Here at Nairne, its looking very interesting in all directions. Might disrupt bowls this afternoon

Bit of a minor heads up guys some rapid cell development out west and more encouragingly near the iron triangle for us. Best cell is a nice stationary one on the foot of YP.

I hadn't looked at the weather in a couple days...had no idea we'd have anything nearby tonight. Glad you made this thread I'm liking the optimism SD!

Hoping Tim will be proved wrong

Nice red core cell over the foot of YP, no strikes yet but I feel they are not far away, instability start increasing from now till late evening...

edit* you beat me too it WG

Those cells over the iron triangle i feel might scrape Adelaide, or they will fall to pieces like a new dog toy !

Some incredible shear...

Currently about 100km north of port Augusta can see a lot of big bubbles towards the south west eyre way! Looks like I'm coming down for a holiday just at the right time

About 3 cells just developed near Ardrossan ! They might just make it to Adelaide !

We are going to be so much playing piggy in the middle here....

No-Man's Land and Riverland looking nice for storms later coming down from the Flinders...

If anyone hasn't worked it out yet, I am otherwise occupied from 3pm till midnight so if if you get the gist......

Fingers crossed I think they might pulse out before that though. Not quite enough staying power yet I don't think.

On second thought, that cell down on the boot of YP has been going for about an hour.

Have a look at the 300mb winds, jet max in excess of 115 knots by 10 00 pm, that is pretty damn impressive. I dont like the warm uppers though, really gonna limit any height and bases will be low. Might be hard to see any real clear lightning, if there is that much to start with. Basing this on GFS, havn't looked at other charts.

Ah figures with ur pessimism Tim lol.

I have liked today for many days but disliked the way GFS kept best instability sliding but ACCESS gives us storms and is still keen. EC even does. Sky visually is not bad, nice castellanus about with cu forming below.

TS

Stunning guster 65km north of pt augusta!!!

Not sure how the uppers are warm Markus? With the approaching upper trough temperatures are between -12 and -18 which is good for this time of year.

And Tim, when don't you have something on? Geez..

tell me about it.... too bloody busy....


Image from a friend on a rig south of Moomba taken a couple of hours ago. Moomba has had 110mm since last night....

At this stage i can't see anything making it past the gulf but later on it will start to.

Im talking the 300mb level. http://forecasts.bsch.com.au/stormcast.h...mode=#stormcast

Looking at a sounding from the tip of Fleurieu Peninsula at 7.30pm http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html...218&chart_mode=, mid level instability is very good, but then gets plateaued off rather quickly due to warm upper air at around 7km. 7km is still okay though

Just punching the core on that cell north west of port Augusta!! Intense

Dont look like the LSE will see anything out of this tonight only just rain

Hope you are getting some pics Brad!!!

Well have fun all....