Yes Ruckle Some models looking like Melbourne areas, others look like my area. So I will meet half way and depeneding on wether you go the Hume Fwy or the backway it could be Seymour or Eildon - LOL (for the best area for good rains).

Mind you I am thinking that Victoria will look significant for rainfall compaired to NSW over the next week.

Hee hee, some space for rent on that post TU? Or something wrong with my settings? 12z run real interesting. ACCR has big purple blob to Melbournes immediate NE by Monday evening. Norwegian re bumping totals up as well. One disagreement in models is how long heavy rain hangs on in the NE of the state Tuesday. As for tomorrow, this morning run suggests maybe Skipton to Mortlake area could see some stormyness tomorrow pm, obviously you could go further NW but pretty warm up above, long hot drive for a ? (on a Sunday anyway). Monday absolutely spanking day for all genuine weather nuts, just to see how it all unfolds, looks like a tight precip gradient from SW of Melbourne to a bullseye somewhere NE of town, maybe north.

Today - HOT! Some increase in moisture perhaps from yesterday so really HOT.

"Hee hee, some space for rent on that post TU? Or something wrong with my settings?"
TU is such a free spirit, aren't you? Likes space around them Me too.....







It's already 30c here according to my little weather station. Feels like it's gonna be a stinker
My animals will be migrating indoors again today.

Calm and stinking hot here.

^Yup

Amazing how much more bearable it is than Cairns though. If it was this temp in Cairns everyone would be dieing

It stayed calm and got to 37.2C here today, a slight easterly breeze has helped bring the temp back down to 35C atm, baro has reduced from 1020 to 1015 hPa.

Can a mod extend this to around the 2nd of March? Its not the same event but if weather still is happening a day after you might aswell...just my opinion.
GFS backing off this system and so is BSCH (same thing?), no likely storms for the CBD Melbourne even though BOM think its scattered worthy. ACCESSR however...have 100mm from 11am Monday to 11am Tuesday right above Melbourne.

The event later in the week is a different system. Tuesday night or Wednesday morning maybe start that one if you like.(if its still on then). As for this one still looking good ACCR as you mentioned has gone nuts, EC/Norwegian has 44mm for me on Monday so pretty strong, UKmet likes it, has around 30mm. All have even more just NE of Melbourne. GFS has been less enthusiastic all along but still has reasonable falls. Right now Id be surprised/disappointed with less than 20mm for event total at home.

Bloody hot today, as mentioned at start of this thread even more so in the SW and near coast with a couple of 40's and nearly there at Port Fairy. Slight increase in moisture saved us from slightly higher max.

Edit: Except the NE that seems really dry, hence Things having greater comfort level in the mid 30's than you would in Cairns.

Of the latest model runs, I would say that generally there has been a backoff in the rain totals early next week with the change pushing in behind this hot weather event.

Not so AccR - its got all guns blazing......!!!

Thats ACCESSG Petros ^_^, but yeah those are some insane rainfall totals for Metro.

Don't see very often full of clouds inland Australia and looks like the humid air start to crash against SW change in SE WA ......Only NW WA,VIC and TAS is cloud Free.
Heavy Rain is will happen once the system reach SA into VIC and NSW...
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=aus&loop=yes&images=5&allday=&start=&stop=#nav

Will be very interesting to see the result of this.
Get your video/cameras ready

I am in Brisbane at the moment and wish I was home to see if we get anything this time. i will be home Tuesday week so hope there will be something for me to get excited about then. A fifth of the water we have had here would be nice at home.

An "Aqueous holiday Gabby?".

We are in for an oppressive night here, dead calm and hot.

25 degrees right now - nearly 11 pm and too hot to sleep. Hope we do get all this rain, but not excessive amounts, my garden and lawns starting to look very sad.

Nice increase in DP's across the state, particularly in the NW where it has happened without showers in vicinity.

EC still giving me 40+mm for the event, I am going to stick with the 20-30mm hope/prediction for here at home. NE/ eastern high country still a chance of very solid totals.

ACCESSG not quite as keen but still great rainfall, 15-30mm, and a small red blob in the outer east of central parts, ACCESSR however is still keen however not quite as beserk as yesterdays run.

Heaps of low clouds flying from the North looks like been cool change but its not.....

Tells me heaps of humid air coming down....

Beautiful N'ly stream showers up here this morning. Constant overcast and showers keeping the temp down.

Been watching this link keenly, whenever there is a chance of a decent event - Australia 4km WV (MTSAT - 1R) BSCH.com.au
(re: water vapour) - can be quite beautiful to watch actually.

Low very grey cloudlets passing by atm.
Looks like the calm between the two systems (the east/north and the west) before it gets interesting