Some of the models have been playing around with the idea of a low cutting off from the upper trough on Friday with GFS and WATL forecasting between 100-150mm mostly on Friday.

A few days ago the models were thinking this could develop around the Warrego somewhere so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty.. but it's still definitely worth watching in my opinion?

GFS seems to have most of the precip just to the north of Brisbane while WATL places the bulk close to the coast near Brisbane.

GFS



WATL

Been watching this possible event on the models too... In the earlier runs it had the event starting today but with each update they kept on pushing the start date later and later and now pushing most of the precip more coastal and offshore. Will definitely see an increase in showers During later Thursday/Friday/Saturday with a deep E/NE flow particularly near the coast and up towards the sunshine coast region.

Latest GFS now out and continuing the theme - looks marginal from the charts but the precip totals are up there. Very much a coastal event - though beyond this one looking wet again inland and along the coast.

Yes, there has been a lot of uncertainty with the positioning and timing of the next upper system. The models have yet to get a grip on it. The recent forecasts are based on a consensus between the extremes. The latest coastal forecasts issued at 3.06pm don't progress the uncertainty. However, there is an indication that coastal winds will at least be at strong wind strength on the Saturday - but this may change. We shall await this afternoon's model runs and see just what the BoM's thinking is. I do note what Hinzey has discovered with GFS having a cut-off upper low hovering over our neck of the woods on Friday. We shall see if EC's thinking is the same soon. In any case, we should at least see some decent shower activity over the next few days if not a rain event.

Well, the 00Z EC run has backed right off this event. Interestingly, it has the upper trough quickly receding off the coast with little or no effect on the weather over SEQ. Now, this is entirely at odds with GFS which has the upper trough as a cut-off low over NE NSW and encroaching into SEQ with a significant effect of the weather of SEQ. The BoM seem to be leaning towards the GFS scenario in its latest forecasts. Has EC lost its touch on this one?

Access-R just recently updated and pushes a ridge up through SE QLD and therefore now showing Little to no precip for Friday and Saturday similar to EC. Wonder if GFS will follow it's more accurate counterparts in it's next updated run?

You can add UKMET to that list as well....

Video from Jeff H



I hope Ballina is at least dry on friday in between 1 -3pm i have a driving test!

BOM have just issued a flood warning-

FLOOD WARNING FOR COASTAL RIVERS AND ADJACENT INLAND CATCHMENTS FROM TEWANTIN TO CABOOLTURE

Issued at 10:51 pm EST on Wednesday 22 February 2012

by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane.

Heavy rainfall during Wednesday evening is expected to lead to some minor and moderate flood levels overnight and during Thursday. River and creek levels are expected to continue rising whilst rainfall continues.

Rainfall totals since 9am Wednesday include 72mm at Eudlo, 77mm at Ewan Maddock Dam and 112mm at Landsborough.

MOOLOOLAH CATCHMENT

Minor flood levels are expected overnight at Mooloolah. Moderate flood levels are expected at Jordan Street during Thursday.

MAROOCHY CATCHMENT

Minor flood levels expected along Paynter Creek at Diddilibah

COOCHIN CREEK

Minor flood levels expected at Old Gympie Road.

STANLEY RIVER

Minor flood levels possible on Thursday at Peachester.

Creek level rises also expected along Obi Obi Creek in the Mary Catchment.

Weather Forecast:

For weather information see www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts .

Next Issue:

The next warning will be issued by 8am Thursday

Well, the chopping and changing continues... Access-R is back on board for this event but mostly for North of Brisbane and it has this current rain activity to last for most of Today as well... GFS is persisting with the rain event. I remember IW mentioned this in the last Rain event that GFS seems to do better with the mid/upper level systems. This could be the case as well? Awaits for the next model updates...

well its raining heaps here so I guess the rain event is already here?

i agree, had 50mm fall overnight here, the rain event has definitely started here

Wow! The Stanley River peaked at about 6m just from last nights falls (albeit after heavy storms the day before. The Stanley catchment must be completely saturated.

We'd better hope this rain event doesn't deliver significant falls North of Brisbane into the catchment areas.

my room got flooded this morning rain came in sideways threw the window an wet evrything, then from about 7am to 9am it was absalutley bucketing down toreential in this part of the world, not to sure about rain rate but it was solid as, i recon wed be 50mm plus the last few hours just very isolated on the tweec coast tho some of the heaviest rain iv seen here

the latest wind warning suggests a trough of the coast is going to move closer during the next 24 hrs.

PRIORITY
Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For coastal waters from Yeppoon to Cape Moreton.
Issued at 9:35 am EST on Thursday 23 February 2012

Synoptic Situation
A trough off the southern coast of Queensland is expected to move closer to the coast during the next 24 hours.

Strong Wind Warning
Yeppoon to Cape Moreton
S to SE winds 25 to 30 knots between Noosa and Sandy Cape will spread southwards to Cape Moreton and northwards to Yeppoon by late evening. These winds will then continue for at least another 24 hours.
Seas will reach 3 metres. SE to E swells will increase to 2.5 to 3 metres.

The next warning will be issued by 4 pm Thursday AEST.

i just had a look through gfs and it looks to me as if it is now forecasting a much weaker through than what it showed yesterday, but also this morning boms forecast suggests that the rain should be clearing during the afternoon, meanwhile a through is moving closer to the coast?

Yeah there's been good steady falls here all morning, haven't checked the gauge yet. Hope it clears by the weekend though. Feeling lucky as I have a day off today, perfect weather for reading.

Is it just me or does there appear to be a circulation starting to form on radar off the Fraser coast about 100km east of Eurong?

I feel more confident about this event occurring now with EC back on board.

BOM just updated the Brisbane/SE Coast forecast

UPDATED Southeast Coast District
Forecast for Thursday

Cloudy with rain areas. Light to moderate S to SE winds, fresh at times about the coast.

UV Alert from 8:10 am to 3:50 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 13 [Extreme]

Friday
Cloudy, further rain periods, local heavy falls in the afternoon.
Saturday
Cloudy with rain areas, scattered showers and local thunder, easing to isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday
Scattered showers.

BoM has just updated its forecast for the SE Coastal District:



There's that word 'heavy' now included.