This system has looked promising for a week or more with models now agreeing on showers/storms across much of the state possibly with a band of rain early Monday..

Sunday
Showers developing about the middle of the day with things getting interesting later in the evening when instability increases making the possibility of a thundery evening for Adelaide. All the action will be coming in from the NW

Monday
Trough moving through in the early hours increasing showers/storms with a possible rain band developing clearing by mid afternoon

From the BOM notes...
Cumulative rainfall totals from Saturday morning until midnight Tuesday are expected to be 5 to 15 mm over the agricultural area and West Coast district. 15 to 25 mm is expected over the Flinders and Pastoral districts, with local falls of 25 to 45 mm over the Pastorals.

LOOK at the LI of eyre peninsula tomorrow gee i wish i was still back on the ep. Is much chance of storms in adelaide tomorrow night?
http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.h...nefc=#stormcast

The high res ACCESS is picking up some relatively heavy falls in a blob near central...like 15-20mm. Will be interesting to see if we even get close to that.

I think so epthunda. I could see them building around YP and then having enough push to roll into Adelaide for sure. From late arvo sunday into evening and early morning, probably at around dusk until morning would be best (I'll say starting around 9:30pm) Moves away from central areas pretty quickly after that.

Aviation today:
ISOLATED DUST DEVILS OVER LAND AFTER 00Z.

Will prob also see a bit of high based Cu/accas later today as well...
edit: should've looked outside.... Cu already developing...

I like it when the weather gets its own thread. SO this one is looking like a stay put type scenario/down the beach front??

Just hit 40C in the city!

Plenty of Cu about central & EP areas today.. flat yer but still a lot more that I expected. DP's are little higher than expected too I think....

A little heads-up.... Showalter now with a black blob over the gulfs at 12Z tonight.
GFS does now have a little amount of instability over us, considering the cloud development that is no surprise.

NOT TONIGHT PLEASE!!! But I reckon something might get up it always does after a very hot day. Cu bases ATM about 11,000ft lol. Half way thru a bucks now but I had to check the models etc. in short VERY GOOD upper divergence, repetitive thunderstorms in lines should form tomorrow arvo and evening. Good uplift from sfc as well. Good moisture building to Monday where heaviest falls will occur early. Looks solid for Sunday night all night long. Big bolts to be had. But watch for branchy ones tonight but not many.

TS

first cell near Arno Bay, looks to be moving SSE

37c here, feels hotter!



Yeah just went outside for a bit of a scope and it's definitely looking pretty cauliflower-like on the tops of those clouds. Stood there and watched them for a bit and could see them developing in the right way...some of the bigger ones have nice dark bases. They're fairly high up by the looks, I have trouble figuring out heights with no scale though.

Latest BOM notes...

Cumulative rainfall totals from Saturday afternoon until midnight Wednesday are expected to be 5 to 15 mm over the agricultural area and West Coast district, increasing to 15 to 30 mm over the northern agricultural areas and with thunderstorms. Falls of 30 to 60 mm are expected over the Pastoral and Flinders districts with local falls of 60 to 100mm possible.

This cloud has certainly surprised me & I have a visual on some nice Cu to the West which could form into cells soon, looks to be over the SE of YP, a good sign..

Gee tomorrow night is looking nuts... on current runs things should get interesting with showers forming anytime from sunrise then storms locally from about 4pm onwards with a high Lifted Index of up to -4 across the GAA up until midnight

New forecast from the BOM for Eastern EP updated at 4:48pm..

Eastern Eyre Peninsula area

"Partly cloudy. Winds northerly averaging 15 to 30 km/h."

Current Radar of the area top left.. http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/sa/adelaide

Really makes no sense at all as to why in the space of an hour they cannot get a forecast right

Yeah I'm not sure why they wouldn't catch that SD...mind you I was looking at the radar half an hour ago and I missed it somehow

BOM forecast doesn't seem as confident as I thought they would be. Scattered showers and chance of TStorms in the evening. I don't like the 40% chance of just 0-3mm. WZ has 70% chance of 10-20mm, but find it hard to believe we'll get that much...it is february after all. Stranger things have happened though.

It's just the [censored] GFE making the wording worse than it otherwise would be

TS

Looking at the satpic for the whole country right now is something of a treat. The whole of Australia just lit up.

Yeah TS I forgot about that.

pinni - which satpic? I was expecting to see some lightning showup on the visible or something but it looks pretty dark to me. The satpic is very cool atm though, with the swirling clouds popping up everywhere. Lots of interesting patterns.

He was talking about the normal infra red satpic, regarding the convective nature of it over the whole continent practically.

Looking doubtful for anything locally tonight. Not quite sure what Showalter was picking up there unless a field of mid level cloud is going to suddenly spring up in the next few hours... otherwise its all pretty clear.

Taking into consideration it's FEBRUARY, one should ease up on the chances of higher rainfall. BUT, a strong cold pool with a pronounced northwest infeed PRECEEDED by convective moisture already over the ag's / mid north etc. A rainband is likely to form and be with us tommorrow evening ISH, or maybe after dark.
STRAW CLUTCHING totals for my area, 15 - 20 mm ,,, thats my call,, maybe more, but big february falls are a rarity so i'll almost be surprised if we get that.
Oh and an average chance of a storm,,,not expecting much stormwise at this stage for Adelaide,, but watch those skies,,,, i can't rule it out.

EYES TO THE SKIES,,,,

I'm off to bed, BUT....... Showalter was right once again!!
Storms currently firing on foot of YP, all heading SE though.... but keep an eye on any mid level cloud that forms overnight and heads our way...