Looks like the the NWS in Peru are open to the possibility of El Nino this year.

http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-1614-Peru-could-experience-El-Nino-says-national-weather-service-/

Yep certainly looking increasingly like an el-nino event and judging by the sub-surface in the West it could be a strong one.

The Kelvin Wave that has just reached the east Pac and the coast of Sth America. See below. Its influence should not be discounted... He rebound may well cool the area again. And remember - the atmosphere is still in (albeit weakly) in a La Nina state.

My computer models suggest slow erratic drop in soi for rest of 2012 to reach consistent El Nino type levels very late Spring 2012.
Other oceans will have strong effects in 2012, by other results from my models...but I can't give too much away, unfortunately...
with running a weather forecasting business.
Cheers

I remember thinking there might be a Nino this time last year, yet it didn't happen. Although this year it seems most of the ENSO models are supporting some sort of warm event taking place.

Thanks BD... The soi is the key predictor to watch at the moment I think. If it indeed does drop, then I wil feel that the chances of a Nino will increase signicantly. And yes I am aware that you said your models don't have a predictability barrier issue. So I'll watch with interest.

Just comparing last Feb's subsurface data with this years on TAO and there almost identical, so apart from what the models are saying, what’s making some people think this years more likely to become a Nino? And why does is seem so difficult to get neutral years lately? Seems as if were either in a cool or warm event these days.

I think I know what your saying there Ian ENSO will have little effect this Year regardless if its Neutral or El Nino especially for the Southern states cos the IOD (which I think will be Negative) & Southern Ocean & SAM will have a big influence on the Southern states this Winter and Spring I don't want you to reply to admit or rebuff anything that I assumed there but thats what I picked up from your post

I can sense similar set up to 1992 this Year

At least you're using your own models to run that business.

Personally I'd hate to predict the upcoming year but I suspect Elnino is the most likely outcome at this stage just purely based on what is happening in the subsurface of the pacific right now.

Yeah I still think it's far too early to tell for sure which way it will go. IIRC, this time last year we had a very large warm pool in the west too, and comments were being made such as 'we're on a knife's edge' as it could have gone either way. Just have to wait and see how it plays out over the next few months. Just for a bit of fun though I will back a warm-neutral or weak Nino to develop later this year.

I can't make any supportable call at this point. Could end up anywhere. I may be prepared to make a call in about a months time however. [See where the GWO is then amongst other indicators].

Given Mega is already making a Call, I will resurrect the Nino Prediction spreadsheet when I get home from work... it always was a lot of fun. So start thinking of where the ENSO - as per theBoM Climate Pages Nino 3.4 index here will be in the first week of December 2012. [i.e. The first update in December]

You may specify up to 2 decimal points - if there are any ties, the first entry will have priority.

As usual - winner will get bragging rights and all losers will have to grovel for being wrong. [and this means that if there is a tie then the person with the latter entry will still have to grovel - if only that they are so slack and late :D]

Just post up your prediction when ready and I'll start gathering. Entries close 31 March.

[Note - I will be re-posting this notice on a weekly basis to ensure all parties are aware!]

I think the warm pool is much stronger this time and were seeing it much earlier. If I had to put money on it, I'd be putting it on an El-Nino.

If so then its going to be interesting to see what impact it has on global temps. Some have said it would be the next El-Nino event that breaks the 1998 temp record (carefully ignoring what might have happened if we delve back further in history).

I do get a chuckle out of all this prognosticating about the ENSO and the chuckle is not directed at you posters out there.

The cynical chuckle is at the climate modellers and etc and etc who claim they can predict the climate and it's temperature and a lot of the consequences of those predictions a half century or even a claimed century ahead but can't predict the well known and major global weather and climate influencing phenomena, the ENSO, it's colour, it's timing and it's intensity and that for only some 3 or 4 months ahead.

The next 6 - 8 weeks will be the true indicator.

Arnost .

I don't think any time will change my call . i'm torn in two , my instinct says - 1.32 ( yes Minus !! ) but my head says + 0.23 . Either we see a third Nina ( and one as big as last season (2010/2011) , so it Book ends the three years with strong start and strong finish ) or we see an official Neutral but on the warmer side ....

So to say why not , i'll stick with my Gut and stay at - 1.32 . Its a massive early call , but no guts no glory ...........

Anyone thats been effected by floods in the last two years please don't jump down my throat or even start panicking as if My opinion counts .

Obviously the predictability barrier is yet to arrive and last year after we went through it the models were wrong anyway (or most of them ) . My punt is just that, a punt.

Part of me says 3 years of nina but part of me says that the nino of summer 2009/10 was actually the commencement of nina in the atmosphere so perhaps we have had our 3 already (though not "officially")?

Most of the people that have played in this thread over the years know that taking a punt in February is very brave indeed.

Heeehheheeee ,

i won't lose any sleep if I'm wrong ...... people already think I'm silly . But if i get it right then I'm a Lunatic . ...... to the Victor goes the spoils . Fortune favours the Brave .

I'll also put in a tip that no -one else will make a tip till the last two weeks of March . But by that time it will have countered / leveled a little and everyone will be none the wiser .....

So do you have a figure for your Nino CF ?

+0.20

I will go for a third nina at -1.2