All good Teck, I agree it has backed off considerably from a few days ago when I first mentioned the system, I do see an upgrade this morning on both GFS & ACCESS which is nice though...

The BOM are really not sure either & quite frankly I don't blame them at all for their end comment..

State forecast for Sunday 26 February

"Patchy rain and possible thunderstorms gradually extending from the west, to reach Coober Pedy to Kingscote late evening. Dry over the remainder apart from isolated showers and possible thunderstorms near the eastern border. Hot with moderate to fresh northerly winds ahead of a milder southwesterly change in the west slowly extending eastwards to reach southern coasts in the evening. Cumulative rainfall totals from Thursday morning until midnight Sunday are expected to 1 to 5 mm with possible local falls of 5 to 10 mm with thunderstorms, however confidence in this forecast is low."

That's what it said for saturday when I made that post mate . The airport was at 50% for 5-10mm from memory.

Late sunday on through monday looks alright. Some moisture and instability...good stuff.

Excited for a bit of storm action on my birthday (Monday), hope I get a storm as a present lol

Just noticed boms notes for the next week have been upgraded slightly.

Monday 27 February

Isolated showers and thunderstorms northeast of Broken Hill to Oodnadatta and isolated showers over the Nullarbor Plain. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, easing to isolated showers over the southern agricultural area later in the day. Hot with moderate northerly winds in the east, ahead of a milder moderate to fresh southerly change, reaching a line Yunta to

Marla late evening. Cumulative rainfall totals from Thursday afternoon until midnight Monday are expected to be 5 to 15 mm, with local falls of 15 to 35 mm with thunderstorms over the Pastoral districts.

Tuesday until Thursday

Areas of rain and isolated thunderstorms over the Pastoral and Flinders districts, with local heavy falls. Patchy rain over the northern agricultural area and West Coast district. Possible isolated showers developing about the coasts on Thursday.

A sliding, slow moving trough system with a persistent upper divergent flow should yield storms in many areas. Sunday night/monday looking good atm and what is more I will be free (shock horror!!!)

TS

I hope this is relevant, Im over in Kangaroo Island at the moment and had one of those magic place moments today so I filmed it with my cam HD

Yer great place Azzz... I love it...


Loving how the models do seem to be ramping this system up day by day.... starting to look very nice, even precip wise, especially for Mid North, Riverland, Mallee on the Monday....
Probably heading out with Lennie Sunday night.... will be like old times...

Love it Azza! gotta be one of my fav places in the world right there, lovely little cave walk and secluded lagoon for the kiddies, with decent surf beach beyond, actually pumps well there in the stiff SE flow with nice offshores and a lingering groundswell.

TS

Dramatic Dec 7th 2010 storm footage there Epthunda We don't see many storm fronts like that in our SA lifetimes.
Wouldn't we all love to be standing in front of that storm watching it racing towards us this afternoon

models are a dogs breakfast this morning. All agree rain on the way but some have it for the east of the state another the west.
Hope every body gets there fill

Yea they got no idea whats gonna happen yet and neither do I just hope we get sometehing worthwhile.

Yep it's all a bit up in the air the moment it seems. Not really confident that we'll be seeing as much moisture as we'd like but at least there should be some thunderstorms around

I always look at the bom chance of rainfall forecast if the models are confusing me. At least 1mm for central, 25% chance of at least 5mm...so maybe somewhere between those.

31-36 maximum on sunday with a possible shower, mid to high 20's on monday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Weatherzone going for 90% chance of 5-10mm...I think they tend to overestimate but hopefully they're on the mark this time

Further to our discussion about rainfall in southern SA over the coming months initiated by Farm Weather, we didn't get around to including moisture from the Indian Ocean. Here's some BOM info I found released a couple of days ago.
Source: BOM http://reg.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml
"Wetter autumn favoured for much of northern and eastern Australia
"National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Autumn 2012, issued 22nd February 2012
Wetter autumn favoured for much of northern and eastern Australia
The national outlook for March to May 2012 shows the following:
large parts of northern and eastern Australia more likely to have a wetter season
southwest WA, southern Victoria and Tasmania more likely to have a drier season
At this time of year, the outlook model has low skill outside the tropics and southwest WA; we advise caution using this output.
This outlook is mostly due to warmer than normal waters over the Indian Ocean; cooler Pacific waters associated with La Niña have had a lesser impact."

There's plenty more including colored maps and probabilities, which I have not had the time to come to grips with.

On another topic Adelaide has hit 38.9 C already. This has the makings of a 3 day mini heat wave for some of us.

50% of median rainfall correct me if im wrong gurus is 50% of of decile 5 rainfall. So that means 5 out of 10 chance of acheiving and 2.5 out odf 10 chance of above and below the decile 5 which means dead on avearge or have got all this median/average stuff mixed up?

i reckon weve had this discussion a while back

Went down to largs for a bit of a walk...damn it's hot.

Anyway, there's some suspicious looking black, wooden ship not far out. Looks like a pirate ship...it's not the one and all, fair bit bigger and older looking. Just sitting there at the moment but would look pretty impressive in full sail I bet. Would have grabbed a picture but forgot my phone.

Some nice wispy cirrus and flat looking stout cumulus around.

Chris, that's probably the Endeavour that's been in the Port for the past 10 days or so. We've had a look at it from the water the past 2 Saturdays from our dragon boats whilst out training. Quite impressive.

Cheers red earth that would definitely be it! Surprised I hadn't heard it was around.

I'm kinda surprised that I haven't seen another pic of this, from Tuesday:

I saw that aswell while i was at work, dont think ive ever seen it around the sun, only the moon, isn't it something to do with ice crystals or something?

Ice crystals in the cirrus, yes.