe rainfall event is forecast to affect SEQLD and NENSW beginning TODAY through until Sunday. Coastal areas and adjacent inland parts west to the ranges From Bundaburg South to Coffs Harbor - Expect very heavy rainfall 100mm to 200mm , with potentially higher totals to 400mm causing possible flash flooding, Creek and River Flooding. Rain will be moving onshore Friday from the ocean and spreading west reaching Darling Downs early Saturday. Rain areas and Thunderstorms may be moving slowly or become stationary , under these stationary expect enhanced rainfall totals. Please follow HSC, BOM , QPS, QLD ALERT and others for the Latest updates of rainfall, warnings, and road closures. * Be prepared for this * Be aware of this * If its flooded Forget it * Be Vigilant * HSC will be under high load - PLEASE post as much information in comments as possible we will read them and pass them on to relevant authorities. We may be limited to answering Questions once the event begins . Stay Safe - HSC Admins
#1080234 - 24/02/201208:33Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Raweth]
DaveMuzza
Weather Freak
Registered: 13/01/2004
Loc: Brisbane. Love this weather.
The way that ULL is shaping it certainly is going to drench some parts of SE Qld/NE NSW. Those that have a pro account on WZ can see it quite easily when you speed up the WV loop and run it for 12hrs.
Agreed, this event seems to have managed to have snuck up upon us without the over the top alarmism that has unfortunately become a characteristic of WZ in recent times.
Even more suprising given that BOM have been doing a good job getting out warnings early.
Guess is the seagulls must be filling up on popcorn watching the self-destruction of the federal Labor party.
Have no doubt that things will return to "normal" this afternoon and evening as the totals begin to ramp up and we'll be getting the hysterical queries about whether the city will flood and reports of idiots trapped in their cars saying that they weren't "informed".
This is going to be a significant event for SEQld, not a major one, but still significant. So my advice to all is to keep alert, stay safe and don't take unnecessary risks - particularly for those on the Sunshine Coast and north of Brisbane where the highest totals are forecast to fall.
Registered: 2/02/2011
Loc: Darling Heights, Toowoomba, QL...
Originally Posted By: JEFF.H.
Its spreads inland Raweth ... It was always going to So Toowoomba is also in the Warning ...
Wow, ok, thanks Jeff. It's very windy here this morning, clear to S/SW of us, and some patchy cloud blowing in from the N/NE. I simply thought it would blow away with the wind today. Hubby should've mowed last weekend.
Steady rain down here in Coolangatta - should see some good totals during the next 24 hours. Bring it on! Not just the rain but also the Labor Partys self destruction - should be a very interesting 24 hours
#1080258 - 24/02/201209:15Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Dusty Dervish]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Looks like the upper low is starting to wrap nicely.... keep your eyes out to sea on the Sat images a little further East then the current rainfall visible on the radar about the Coast. This is where the main action later on this afternoon/tonight will build up and come from as the upper low moves West/NW pulling it (coastal trough) inland, will most likely be in the form of an MCS.
Edited by Scottie A (24/02/201209:23) Edit Reason: updated
Unsure about this event. But i'll be in the caloundra bureau Has been rainning here since yesterday, had some strong wind. Dark off the coast, but the radar will tell a better story. So will report on events up here for you all
Bring it on! Not just the rain but also the Labor Partys self destruction - should be a very interesting 24 hours
Would suggest all political comments / opinions are expressed in other forums !
Only an unhappy Labor supporter would say that ;-) Just joking, agree, should not be discussed here.
The rain seems to be moving in. I trusted the BOM, I didn't ride my bike to work because I didn't fancy riding home in heavy rain this afternoon. We'll see if my decision was vindicated later!
They probably trying to refer to a Weather Bomb. A weather Bomb happens when atmospheric pressure rapidly falls possibly due to strong upper level forces on the system, and when pressures fall more than 1 millibar/ hour they are sometimes referred to as a bomb.
#1080305 - 24/02/201211:45Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Scottie A]
MathewTownsend
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 28/01/2011
Loc: James Cook University, Townsvi...
Haha rain bomb, that can be like a giant bucket of water pouring over you guys!
_________________________
Bachelor of Science (2012) Majoring in climate change and disaster management James Cook University Townsville TropEco Assistant JCU (Environmental Sustainability program)
Supercell Hunters-Australian most amateur storm chasing
Last night's 12z run of the high resolution (0.125 degrees/16km) version of EC has a bullseye of heavier rainfall coming ashore around the northern Sunshine Coast/Southern Wide Bay area overnight.
Meanwhile ACCESS-C has an area of heavier rain coming ashore in the same area a bit earlier (this arvo).
not more rain..we're already soaked. we've had 175mm since tuesday afternoons storms here at mountain creek (mooloolaba)..another drenching will certainly cause the usual spots to have at least moderate flooding i'd say..
Might also add that EC is also forecasting an area of fairly high precipitable water amounts (>55mm) overnight in that northern Sunshine Coast area overnight.
With the amount of rain predicted in and west of the Sunshine Coast hinterland, does this present a Stanley River flood scenario? Obviously not enough to cause a flood of Somerset/Wivenhoe, but could it see some significant lifts in dam levels you think?
just had a nice squally shower short but sharp looks like more to come, wouldnt take much for a flod on the coast here everythngs so sodden
interesting from coastwalwatch
The ridge extends from a high pressure system that’s set to rapidly build in across the Tasman Sea on Thursday, establishing a broader easterly tradewind flow elongating across the northern Tasman and southern Coral Sea into the end of the week.
The high continues to build over the Tasman Sea during Thursday and Friday; emerging as the dominant influence over our swell window this weekend. Based on a couple of latest model runs, the firming ridge gives rise to a stronger 20 to 25 knot ESE fetch extending about 400 nautical miles off the Queensland coast on Thursday.
This should see a stronger push in ESE windswell into Friday afternoon to a windblown three to four feet across exposed coasts, grading smaller inside the points and bays. The tradewind flow is projected to reach peak swell generating capacity later on Saturday and throughout Sunday; consistently 20 knots and up to 20 to 30 knots across the southern Coral Sea; an extensive fetch elongating over 600 nautical miles across our swell window.
. The following extract is from what I posted early this morning on another thread before I noticed that the current thread had been made...
"Noting Brisbaneradar shows a clockwise circulation. Looped Sat Pix comfirms this,with whast appears to be a middle level circulation to the NW of Brisbane and inland from the Bundaberg area. This circulation appears to have formed on the upper trough that passed through the area last night.
Convergence between the mid level NE and lower level SE to E stream will occur on the eastern and southern sides of this low causing heavy rain particularly in the usual areas mostly affected by orographic effects, namely Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast hinterlands and exposed island and coastal areas. Usually these lows move to the SE and head down the NSW coast and maybe help a surface low develop downstreasm off NSW....."""
With the amount of rain predicted in and west of the Sunshine Coast hinterland, does this present a Stanley River flood scenario? Obviously not enough to cause a flood of Somerset/Wivenhoe, but could it see some significant lifts in dam levels you think?
Rain has to fall on Maleny or west and south of Maleny to finish up in Somerset. East and north of Maleny finishes up in the Mary river
#1080362 - 24/02/201213:53Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: retired weather man]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
Originally Posted By: retired weather man
. The following extract is from what I posted early this morning on another thread before I noticed that the current thread had been made...
"Noting Brisbaneradar shows a clockwise circulation. Looped Sat Pix comfirms this,with whast appears to be a middle level circulation to the NW of Brisbane and inland from the Bundaberg area. This circulation appears to have formed on the upper trough that passed through the area last night.
Convergence between the mid level NE and lower level SE to E stream will occur on the eastern and southern sides of this low causing heavy rain particularly in the usual areas mostly affected by orographic effects, namely Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast hinterlands and exposed island and coastal areas. Usually these lows move to the SE and head down the NSW coast and maybe help a surface low develop downstreasm off NSW....."""
so would this been heavy rain is on its way
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
Rain has to fall on Maleny or west and south of Maleny to finish up in Somerset. East and north of Maleny finishes up in the Mary river[/quote]
That's correct. Maleny is saturated. We have had 160mm since Tuesday afternoon. Rain likely to continue to fall on all sides of Maleny - the normal way of things.
It really does appear that heavy falls will be experienced very soon across SEQ. Seems as though a bit of a mix, with rain developed at the Sunny Coast through to about the boarder but more rain developing out at sea being dragged onto the coastline and eventually inland. Looks as though there will be heavy rain all over the place, firstly starting at the Sunny Coast (continuing here throughout the event) but I would not be surprised to see places between Sunny Coast and Southport experience heavy rain falls.
Looking at the radar right now, there are havy rain periods not too far away. Currently, heavy rain on the Sunny Coast but expected heavy rain (similar to SC) to come for what seems to be the areas between Redcliffe and Logan.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
The low level trough is expected near the coast around midnight with heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms, but rain will gradually get heavier from 4pm, more likely coastal fringe.
Rain is starting to intensify here at Bracken Ridge. Currently 22.9 C and dropping. RH 75% but interestingly the barometer is still at 1018 HPa, we should see that start to drop over the next few hours.
Cape Moreton has registered wind gust up to 85Km/h at 1:56pm. (1356) Double Island Point 83Km/h at 2:07pm (1407) Redcliffe 52 Km/h at 2:13pm (1413)
Hmax wave height at the Brisbane Buoy is reaching the 4.5M mark and rising.
will be interesting to see what happens during the night, reminds me of the june 2005 event where the gold coast got 400mm overnight and everything in the city was shut down
Registered: 31/01/2010
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
Seem as though we are talking about how different colours on a radar loop determine how heavy rain may be; in Wardell, a couple of showers have passed over that were considerably heavy but they were mere light blue.
The rain may appear to be following a NE'ly fetch from the Coral Sea... however, the rain is only on the mid to upper levels as it is wrapping around the east and south of the low over SE QLD. The rain is quite heavy for the level at which it is falling but we have to wait for the surface trough to be dragged ashore and then the real rain will start and the potential could be anywhere, but my guess is for the coastal hinterlands of the Sunshine and Gold Coasts (aka Maleny, Springbrook etc).
Registered: 31/01/2010
Loc: Wardell, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: storms95
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Squid
heavy rain has arrived here
Hi Squid, what's your definition of heavy? I'm getting yellow echo rain here and it's hardly heavy. I would say light-moderate rain.
thats really strange cause ive got yellow over me and its pouring down.
I would believe Clem, with proof being the observations at Beerburrum... 4mm in the past hour to 3pm, and they had yellow floating over them for many frames.
#1080432 - 24/02/201216:44Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: storm seeker]
DanubeRS
Weather Freak
Registered: 28/10/2010
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD
Originally Posted By: storm seeker
Originally Posted By: storms95
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Squid
heavy rain has arrived here
Hi Squid, what's your definition of heavy? I'm getting yellow echo rain here and it's hardly heavy. I would say light-moderate rain.
thats really strange cause ive got yellow over me and its pouring down.
I would believe Clem, with proof being the observations at Beerburrum... 4mm in the past hour to 3pm, and they had yellow floating over them for many frames.
For large scale rain events, i think it is best to look at the Marbug radar for intensities, whilst using the Stapylton for location. I don't know why, but it seems to give a better description (at least in my opinion) of rainfalls across broad areas.
Registered: 24/01/2011
Loc: Elimbah, QLD, Australia
Originally Posted By: storm seeker
Originally Posted By: storms95
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Squid
heavy rain has arrived here
Hi Squid, what's your definition of heavy? I'm getting yellow echo rain here and it's hardly heavy. I would say light-moderate rain.
thats really strange cause ive got yellow over me and its pouring down.
I would believe Clem, with proof being the observations at Beerburrum... 4mm in the past hour to 3pm, and they had yellow floating over them for many frames.
I'm halfway between Caboolture & Beerburrum, and we have had 12mm (3:35pm). Rainfall rate is approximately 5mm per hour based on a quick weigh dry paper - paper in rain for 10 secs - weigh wet paper test.
Sitting here at the Straddy Island ferry terminal waiting for the ferry to dock from Straddy. It's howling and the rain is near horizontal. White caps out on the bay. Looks like the troopy is going to get a good drenching of salt spray on the way over. The truck is being buffetted quite a lot at the mo. It's really picked up in the last 3/4 of an hour.
#1080441 - 24/02/201216:55Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: DanubeRS]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Storm Seeker is correct in saying the rain is definitely falling from the Mid-upper levels at the moment. It's light-moderate intensity similar to yesterday and generally what you get in NW rainbands. Just have to wait til later when the trough crosses the coast and that is when the REAL heavy rain starts from the lower levels with rain rates of 30-40mm+ from similar coloured echoes.
i emptied rain guage out at 10.30 this morning & i've just cracked the 20mm mark..thought it would have been more considering how constant rain has been & some moderate - heavy rain periods..no doubt that figure will rise quickly over night...must say, it's been raining since tuesday arvo's storms (have had 175mm until 10.30 this morning from that), and everywhere is saturated. anymore heavy rain will start to cause some problems with flooding
For large scale rain events, i think it is best to look at the Marbug radar for intensities, whilst using the Stapylton for location. I don't know why, but it seems to give a better description (at least in my opinion) of rainfalls across broad areas.
What sort of area size are we talking about with each pixel? My deduction is its larger than a city block. A single colour per pixel does not necessarily imply an even rain distribution in the area depicted by the pixel, ergo, variations in intensity are possible.
_________________________
I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.
FYI this arvo's Brisbane Airport briefing for air and ground crews from the Bureau:
A UPPER LOW TO THE WEST IS INTENSIFYING A RAINBAND OVER SE QUEENSLAND. ADDED TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN WITH INCREASING RAINFALL NEAR 15Z. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AND EASE WITH DECREASING INTENSITY OF RAIN. RAIN PERIODS HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY THEN EASE INTO SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL: THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF THUNDER OCCURING WITHIN 20NM (nautical miles) OF BRISBANE MAINLY BETWEEN FROM 241200/242400Z (i.e. between 10pm tonight and 10am tomorrow morning).
ASCAT satellite wind analysis from the pass at 2:11pm showing the strong SE'lies offshore:
Realtime CAPE analysis (as at noon) generated by data from multiple sources (surface, soundings, aircraft, satellite soundings, etc) which shows only modest values (so far):
3pm - HEADS UP Sunshine Coast to Gold Coast -HSC now observes a Hot spot of very intense rainfall over Caloundra, Maroochydore, caboolture, Landsborough areas. Flash Flooding Likely. This is spreading SOUTH and WEST . Please report local rainfall and Any Flash Flooding to HSC to pass onto authorities. HSC observes very intense thunderstorms EAST of Tewantin to Gold Coast, these Storms are producing very heavy rainfall and Lightning which indicates increasing intensity. These are expected to move WEST and impact land areas over the next few hrs. Flash Flooding is Likely, Falls of 100 to 200mm likely over the next 24hrs. If under a stationary thunderstorms similar to the one on the map shown , higher rainfall totals exceeding 200mm are possible. Roads will become hazardous , do not drive into flood waters , acknowledge past flood problem areas and prepare, be aware. * Note the cell off Tewantin is a VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM , This TS has been stationary for 3 hrs likely totals exceeding 300mm in 3 hrs under this cell. We do NOT want to see this move west or develop over land * - Jeff
That cell offshore from the Sunshine Coast has a high Chance of Moving West and Tailing Very Heavy Rainfall off to the South West as the surface trough deepens and the upper Low continues to move west Turning mid to upper level winds further onshore.
Rain here for the last couple of hours and just approaching 13mm so far. Nothing major yet, however with the ground so saturated, it doesn't really have anywhere to soak to. The cane toads on my lawn have learnt to swim over the last couple of weeks!
Hi Squid, what's your definition of heavy? I'm getting yellow echo rain here and it's hardly heavy. I would say light-moderate rain.
thats really strange cause ive got yellow over me and its pouring down.
I would believe Clem, with proof being the observations at Beerburrum... 4mm in the past hour to 3pm, and they had yellow floating over them for many frames.
Clem, Storm seeker, your observation about the radar presently overestimating the intensity of the rainfall is in my opinion well made. Indeed, I was quite taken back when I looked at the totals in the Caboolture area from 3 to 4 pm. As Jeff notes in his above post, that looks pretty heavy rainfall but the biggest total I can find is 7mm in the hour at Morayfield and Wamuran. I am amazed. I really am.
I am sure that the Mt Stappy radar hasn't suddenly overcooked everything (like the Namoi one)as there is none of the spurious white echoes in the background. It looks like a normal Mount Stappy signature but those rates are less than half of what I would have expected. Very interesting. I'd love an explanation for it...Is it about drop size?...Is it, as some have suggested, about the level from which the rain is falling? Feel free to inform me all...
High based rainfall tends over read yes so slightly over reading rainfall streaming in from the NE over land ATM, however there are also reports of radar under estimating in other places around Brisbane ... no doubt from low level intense rainfall. Mixed bag re radar rates , PS not liking the look of the rotation on the offshore cell its about to get a shunt towards the west as shear increases
To add : in these events with stationary cells I keep a close eye on lightning activity , research and previous Observations prove high intensity rainfall when CG active
Registered: 27/01/2012
Loc: Delaney's Creek, Queensland
Hi. Am new to post but been observing for a while. I'm in Delaney's Creek near Woodford and we are up to 12mm, the first 6mm over the whole day and the second 6mm in the last hour so definately getting heavier.
15mm since 9:00am here at Wakerley. Intensity has been light with short periods of moderate rain for the last hour or so. The radar's rainfall since 9am page has Wakerley in a 15-20mm contour colour so it seems to be calculating that ok. But I must admit, looking at green on the radar moving over the area, I was thinking why hasn't it been raining more intensely.
Registered: 24/01/2011
Loc: Elimbah, QLD, Australia
Originally Posted By: buster
I am sure that the Mt Stappy radar hasn't suddenly overcooked everything (like the Namoi one)as there is none of the spurious white echoes in the background. It looks like a normal Mount Stappy signature but those rates are less than half of what I would have expected. Very interesting. I'd love an explanation for it...Is it about drop size?...Is it, as some have suggested, about the level from which the rain is falling? Feel free to inform me all...
The rainfall total calculation seems to be working ok, but the rainfall intensity scale is only marked in Low / Moderate / Heavy. Maybe the radar is primarily indicating the raindrop size / intensity, rather than showing the rainfall rate (in mm per hour)?
3pm - HEADS UP Sunshine Coast to Gold Coast -HSC now observes a Hot spot of very intense rainfall over Caloundra, Maroochydore, caboolture, Landsborough areas. Flash Flooding Likely. This is spreading SOUTH and WEST . Please report local rainfall and Any Flash Flooding to HSC to pass onto authorities. HSC observes very intense thunderstorms EAST of Tewantin to Gold Coast, these Storms are producing very heavy rainfall and Lightning which indicates increasing intensity. These are expected to move WEST and impact land areas over the next few hrs. Flash Flooding is Likely, Falls of 100 to 200mm likely over the next 24hrs. If under a stationary thunderstorms similar to the one on the map shown , higher rainfall totals exceeding 200mm are possible. Roads will become hazardous , do not drive into flood waters , acknowledge past flood problem areas and prepare, be aware. * Note the cell off Tewantin is a VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM , This TS has been stationary for 3 hrs likely totals exceeding 300mm in 3 hrs under this cell. We do NOT want to see this move west or develop over land * - Jeff
Sitting here at the Straddy Island ferry terminal waiting for the ferry to dock from Straddy. It's howling and the rain is near horizontal. White caps out on the bay. Looks like the troopy is going to get a good drenching of salt spray on the way over. The truck is being buffetted quite a lot at the mo. It's really picked up in the last 3/4 of an hour.
Thats going to be one hell of crossing. Decent chop out on the bay. I did one trip on the barge and half the people were sea sick. Hope it goes well for you.
Rain fairly moderate here at Bracken Ridge. Registered 13mm so far since 9:00am
Cape Moreton has registered wind gusts of 91km/h at 1424 Brisbane Airport 48km/h at 1712
Pretty obvious statement here but its going to be a wet and windy night.
I'm here at caloundra about 500 m back from ocean. It has now dissappeared ( the ocean ) and the wind is increasing to howling gusts. Its a shame there are no bom rain gauges in caloundra as it hasn't stopped since yesterday. the rain now is the heaviest it has been. Can hear some gusts make that howling sound thru the powerlines. Will update
VERY CLOSELY monitoring the Rotating TS east of Tewantin , if it moves one more inch west or south west I expect a VDS warning from BOM
Dropping out the lightning obs you can see that pretty well on WZ storm tracker. Pity it outside the doppler range. Be interesting to see the wind gusts it creates from within.
VERY CLOSELY monitoring the Rotating TS east of Tewantin , if it moves one more inch west or south west I expect a VDS warning from BOM
Dropping out the lightning obs you can see that pretty well on WZ storm tracker. Pity it outside the doppler range. Be interesting to see the wind gusts it creates from within.
It looks like it is going smack right into Coolum Beach.
Weather is still deteriorating up here at caloundra. Starting to remind of what it looks like when a cat 1 cyclone is just off the coast ( as i have seen a few ). Palm trees now constantly bending with branches continuously to one side. Rain comming in sheets with strong gusts. Traditionally these things get worse at night, or bombs. But we will see how this pans out. Not too excited at the moment as it takes a bit more than this.
Registered: 24/01/2011
Loc: Elimbah, QLD, Australia
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
I'm here at caloundra about 500 m back from ocean. It has now dissappeared ( the ocean ) and the wind is increasing to howling gusts. Its a shame there are no bom rain gauges in caloundra as it hasn't stopped since yesterday. the rain now is the heaviest it has been. Can hear some gusts make that howling sound thru the powerlines. Will update
Ahh, but there is actually BoM rain gauges at Caloundra (Sugarbag Rd, Caloundra Airport, and Golden beach)
I'm about 5km North of Tewantin and the thunder has been constant for about 40 mins. This is currently heading south from me towards Coolum / Maroochydore. Quite windy, a very light drizzle and blue skies to the North of me. Only 5.5mm of rain here today but the ground is absolutely saturated.
had heavy rain most of the arvo wind at times is quite strong.. any time the rain has started getting heavier ive noticed that it has gotton alot darker before hand.
can someone explain why my rain guage would have only caught 10mm of rain in past 5 hours when we've had constant heavy rain? would the fact it's coming down sideways with the wind have much affect on it catching in guage? cause i swear we've had more than 10mm in that time frame
Am now ensconced at Point Lookout on Stradbroke island. Absolutely hammering down at the mo with no let up in sight. Went out to North Gorge to check out the wave action and got soaked to the bone even with a goretex jacket on. Well my pants did.
you were right jeff, it has been stationary for ages!
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND for FLASH FLOODING
For people in parts of the Brisbane CITY, MORETON BAY and SUNSHINE COAST Council Areas.
Issued at 6:22 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 06:20 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on radar off Sunshine Coast. These thunderstorms are moving towards the west. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect Maroochydore, Caloundra and the area south of Noosa Heads and Coolum Beach by 7:20 pm.
Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.
A Severe Weather Warning remains current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and the Darling Downs and Granite Belt Districts.
Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should: * Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters. * Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees. * Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm. * Beware of fallen trees and powerlines. * For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
Wind has rotated and is now coming at me again from Sth/East. Very windy and constant rain. Checked the radar and a decent cell is now heading my way. Thunder has gone though. Too wet to try and measure wind gusts
Past 30 minutes the rain has increased here in the Northern Suburbs of Brissy. Temp has dropped considerably. Will be interesting if it intensitfies more overnight.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
Yup beginning to pickup here with increasing wind and rain. Creeks already full and standing water around. I am quite sure that if it comes ashore there will be flooding.
Double Island Point scored a 102km/h gust at 6pm. The Sunshine Coast usually deals quite well with extremely intense rainfall, in saying that, if it persists too long I would still expect some reports of flooded homes.
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland..... Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.6mm (Last hour 0.0mm - 0.3mm Last 24 hour 0.3mm, Last week 0.3mm, last Month 15.9mm.
#1080531 - 24/02/201219:50Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: SC Boy]
OzCyChaser Trav
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
For weather events if I ever move to se qld which I may in the next few years, I'm definatly moving to between maroochydore and cabby! They always get hammered!
For weather events if I ever move to se qld which I may in the next few years, I'm definatly moving to between maroochydore and cabby! They always get hammered!
Chasing TC's is a pain in the butt in SE QLD Trav. You can't just hop in your car mate.
Any chance the rain will shift to the south, or is it expected to remain mostly over the Sunshine Coast/Brisbane area?
We only had 14mm today and there are puddles everywhere - on the roads, in the canefields... it usually takes a lot more than 14mil. to get surface water like that, but then it has been an exceptional season.
Gosh, Noosa and Tewantin are about to cop it... don't like the look of that cell.
I tell you what, the weather here is getting worse with wind and rain... the Sunny Coast must be coping it 10x worse and I can only imagine what that would be like.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
thanks jeff...wasn't sure if we needed to do a mad dash outside in the torrential rain and secure things better...thanks for early heads up on the storm too...gave us time to get stuff prepared.
#1080547 - 24/02/201220:20Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: sharjay]
Mathew
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's just if it's happen or not I mean.
Any things is possible for the SE of Queensland I mean.
That what I am thinking about any way.
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland..... Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.6mm (Last hour 0.0mm - 0.3mm Last 24 hour 0.3mm, Last week 0.3mm, last Month 15.9mm.
For people in parts of the SUNSHINE COAST Council Area. Issued at 7:18 pm Friday, 24 February 2012. The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 07:15 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on radar off Sunshine Coast. These thunderstorms are moving towards the west. Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect Maroochydore, Noosa Heads and the area north and west of Noosa Heads and Caloundra. Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely. A Severe Weather Warning remains current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and the Darling Downs and Granite Belt Districts.
#1080552 - 24/02/201220:29Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: OIC_Napster]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
seems i need to clear something up when i said that the rain was heavy it was for about 2 mins then is eased off to moderate i had to dash out the door so could not come back to say it had eased off sorry if anyone got trhe wrong end of the stick here
back to the event that i have had 30mm so far from
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
Double Island point has now passed the 100km/h gust with 102Km/h @ 1800. Now up to 25mm of rain since 9:00 am at Bracken ridge ( most of that has fallen after 3:00pm {1500}) and quickly rising with squally rain.
Any things is possible for the SE of Queensland I mean.
That what I am thinking about any way.
Wouldn't of thought we would expect any tornadoes from this kind of set-up, need a supercell for that usually mate. Possibly a a couple of funnels/waterspouts though? Could be wrong though..
#1080558 - 24/02/201220:38Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: JEFF.H.]
Mathew
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
as I said before it's is just a idea if it's happen or not this weather can change very fast you just don't know I am only just talking about it's is only a samll chance that what I think any way.
Edited by Mathew (24/02/201220:39)
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland..... Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.6mm (Last hour 0.0mm - 0.3mm Last 24 hour 0.3mm, Last week 0.3mm, last Month 15.9mm.
#1080559 - 24/02/201220:40Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: StevefromSurfers]
Mathew
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 11/01/2006
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
That what I am thinking about any way if it's happen or not.
_________________________
Winter rock in North Queensland..... Yearly Total Rainfalls Total 2011-2012> 957.6mm (Last hour 0.0mm - 0.3mm Last 24 hour 0.3mm, Last week 0.3mm, last Month 15.9mm.
Weather quite intense here now. Bucketing down, plenty CC's and good gusting. Backyard has rain up to patio tiles. Don't really need any more severe rain.
Registered: 21/08/2007
Loc: Mountain Creek, Sunshine Coast
Hi all, our house in Mountain creek is 20 metres from the creek. Ground is so saturated and rain going horizontal at the moment so true reading hard to get Shayjay. Just emptied mine so will keep a close eye on it tonight! Will check later. constant thunder and rain for past hour but so far winds not so bad. STAY SAFE EVERYONE.
Hi all, our house in Mountain creek is 20 metres from the creek. Ground is so saturated and rain going horizontal at the moment so true reading hard to get Shayjay. Just emptied mine so will keep a close eye on it tonight! Will check later. constant thunder and rain for past hour but so far winds not so bad. STAY SAFE EVERYONE.
thanks nicky35...we're at glenfields and have the creek at end of our street so expecting it to break the banks again..has done so twice in past 12 months and flooded over into the kiddies park at bit. that storm seems to be taking forever to hit..have heard distant rumbles for about 2 hours now but still not close yet. few gusts here & there but nothing overly bad..looks like we're in for a wet night
Strong Wind Warning Yeppoon to Double Island Point SE winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas to 3 metres. SE swell to 2 to 3 metres in open waters. Winds are expected to ease below 26 knots by late evening.
Strong Wind Warning Double Island Point to Point Danger [including Moreton Bay] Expect S to SE winds 25 to 30 knots. Winds will reach 25 to 33 knots between Double Island point and Cape Moreton. These conditions will ease during Saturday morning. Seas will reach to 3 to 3.5 metres. SE to E swell will increase to 2.0 to 2.5 metres.
------
Winds have been consistently over 30knots at Moreton and double island point for half the day now...I don't understand why this warning has remained so conservative? and none of the SWW even mention wind
Strong Wind Warning Yeppoon to Double Island Point SE winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas to 3 metres. SE swell to 2 to 3 metres in open waters. Winds are expected to ease below 26 knots by late evening.
Strong Wind Warning Double Island Point to Point Danger [including Moreton Bay] Expect S to SE winds 25 to 30 knots. Winds will reach 25 to 33 knots between Double Island point and Cape Moreton. These conditions will ease during Saturday morning. Seas will reach to 3 to 3.5 metres. SE to E swell will increase to 2.0 to 2.5 metres.
------
Winds have been consistently over 30knots at Moreton and double island point for half the day now...I don't understand why this warning has remained so conservative? and none of the SWW even mention wind
Cape Moreton and Double Island Point are elevated: Both at about 100m high. So they overestimate the surface winds. What may seem conservatism is actually not.
Squid, these comments need a Like or +1 button - love it! Had the pleasure of driving from Bridgeman Downs to Warner and back at 7pm. Bucketing it down the whole time and still going here.
#1080591 - 24/02/201221:22Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Leanda]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND for FLASH FLOODING For people in parts of the GYMPIE and SUNSHINE COAST Council Areas.
Issued at 8:17 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 8:20 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Noosa Heads and the area north of Noosa Heads. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect Maroochydore, Caloundra and the area northwest of Noosa Heads by 8:50 pm and the area southwest of Caloundra, waters off Caloundra and the area west of Noosa Heads by 9:20 pm.
Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
Fairly frequent lightning/thunder to the NE of here (Maleny tonight) and has been for the last 1.5hrs. Getting closer now than it has been all evening thou as the cell drifts closer. Noosa up to 96mm. Areas from Noosa and south likely to start picking up some decent totals over the next few hours.
Well here at Doonan have had very heavy rain on/off for last hour. Lots of lightening and thunder but at present several km away and not over us. As mentioned earlier ground around here already saturated therefore everything that falls will all be run off. Doonan creek was already flowing well on the way home.
Well here at Doonan have had very heavy rain on/off for last hour. Lots of lightening and thunder but at present several km away and not over us. As mentioned earlier ground around here already saturated therefore everything that falls will all be run off. Doonan creek was already flowing well on the way home.
Going by recent readings i'd expect doonan creek @ doonan to be at minor flood levels within 6 hours.
Well here at Doonan have had very heavy rain on/off for last hour. Lots of lightening and thunder but at present several km away and not over us. As mentioned earlier ground around here already saturated therefore everything that falls will all be run off. Doonan creek was already flowing well on the way home.
Going by recent readings i'd expect doonan creek @ doonan to be at minor flood levels within 6 hours.
I would be pretty sure that Noosa-Eumundi road will be closed by morning if this keeps up
Has been absolutely tipping down in Noosa for about three hours now. Constantly heavy, has not let up at all. Very gusty, lot's of thunder lightening. In fact I think the cell was right over my house at one point. Massive amount of rain, but I don't have a rain gauge (weatherzone forum fail). Based on swimming pool level, I am getting very technical now, I would say about 90 mm. I wish it was day light so I could take pics. Something is definitely going to be flooded by morning. Stay safe everyone.
Its hard not to see some areas getting rainfall totals in excess of 200mm by morning. This onto an area which will generate 100% run off and I guarantee we will see some waterways hit major flood level by morning with most reaching at least Minor.
Dam I posted before I saw the 150mm at Noosa Heads. Maybe over 300mm for some areas.
from the latest SWW 150mm of rainfall has been recorded at Noosa Heads in the 2 hours to 8:40pm AEST.
that's a crap load of rain...and it's heading my way..slowly...hubby is about to take off for work in an hour's time delivery papers to newsagents around the coast..hee hee guess he's gonna get saturated.
I would believe that stormy_bec, seems my pool estimation was a bit off..... I reckon we have had another 30 since my last post 10 mins ago. I have only ever seen rain like this once before, for so long anyway. Stone the flaming crows!
Sure Sharjay. Absolutely bucketing down, has been since my last post a couple of hours ago, wind is a llittle bit gusty but not too bad. We don't have a rain gauge but hubby is about to go brave it and let water out of the pool for the second time in a couple of hours. No thunder for a while or lightning. Maybe the rain on the roof is drowning it out
Sure Sharjay. Absolutely bucketing down, has been since my last post a couple of hours ago, wind is a llittle bit gusty but not too bad. We don't have a rain gauge but hubby is about to go brave it and let water out of the pool for the second time in a couple of hours. No thunder for a while or lightning. Maybe the rain on the roof is drowning it out
thanks beach biz..looks like it's our turn now. stay safe
Transmitters serving the area between Tewantin and Caloundra are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.
100mm in the one hour on the last STW. Pretty sobering seeing the use of the signal, last time I heard it was when there was a strong tropical system coming onto the coast back in 06 I think it was. Scary stuff!
Rain has picked up further as that area around Noosa Heads has moved inland to us. I remember when Noosa Heads got 250mm in around 8 hours. There was a land slip up to the park and Hastings St flooded. I would expect flooding on Hastings St now, not sure if the restaurants would be doing too much business tonight.
The SEWS is a distinctive audio signal that has been adopted to alert the community to the broadcast of an urgent safety message relating to a major emergency/disaster.
It is meant to attract listeners' attention to the fact that they should take notice of the emergency message.
#1080635 - 24/02/201222:15Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: !SCHUMMY!]
OzCyChaser Trav
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
Yeah guys a very dangerous situation unfolding through there, i would say the usual places that have flash flooding in Noosa are well underwater, given that this event is turning out to be very significant. I hope no one tries to be heroes and gets caught crossing flooded roads tonight.
Looks like you guys may have another 1-2 hours of very heavy rainfall before it eases, we could possibly see another 100mm over the next hour....
stay safe everyone. Thank god noosa drains quite well.
Had to turn the computer off for a while....that lightning was way too close for my liking. Rain is not giving up...Been very gusty and bucketing down real solid for a good couple of hours. Lightning has wained but unsure about the latest warning and what's in store with that. I'm tipping some damge by morning.
#1080639 - 24/02/201222:18Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Rejenerate]
OzCyChaser Trav
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
Originally Posted By: Rejenerate
Originally Posted By: OzCyChaser Trav
Wow noosa again gets smashed, 150mm of rain in two hours is insane.
Smashed is an understatement at present, this is just unbelievable.
Hows your yard holding up mate, the surface water must be crazy? i know that if we get 50mm in a hour up here in townsville the streets go under, as well as our yards, so i couldnt imagine what its like for you at the moment.
only ever heard/seen it once in my life...was when i was a kid in toowoomba...can't even remember what the event was as i was only about 6 years old but still remember that awful siren on tv that scared the crap out of me and my mother panicking
so as there is not a big panick..is the main threat of all this the rainfall? is that why BOM have issued this latest warning. or should we expect wind gusts etc? lightning/thunder starting to kick off here now again
#1080648 - 24/02/201222:24Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: SC Boy]
Ms Milo
Weather Freak
Registered: 17/03/2010
Loc: Currumbin Beach Qld
[quote=SC Boy]197mm since 9am. I would bet that Hastings street will go under again tonight[/quote
Was out clubbing in Noosa 10 years ago and Hastings St went under. Was trying to do a sly club exit with a "friend" and the damn news camera's were outside.
Here's hoping we get some storm action in Currumbin later this evening
Wow noosa again gets smashed, 150mm of rain in two hours is insane.
Smashed is an understatement at present, this is just unbelievable.
Hows your yard holding up mate, the surface water must be crazy? i know that if we get 50mm in a hour up here in townsville the streets go under, as well as our yards, so i couldnt imagine what its like for you at the moment.
OK so far. Most of our block is sand thank goodness so the water drains. Although just heard from a friend in Mt Coolum who now has water through her house. I am sure we will see a lot of damage by morning. & right as I am typing this it is slowing up. No, retract that.
Some of our drains pipes are starting to bubble up/out, rather than water running into them, water comes out of them ... rain is falling too fast here ... emptied rain gauge a few minutes ago ... I think we must have had 2 inches in 2 hours ... thunder and lightning awakening again here too ... Will check the gauge again once rain slows a bit ... will have to soon I hope ...
I'm not impressed with the media response... Last COurier update (only a minor headline) was over 2 hours ago....
Also watching Sky news and local tv channels and nothing... no mention.
_________________________
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....
Just took another wonder around the house to check all drainage working but only just. Massive amounts of water everywhere. Glad we had lots of drainage dug. Gauge had another 25mm in after 20 mins. Came in as thunder picking up again.
#1080674 - 24/02/201222:48Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: mickyd]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
from the updated SWW At 9:45pm AEST, the heaviest rainfall was located on radar about the Sunshine Coast. This rain is associated with thunderstorms and a separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning is current. 220mm and 164mm of rainfall has been recorded at Noosa Heads and Tewantin respectively in the 3 hours to 9:45pm AEST
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
nothing in Kingaroy apart from a bit of drizzle, although it has been strange all day, the birds were very quiet, and tonight even the flying foxes don't seem very noisy either, I wonder if that storm will hold it's intensity as it heads west, otherwise the BOM may have been premature in including Kingaroy in the SWW
Registered: 14/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
A poster has mentioned this earlier, but I do recall the SEWS being used for a 'very dangerous' storm back in 2006 up on the Sunshine Coast. But the rain up on the Sunshine Coast sounds truly phenomenal, I think I need to move from my donut hole to somewhere else, it seems we never get such events.
On a different note, if this continues to move inland and sits itself over the Stanley/Brisbane catchments and dumps 300mm or so, could we see a flood event of some significance above Wivenhoe Dam? And is it possible that we could see something like this setup come to the Brisbane metro area?
guys we lost TV reception, hoping lights stay on all night so we can keep in contact via internet ... keep us updating plse ...
Still lightning off the coast but rain has eased up over the last 10 minutes. It's still raining but I would now class it as pouring rather than torrential. Sorry, not very technical I know.
I have just checked our rain gauge which was emptied not long ago ... it is now showing two inches of rain in about 40 minutes ... no wonder our drains are having trouble!!! Seems to have slow down a bit now, as I type this message ... wind is picking up though ... correction ... started heavy rain again ...
What was that about an eye forming around here? can experts, admins feedback on that please?
#1080686 - 24/02/201223:09Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: SupercellsGalore]
Inclement Weather
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 7/03/2006
Loc: Bribie Island
Originally Posted By: SupercellsGalore
Last night's 12z run of the high resolution (0.125 degrees/16km) version of EC has a bullseye of heavier rainfall coming ashore around the northern Sunshine Coast/Southern Wide Bay area overnight.
Meanwhile ACCESS-C has an area of heavier rain coming ashore in the same area a bit earlier (this arvo).
Ain't that the truth. Kudos to EC
_________________________
The member formerly known as the donut hole
Transmitters serving the area between Tewantin and Caloundra, and inland to Kenilworth are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND for FLASH FLOODING
For people in the SUNSHINE COAST and parts of the GYMPIE and MORETON BAY Council Areas.
Issued at 10:03 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 9:55 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Tewantin and Eumundi. These thunderstorms are slow moving. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect Montville, Mapleton, Pomona and Kin Kin by 10:25 pm and possibly the area southeast of Gympie, Maleny, Kenilworth and Lake Cootharaba by 10:55 pm.
Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.
104mm of rainfall has been recorded at Tewantin in the 1 hour to 10:00pm. 93mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 10:00pm.
A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should: * Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters. * Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees. * Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm. * Beware of fallen trees and powerlines. * For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 11:00 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Emergency Management Queensland would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Registered: 24/01/2011
Loc: Elimbah, QLD, Australia
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: SupercellsGalore
Last night's 12z run of the high resolution (0.125 degrees/16km) version of EC has a bullseye of heavier rainfall coming ashore around the northern Sunshine Coast/Southern Wide Bay area overnight.
Meanwhile ACCESS-C has an area of heavier rain coming ashore in the same area a bit earlier (this arvo).
Ain't that the truth. Kudos to EC
An updated location of the Low / projected rain path would be handy right now. Will the rain keep heading SW inland towards Maleny / Kilcoy?
Sounds like some serious rain a little to the north. Constant rain here, moderate falls. I like to keep an eye on the height of Zillman Waterhole at F.Sleeman Pk for reference to the amount of rain we have had. It doesn't really cause havoc to many people, but because it is so close it is a good idea of how much rain is falling. As you can see here, http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ65389.540431.plt.shtml, it has risen over a metre at a 'steep' incline. Northern suburbs are getting some rain that is for sure.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
For the record this is the height of Wivenhoe Dam: Brisbane R at Wivenhoe Dam Hw # 9.28pm Fri 64.12 steady 2.88 below full supply
To compare with the Brisbane flood event in Jan 2011: Wivenhoe Dam peaked at 74.85.
The dam would have to rise 10.73m to reach the same level. At this time there is no threat to any areas below Wivenhoe Dam
Maybe not but if we get over 200mm in the Stanley and and Upper Brisbane catchments overnight I guarantee there will be releases from Wivenhoe in coming days.
As I speak its hammering down here in Toowong. Definitely a lot heavier in the past half hour. I can't imagine what must be going on further up the coast.
big difference between a rain rate of 100mm / hr and actually getting 100mm in an hr , thats a whole lot of juice.would suggest the likes of imbil , borumba be on their toes.
Absolutely agree with what you are saying. There will have to be some water released from Wivenhoe during the next 7 days. As always they will carefully time the releases to minimise downstream flooding.
talking of donut hole there is a big blue dot for Nambour Alert, 20mm for 13 hrs, when the rest around is min 60mm +... seems to consistantly give lower readings than other stations nearby... erroneous??
looking at the radar the storm system seems to have started to pick up a touch more speed heading inland..?
#1080708 - 24/02/201223:35Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: nocturnal1]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Looks like the coastal trough coinciding with the mid/upper low is starting to get transported inland by the upper low which is moving in a SW direction. Quite a slow moving system. Models have done a good job.
rain just about stopped here now ... distant runbling and lightning towards the ranges I say ... that maybe it then ... we welcome the break in the rain anyway ... drains look happier too ...
#1080720 - 24/02/201223:48Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: paulcirrus]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
That cell up near Tewantin is pretty phenomenal, no wonder its going so well though sitting right in the max surface convergence zone. This surface feature should start to weaken and shift SW/SSW over the next 6-12hrs. Orographic lifting (provided by the ranges) may enhance things further as this system starts to travel over land.
Latest stw 169mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 10:30pm. 127mm of rainfall has been recorded at Mount Tinbeerwah in the 1 hour to 10:30pm.
And now have the request at the top of the warning for the use of the sews
#1080724 - 24/02/201223:49Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: stormy_bec]
OzCyChaser Trav
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 25/03/2007
Loc: Alligator Creek - 22km South O...
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for FLASH FLOODING
For people in the SUNSHINE COAST and parts of the GYMPIE, MORETON BAY and SOMERSET Council Areas.
Issued at 10:37 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 10:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Cooroy and Pomona. These thunderstorms are slow moving. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect Palmwoods, Kenilworth, Imbil and Kandanga by 11:05 pm and the area south of Gympie, the area southeast of Gympie, Amamoor and Kin Kin by 11:35 pm.
Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.
169mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 10:30pm. 127mm of rainfall has been recorded at Mount Tinbeerwah in the 1 hour to 10:30pm.
A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Registered: 28/10/2003
Loc: Withcott...on the eastern side...
Originally Posted By: OzCyChaser Trav
169mm in a hour at Cooroy, you have to be joking, that has to be a record for queensland. I couldnt imagine that rainfall.
The qld record is 230mm in 1hr but it was set in 1920 so you would have to question It's authenticity, same goes for the 203mm in 20mins at Nobby...Certainly the highest I have seen!
ok looking at radar we're in that "donut hole" (smack bang in the middle of maroochy & caloundra is us)..but i'm now experiencing the loudest thunder & more frequent lightning right now..can anyone explain that? also, how bad is that system out over the sea heading this way? are we going to cop it again with that one?
#1080733 - 24/02/201223:58Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: sharjay]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
the increase in thunder and lighting is probably due to the fact that this system is building again ready for another dumping you often get the most thunder and lightning outside of the heavest rain
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
the increase in thunder and lighting is probably due to the fact that this system is building again ready for another dumping you often get the most thunder and lightning outside of the heavest rain
cool thanks squid..this system is pretty amazing..it's just been going on for hours. what about the one following in behind it?
#1080737 - 25/02/201200:03Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Hinezy]
Brizwx
Weather Freak
Registered: 25/07/2001
Loc: Forest Lake, SW Brisbane
For your info... in August 2007 Coops Corner (north of Noosa) scored 173mm in an hour, 304mm in 2hours and 415mm in 3 hours. In the 24hr period, they scored 817mm, but not official because it wasn't to the 9am mark. (Source BoM flood report for August 2007)
Like Scottie said, I'd imagine the conditions to ease a little in next few hours. I'm hoping to get something decent here... up to maybe 40mm so far and definitely heavier in last half hour.
#1080739 - 25/02/201200:06Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: sharjay]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
Originally Posted By: sharjay
Originally Posted By: Squid
the increase in thunder and lighting is probably due to the fact that this system is building again ready for another dumping you often get the most thunder and lightning outside of the heavest rain
cool thanks squid..this system is pretty amazing..it's just been going on for hours. what about the one following in behind it?
probably be another round of heavy rain with that one aswell
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
yes the wind and lightning is pretty bad now in caloundra, but no rain, why so. can't see it building on the radar out to sea. Must be a dry storm above us, but man the wind is howling. est about 70 to 80km/h almost constant
#1080741 - 25/02/201200:08Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Brizwx]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Brizwx
For your info... in August 2007 Coops Corner (north of Noosa) scored 173mm in an hour, 304mm in 2hours and 415mm in 3 hours. In the 24hr period, they scored 817mm, but not official because it wasn't to the 9am mark. (Source BoM flood report for August 2007)
Like Scottie said, I'd imagine the conditions to ease a little in next few hours. I'm hoping to get something decent here... up to maybe 40mm so far and definitely heavier in last half hour.
Yeh it should start to settle down in a few hours when the Surface convergence zone starts to move SSW and weaken out but until then we can expect this system to maintain intensity mabye even intensify a little with the added orographic lifting provided by the ranges as the system moves inland.
Rain steadily increasing here over the past few hours. Wind slowly picking up but then dying off, strong gusts at times though. Looks as though we might cop it some more in the early hours of tomorrow.
_________________________
"A hard rain's a-gonna fall"... rarely.
#1080744 - 25/02/201200:11Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: paulcirrus]
Squid
Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 3/09/2005
Loc: Caboolture
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
yes the wind and lightning is pretty bad now in caloundra, but no rain, why so. can't see it building on the radar out to sea. Must be a dry storm above us, but man the wind is howling. est about 70 to 80km/h almost constant
the radar shows up rain that is falling you can have loads of thunder and lightning and nothing can be above you on radar it is building again for another round
_________________________
squid squiddy that is me on facebook
the increase in thunder and lighting is probably due to the fact that this system is building again ready for another dumping you often get the most thunder and lightning outside of the heavest rain
cool thanks squid..this system is pretty amazing..it's just been going on for hours. what about the one following in behind it?
probably be another round of heavy rain with that one aswell
wonderful, look forward to it..NOT.. sounds like all this rain is playing havoc on the roads here...lots of closures happening now
Lots of rain falling up north by the sounds, hopefully it picks up speed and moves off the areas it is hitting sooner rather than later, and if it keeps going at this speed and intensity it will make it interesting more inland from Noosa as well, and will not drain off as fast.
Bit of a funny story, I resisted the urge to watch the rain here because it was not too bad, and looked just now to find that the rain gauge was not working again after I replaced one earlier in the week because ants had made a home in it and stopped it working. I discovered while I was fixing that I forgot to put the cover back on the electronic bit to protect it from the weather and it has become waterlogged, hopefully when it fines up I can get it working again, but kicking myself.
In case anyone's wondering, there won't be a complete sounding from Brisbane Airport tonight because the radar used to track the balloons lost lock on both the 1st and 2nd balloons in the heavy rain. The 2nd balloon got to 20,000ft before radar lock was lost. There'll be a full temperature sounding launched at 3am (instead of a wind data only flight) to make up for it.
Spent last 1 and half hours sandbagging and clearing channels. So far 195mm since 7am this am. 175mm this evening. Just hoping it doesn't do it all again. Think going to have a sleepless night.
Edit Looking back over totals around the place we were lucky!! Poor Cooroy. Big storm earlier this week Just hope everyone is staying staff around there. That amount of rain dangerous flash flooding.
For your info... in August 2007 Coops Corner (north of Noosa) scored 173mm in an hour, 304mm in 2hours and 415mm in 3 hours. In the 24hr period, they scored 817mm, but not official because it wasn't to the 9am mark. (Source BoM flood report for August 2007)
Like Scottie said, I'd imagine the conditions to ease a little in next few hours. I'm hoping to get something decent here... up to maybe 40mm so far and definitely heavier in last half hour.
Yeh it should start to settle down in a few hours when the Surface convergence zone starts to move SSW and weaken out but until then we can expect this system to maintain intensity mabye even intensify a little with the added orographic lifting provided by the ranges as the system moves inland.
How far inland do you think this storm will travel? The reason I am asking, is because then I will be in the firing line. Cheers
I certainly wouldn't be getting complacent over night if I were on the Sunshine Coast. Just because things appear to be clearing on the radar, I would still expect the onshore winds to continue dragging moisture across the coast through the night and into tomorrow morning. Even looking at the water vapor loop you can still see the sheer amount of moisture being kicked up by the low, and it is continuing to build out to sea off the 256 and 512 km radar.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up in the morning to at least another 200-300mm to have fallen over the Sunshine Coast areas by morning (say 6am), and continuing to push inland, with up to 200mm total for Northern Brisbane areas.
_________________________
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....
Thanks squid, but after looking at everything, i think all the lightning is coming from inflow storms up at tewantin and the wind is just inflow as well to those storms. So i think in the rain side of things , it may be finnished in the caloundra area.
#1080764 - 25/02/201200:27Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: stormy_bec]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Originally Posted By: stormy_bec
Originally Posted By: Scottie A
Originally Posted By: Brizwx
For your info... in August 2007 Coops Corner (north of Noosa) scored 173mm in an hour, 304mm in 2hours and 415mm in 3 hours. In the 24hr period, they scored 817mm, but not official because it wasn't to the 9am mark. (Source BoM flood report for August 2007)
Like Scottie said, I'd imagine the conditions to ease a little in next few hours. I'm hoping to get something decent here... up to maybe 40mm so far and definitely heavier in last half hour.
Yeh it should start to settle down in a few hours when the Surface convergence zone starts to move SSW and weaken out but until then we can expect this system to maintain intensity mabye even intensify a little with the added orographic lifting provided by the ranges as the system moves inland.
How far inland do you think this storm will travel? The reason I am asking, is because then I will be in the firing line. Cheers
It is really hard to say just how far inland things will progress.... I think it safe to say you will experience some rain but most likely in a weakened state the heaviest falls will be confined to the Coastal Plains.
N Maroochy River Eumundi- thats a 1m rise in the past half hour!!!
_________________________
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe habour. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover....
So i think in the rain side of things , it may be finnished in the caloundra area.
i'm not convinced...looks like another system (not sure how bad) is still heading this way from the east. been watching it for a while now and seems to have some decent falls in it..
So i think in the rain side of things , it may be finnished in the caloundra area.
i'm not convinced...looks like another system (not sure how bad) is still heading this way from the east. been watching it for a while now and seems to have some decent falls in it..
yes, I noticed that too ... I am trying to work out if it will affect us or not ... it seems to be heading our way ... but it does not seem to be as big as the previous cell ...
Transmitters serving the area between Tewantin and Maroochydore, and inland to Kandanga and Kenilworth are REQUESTED TO USE THE STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL BEFORE BROADCASTING THIS MESSAGE.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for FLASH FLOODING
For people in parts of the GYMPIE, SUNSHINE COAST and SOMERSET Council Areas.
Issued at 11:36 pm Friday, 24 February 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 11:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Cooroy, Kandanga, Pomona, Amamoor and Imbil. These thunderstorms are slow moving. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect the area south of Gympie, Kenilworth and the area northwest of Mapleton by 12:05 am and Borumba Dam and the Amamoor Range northwest of Kenilworth by 12:35 am.
Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely.
112mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooroy in the 1 hour to 11:30pm. 100mm of rainfall has been recorded at Cooran in the 1 hour to 11:30pm.
A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should: * Avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters. * Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees. * Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm. * Beware of fallen trees and powerlines. * For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 12:35 am Saturday.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Emergency Management Queensland would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
Rain had eased here for a bit , but just came back very heavy. 34.8mm since 9am. with gusty winds from the SE around 50km/h.
_________________________
"Exercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery; but let this not blind you to what virtue there is." - the Desiderata - think about it
lots of reports of people trapped in flood waters up here..sounds like emergency services are flat out. houses at noosaville, tewantin, eumundi, nursing home at cooroy, it's not going to be good if we get that second rain band come through tonight..
that rain band is starting to thicken up just north east of brissy with some yellow echoes starting to appear in the blob that is heading towards Brisbane
A bit concerned about Toowoomba. That slow-moving very heavy rain blob is moving SW. Looks like it will move across just north of Esk and continue to the Toowoomba district by morning. As we know, Toowoomba is not susceptible to long-term flooding but *very* prone to flash flooding. The last rain event that caused disastrous flash flodding in Toowoomba (Jan 2011) had rain rates of between 50mm/hr-110mm/hr (depending on which part of Toowoomba). This storm looks as bad or worse.
Rain easing from Noosa now, and Caloundra soon. More heavy rain in Brisbane tonight and over dams, but easing by 7am. Might even see some sun during the day? Lets see..
_________________________
4km NW of Archerfield, Brisbane.
#1080808 - 25/02/201202:12Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Brett]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
Don't think we'll see any sun tomorrow maybe late in the afternoon... There is still a fair bit of moisture feeding into the upper low over SE QLD and off the coast. Won't be surprise if rain areas redevelop across sunny coast area in a couple hours time.
The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this message.
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND Issued at 1:19 am Saturday, 25 February 2012.
Very dangerous thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area [east of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe]. However, heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue about the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts tonight and during Saturday morning. The immediate threat of very dangerous thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.
A separate Severe Weather Warning remains current for the Southeast Coast and parts of the Wide Bay and Burnett and Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.
Flood Warnings are also current for various rivers and streams in these districts, including the Mary River and Noosa and Maroochy Catchments.
_________________________
4km NW of Archerfield, Brisbane.
Don't think we'll see any sun tomorrow maybe late in the afternoon... There is still a fair bit of moisture feeding into the upper low over SE QLD and off the coast. Won't be surprise if rain areas redevelop across sunny coast area in a couple hours time.
This is on the record now Squeako.. I still think rain will be heavy in BNE tonight, but ease by 7am. Some sun tomorrow with isolated showers.
_________________________
4km NW of Archerfield, Brisbane.
#1080813 - 25/02/201203:17Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Brett]
Squeako da Magnifico.
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/06/2005
Loc: Caboolture, SE QLD
I still believe there is still 12-18 hours left in the event. There's still a heap of moisture pumping into this system showing on the vapour loop. Also, Instability is expected to increase tomorrow so definitely there's still prospect for more heavy rain and isolated storms.
can someone explain why the rain is clearly slowly moving inland, when the bom forecast says rain easing late for tomorrow...to me it looks like it will be over later this morning, what will cause more rain perhaps tomorrow?
86.4mm in total for me. (70.6mm before midnight and 17.8mm since midnight) and the last rain here was 3 hours ago. I can even see patches of milky blue sky to the east!
can someone explain why the rain is clearly slowly moving inland, when the bom forecast says rain easing late for tomorrow...to me it looks like it will be over later this morning, what will cause more rain perhaps tomorrow?
Forecast says rain easing today. I haven't seen a forecast mentioning rain easing on Sunday.
Damn, the Stanley River got to 7.8m at Peachester. If we didnt have Somerset and Wivenhoe, Brisbane would be facing another flood event now. Not necessarily a major event but still enough to cause some damage.
Registered: 23/06/2001
Loc: Caboolture, ~45km north of Bri...
Have you ever seen the Stanley at Peachester Locke? In the upper reaches where that guage is, it's more of a creek than a river. 7.8m in it is still a lot of water but compare it to a large river system like the Brisbane River and that volume of water would barely even put a ripple in it. Don't get me wrong - the Stanley can obviously pump out a massive volume of water but more so with major and high level major flooding when the river breaks it's banks and those extra cm's on the flood gauge aren't just the river filling up inside it's banks as it was doing last night but the river expanding onto the flood plain, so each extra cm is an infinitely higher volume of water.
Just emptied the rain gage here at Oxley and for the last 24 hours from 7am - 7am and we have had 55mm of rain. Not bad, thought it would be more as it woke me up a couple of times throughout the night - it sounded so heavy, hence the toothpics and need for more sleep.
No doubt the stories of the dire situation up the coast will filter through this morning as people awaken and the news starts to report it.
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
Just noted something interesting that puts this event into perspective. Those incredible totals of 250-300mm in the Cooroy/Cooran area in the 3 hours to midnight have pushed 6 Mile Creek at Cooran to 11m this morning and still rising http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDQ60287.html
Unless the gauges are different, then by my reading of the historical records here http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/brochures/mary/mary.shtml this already makes it the highest flood on record in the creek by some margin and higher than 1893. It's no wonder they are predicting a decent downstream flood at Gympie. For those not familiar with the area, 6 Mile Creek joins the Mary River right at Gympie. It's that long flat bridge with railings as you drive into town from the South.
Was thinking last night that this event reminded me of the disastrous flood at Kin Kin on the 2/4/2009, when Black pinch alert received 258mm in 2 hours. If you have a look at the radar images in the document below on page 13 you'll see what I mean. Although that event occurred in the middle of the day the similarity to what we saw last night is a bit freaky really. There's even the streaming in of smaller cells from the NE. The cell that day was positioned just fractionally further north hence most of the rain fell into the catchment of KinKin creek. Anyway that's enough of me thinking out loud. I'll leave you all alone now. Link below
Hi Coxy...I always look to see what you receive my neighbour as it is interesting how much suburb to suburb gets with rain events like this and how at times it can differ greatly. All good we match up - our donut hole received consistent totals
I haven't been down to see if little Doris creek is throwing a pool party over Blunder road this morning. Too tired to waddle down and see
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
Not sure there was quite enough for Doris to party. Seems to do it less since they cleared a lot of the vegetation around the good guys/bunnings. Probably a good thing the low has weakened quicker than expected. Especially for sunshine coast
Buster that was an interesting browse on the old flood. It did say there that 6 mile at Cooran's highest is 11.94 in 1992 so not quite there yet. But close!
Not sure there was quite enough for Doris to party. Seems to do it less since they cleared a lot of the vegetation around the good guys/bunnings. Probably a good thing the low has weakened quicker than expected. Especially for sunshine coast
Yes your are right it was only 55mm overnight unlike last time a couple of weeks back it was way more (3x the rain) when it did.
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
Registered: 14/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
62mm since 9am here. All in all, I was hoping we'd get 100mm or so from this event. So, disappointing here, but the rain up on the Sunshine Coast is truly phenomenal. Its times like these you'd wish that they'd just send the rain somewhere else instead of continually flogging the Sunny Coast.
Buster that was an interesting browse on the old flood. It did say there that 6 mile at Cooran's highest is 11.94 in 1992 so not quite there yet. But close!
Good job Lani. Didn't look at that bit. It's funny that in the other doc http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/brochures/mary/mary.shtml they have the Feb 1992 flood height as 10.25m. I remember that 1992 tropical low event well and I was wondering how it could have been a lesser flood in 1992 when Tewantin received more than 700mm in a day on that occasion. I'm sure the people along 6 mile creek will be pleased that I got it wrong.
starting to get darker here again ... but the action now seems to be north of Rainbow beach ... any predictions anyone? are more cells forming off the coast around here or we can call it curtains, at least for the next few days?
It is very interesting, for a loose term, "the hit and miss" of some of the totals around the Brisbane\ Gold Coast catchment areas, or maybe I should say where the "larger" accumulated falls were registered last night especially around the northern Sunshine Coast District. Some amazing figures to look at here
It doesn't look that bad a day so far and for the next few hours anyway. The radar looks pretty clear with only scattered showers up the coast until about Gympie where it's a little thicker. Most of the showers are more inland heading south west. Sunny Coast can handle alot more rain then further south , Brisbane is hopeless when it comes to water runoff.
Well, as my Nana used to say, that was a good drop of rain.
As a child, I always thought she was understating it, but last night, that is precisely what happened! The sky opened up and dropped everything it had. NEver ceases to amaze me how much water is up there. Anyhoo, last night we emptied the gauge just before it overflowed at 170mm, and this morning there is 110 - so, a total of 280. We are five minutes out of Cooroy to the south west.
_________________________
"No one likes erosion anymore... now all the scenery is made". (ref: James Gavin, "Fencing the Sky")
Here is a photo of the Six Mile Bridge at Cooroy on the Sunshine Coast that was badly damaged by heavy overnight rain that caused local flooding. Just wondering what the damage bill will be after the deluge?
123 mm here with most of that between midnight and 5 am. Surprised to see that much in the guage so it must have really flogged down while I was asleep.
Must say thanks to SupercellsGalore with great high res info and insight into this event. Really on the money and I hope we hear further contributions from him/her.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach. 2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
Using the WZ radar of Brisbane from 18 hours, can anyone else see the rotation of that thunderstorm near tewantin as is got closer to the coast? I saw RWM's post about a small low developing around that area earlier yesterday. Is this imagery just confirming that low?
can someone explain why the rain is clearly slowly moving inland, when the bom forecast says rain easing late for tomorrow...to me it looks like it will be over later this morning, what will cause more rain perhaps tomorrow?
Forecast says rain easing today. I haven't seen a forecast mentioning rain easing on Sunday.
#1080904 - 25/02/201211:27Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: dylos]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Showers and Possible Thunderstorms today for SEQ given the instability and rather saturated moisture profile. Suns Poking through between showers to try and give us some heating. Could even see thundery rain areas start to reform during the day and persist throughout the afternoon.
Must say thanks to SupercellsGalore with great high res info and insight into this event. Really on the money and I hope we hear further contributions from him/her.
No problem at all. And I'm a him (Ken Kato) Still expecting a fair bit of shower activity here today with a deep moist profile with maybe a bit of embedded thunder in some northern places due to modest instability.
very cloud here but sun pokes through at times..definately heating out there..and loads of it. 106mm since 9.00am friday here, total since tuesday's storms 281mm. not bad
dad just txt saying the oxley river in the tweed shire northen nsw is 1m over his bridge, doesnt take much, There has been a bot of rain around tyalgum and 111mm at bald mountian so that would be causing river rises in the tweed today, seems to be raining more constant now
Steady rain falling at Fortitude Valley now. Definitely need the umbrella if I go outside. The forecast is for more showers and heavier falls later tonight?
Only an extra couple of mm for me since the main rain stopped at 3am this morning. The total for me for this event is a tiny bit over 91mm. The temp keeps trying to rise and we have managed 28°C so far today.
Went out watched the lighting for a while last night but seeings most was imbeded in the heavy precip only caught sheet lightning on camera.
apart from flash flooding from last night up around Eumundi the downstream surge in the Nth Maroochy was dampened by lower falls/rain rates in the rest of the (Maroochy) catchment. This shot is after the peak at Chambers Crossing (at Yandina) late this morning.
prob a bit of a different story in the six mile creek catchment though.. And certainly would have been more of a problem if the slow moving storm last night had have been a little more widespread..
I emptied my main rain gauge this morning and it had collect 136mm since Thursday afternoon. A fair amount of showers/rain appearing on the radar atm. The current Sat pic looks pretty amazing.
I emptied my main rain gauge this morning and it had collect 136mm since Thursday afternoon. A fair amount of showers/rain appearing on the radar atm. The current Sat pic looks pretty amazing.
do u have a link to the sat pic? i cant say how much rain ive had here but it feels like alot lol
Have been under a shower train all day here - haven't emptied the guage but another 30-40 mm here since 9 am on top of the 133 mm here the previous 48 hrs. Looking eastward, more beefed-up showers to come this evening too.
Love these events with onshore winds right up to the upper levels.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach. 2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
Yeah Clem I hear you - was enviously watching on last month when Bribie seemed to be the world's wettest place with a rain magnet in place. I think this time the upper low being over northern NSW rather than further north has helped the wind profile in our neck of the woods too.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach. 2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
Have you ever seen the Stanley at Peachester Locke? In the upper reaches where that guage is, it's more of a creek than a river. 7.8m in it is still a lot of water but compare it to a large river system like the Brisbane River and that volume of water would barely even put a ripple in it. Don't get me wrong - the Stanley can obviously pump out a massive volume of water but more so with major and high level major flooding when the river breaks it's banks and those extra cm's on the flood gauge aren't just the river filling up inside it's banks as it was doing last night but the river expanding onto the flood plain, so each extra cm is an infinitely higher volume of water.
I thoroughly see your point.
I was at the Peachester crossing this afternoon and understand what your saying about it only being a smally creek. Woodford is a bit different though and it looks like peaking at around 6.12 m.
However, checking through the records from last year a 6m flow at Woodford only equates to about 250m3 sec which by itself will have little impact.
Currently under a very heavy shower and plenty of wind with it. These showers are streaming in from East and build along the way. Looking at the 256 kms radar seems to be plenty more showers building. I think we may get more than just a few showeers this evening / tonight. Would not be suprised if we don't get some further rain later this evening for the Brissie area.
Was just about to post when I saw your post reckless. The 256 k shows a large rain echo east of Moreton Bay heading WSW towards the Brissy/northern GC area. If that holds form or intensifies further some here will get another 10-20 mm at least. The satellite shows it is convective too and not weakening at the last image at 5 pm.
_________________________
Between the bush and the beach. 2012 YTD 1,192 mm; 2011 1,032 mm; 2010 2,151 mm; 2009 1,447 mm.
#1081084 - 25/02/201220:45Re: SE QLD / NE NSW - Possible cut-off LOW 23 - 25 Feb 2012
[Re: Squid]
Scottie A
Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 23/09/2009
Loc: Spring Mountain, Brisbane
Have had quite an active day here in Spring Mountain Heavy Shower wise, managed to score 33.9mm since 9am with a grand total for the event of 65mm which is not bad at all for this area. Im Certainly happy with the result... tanks, dam are all full to the brim and the grass will green up like crazy when we get some sunshine
Really primed for a flood here now. 42mm since 9am and still constant light-moderate showers although I note there is less East of Point Lookout than there has been all day so maybe we are nearly done. Went for a drive just on dark and there is water pouring off all the hills and local creeks are on the rise. Keep an eye on the Warrill creek if this next lot of showers coming through Beenleigh/Logan makes it this far. Another 10-15 mm in the next couple of hours would see significant flooding. That's the difference between catchments like ours and those closer to the coast. Once they are ready it takes very little rain to cause significant flooding.
hey all, was a very interesting drive between jimboomba and the gold coast today with a couple of roads flooded going the back way. first flooded road was Mundoolun Rd. that is fast flowing water so i didnt cross it.
then driving around Guanaba this arvo visiting friends there was even more roads cut such as Birds Road, Tarata Road (below)
Guanaba Creek Road was well and truly under a few hours before i drove through it with at least 1m of water over the road, here its currently 15cm under the bridge.
Henderson Creek at Cusack Lane in Jimboomba has been hovering 10-15cm under the bridge and we only got around 50mm overnight so I was very surprised to see that up soo much!
I had 46.2mm overnight and since 8am ive had 24.3mm with 9.9mm of that in the last hour and rising with that shower train moving in off the ocean which will probably dump another 10mm or more. total of 70.5mm for this event which isnt too shabby if you ask me!
Edited by !SCHUMMY! (25/02/201223:09) Edit Reason: more rain!
Really primed for a flood here now. 42mm since 9am and still constant light-moderate showers although I note there is less East of Point Lookout than there has been all day so maybe we are nearly done. Went for a drive just on dark and there is water pouring off all the hills and local creeks are on the rise. Keep an eye on the Warrill creek if this next lot of showers coming through Beenleigh/Logan makes it this far. Another 10-15 mm in the next couple of hours would see significant flooding. That's the difference between catchments like ours and those closer to the coast. Once they are ready it takes very little rain to cause significant flooding.
Keep safe all Neil
Those showers look like theyre packing quite a punch with rainfall rates up to 50mm an hour.
Due to silly ants and then not putting the cover back on the electronic part of the weather station I have not managed to get reading of last night and today when we had a bit here. It is quite sodden outside today, and we have missed most of it. I can see the bands just passing north of us atm, and only tagging us with light rain on the edges atm, but any further south and we could get a bit, but nothing like the other places this w/e. But boy are the frogs noisy tonight
I'm at Loganlea, closer to Waterford and the rain hasn't let up for hours now!! it's absolutely pouring!!! I don't have a weather station, so not sure how much exactly, but my back patio is under water! Locke, your right, the "showers" are packing a punch!!
I'm at Loganlea, closer to Waterford and the rain hasn't let up for hours now!! it's absolutely pouring!!! I don't have a weather station, so not sure how much exactly, but my back patio is under water! Locke, your right, the "showers" are packing a punch!!
i have read that there is apparently minor flooding at woodridge station.... the rain here has been mostly quite heavy for afew hours. i read about woodridge train station through the translink facebook page.
Edited by paul117 (25/02/201223:43) Edit Reason: minor mistake
Those showers look like theyre packing quite a punch with rainfall rates up to 50mm an hour. [/quote]
I hope we don't get anything like that here mate. Raining heavily as I type from the line of showers streaming in via Beenleigh. The radar suggests this might be the swansong mind you. I hope so. If it rains like this for a few more hours we will have major flooding by morning. If it stops soon we will just have moderate. You can see what I was talking about earlier with the Kalbar Weir gauge. http://reg.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65389/IDQ65389.540151.plt.shtml
I emptied my main rain gauge this morning and it had collect 136mm since Thursday afternoon. A fair amount of showers/rain appearing on the radar atm. The current Sat pic looks pretty amazing.
do u have a link to the sat pic? i cant say how much rain ive had here but it feels like alot lol
Registered: 14/08/2011
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
93mm from this event so far. Some of yesterdays showers were very heavy - thankfully they were not very long/wide bands of rain or slow moving, otherwise some serious flash flooding could have started to occur, given that the ground here is still very much saturated, especially in low-lying parts.
I've received another 27mm overnight from 7am -7am my total so far is 82mm. Not bad, one of the most annoying things is the grass is growing too fast and the lawn needs to be mowed again Hubbies turn this time I'm over it .... although its just too wet still to go near it.
Had a few showers today, one heavy burst for a couple of minutes, the rest were light, presently a nice breeze is blowing. Such a sleepy Sunday in this part of the woods!
_________________________
________________________________________ Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain
) 
.
Hope it goes well for you.
... I need another admin soon kekeke
Previous Topic
Index