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#1369839 - 11/03/2016 19:13 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Nice pics Steve, not sure if we'll be posting here for a little while yet. Summer is certainly still trying to hold on.

Looks like autumn may commence around the 20th March for these parts. Seems like a good cool change will arrive.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
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#1369946 - 12/03/2016 11:10 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Steve - our trees went very early too. I think moisture stress was a big part of it. Many of the leaves are just going brown instead of colouring out here.

The rain yesterday though could possibly slow it down again, have seen that happen once or twice before.

Next week out here will finally see us get slightly more autumnal I reckon. Then Easter should be another cool down. FINALLY getting close to a "step down" out here I think, not before time either. grin

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#1370946 - 19/03/2016 18:22 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3672
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I've posted earlier versions of this spreadsheet. It shows the daily mean at Sydney Olympic Park from mid Winter last year out to March 26 (forecast used for March 20-26). I think it shows that Autumn has arrived:



The dashed blue line is the daily mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum for the day). The red line is a 9-day moving average. The green line represents the average for the period 1996-2015.

It shows a sudden drop from unseasonably hot conditions back to average since the start of the week, almost a mirror of the sudden rise in early October. Pretty much uniquely in my memory, 'peak Summer' seems to have come right at the end.

We might get a few more 30 degree days, but not long runs of them. 35 degrees is now quite unlikely before October / November.

Sydney's long Summer 2015/16: 4/10/2015 - 14/3/2016, with a couple of interruptions.

P.S. the equinox occurs tomorrow March 20 at 3:30PM AEDT.

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#1370949 - 19/03/2016 19:10 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1883
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Equinox tomorrow but this site shows the 12 hours of sunshine is crossed between 23/24 March. Something to do with the Earth's shape/wobble/procession/mood I think I remember reading.

Out of interest Steve why do you pick 9 days for your running mean? I do a lot of this stuff when I am trying out new data processing software and languages. I always use 7 (for my lowest benchmark) because it's the number of days in a week.

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#1370956 - 19/03/2016 21:04 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: kizz]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3672
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Hello Kizz.

It wasn't anything too scientific. When I first put together the spreadsheet a few months ago, I tried different numbers. As I recall, 5 or 7 were a bit bumpy, while 9 or more smoothed some of the rough edges. I went with 9, small enough to bring out warm and cool spellls while smoothing out the large ups and downs which are so much a feature of Sydney's Spring and Summer weather.


Edited by Steve777 (19/03/2016 21:11)

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#1370957 - 19/03/2016 21:15 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Online   shocked
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 864
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I've posted earlier versions of this spreadsheet. It shows the daily mean at Sydney Olympic Park from mid Winter last year out to March 26 (forecast used for March 20-26). I think it shows that Autumn has arrived:



The dashed blue line is the daily mean temperature (average of maximum and minimum for the day). The red line is a 9-day moving average. The green line represents the average for the period 1996-2015.

It shows a sudden drop from unseasonably hot conditions back to average since the start of the week, almost a mirror of the sudden rise in early October. Pretty much uniquely in my memory, 'peak Summer' seems to have come right at the end.

We might get a few more 30 degree days, but not long runs of them. 35 degrees is now quite unlikely before October / November.

Sydney's long Summer 2015/16: 4/10/2015 - 14/3/2016, with a couple of interruptions.

P.S. the equinox occurs tomorrow March 20 at 3:30PM AEDT.


Interesting graph, especially the very late peak this year.(normal peak would be late Jan-early Feb).
Very please though that autumn is upon us, a forecast of 35C for a weeks time has now been downgraded to 30C - no more last hurrahs here either.

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#1370990 - 20/03/2016 10:29 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Yes good graph Steve.

Well it looks like Cooma Ap was a bit chilly this morning with 0.8C. Still about 8C and quite breezy.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1371068 - 21/03/2016 11:35 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Finally getting to be autumn proper. Summer dragged out indeed, in some places it will still take a while to shake the summer warmth, eg Western areas. The nights though inland become more difficult to overcome due to the temp drop on clear nights. smile

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#1371158 - 22/03/2016 08:27 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DerekHV Online   shocked
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 864
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Finally getting to be autumn proper. Summer dragged out indeed, in some places it will still take a while to shake the summer warmth, eg Western areas. The nights though inland become more difficult to overcome due to the temp drop on clear nights. smile


Very happy with the drop in night time temps here, although not as pronounces as further inland, finally needing a light blanket at night now.

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#1371165 - 22/03/2016 09:15 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yes we have turned the fans off at the moment and keep vacillating between a blanket and a light quilt. Last night was a bit too warm for the thin quilt but too cool for the blankie!!

Soon we will have the heater on at work in the morning but the cooling on in the arvo. smile

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#1371239 - 23/03/2016 06:30 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Ron W at Walcha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/04/2008
Posts: 421
Loc: Walcha. NSW Northern Tableland...
First ice for the year this morning.Down to 1.8, 2.1 atm. Ice on vehicles-too dark to see if light ground frost.

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#1371255 - 23/03/2016 09:33 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Showing off again Ron grin Thats a good effort. Coldest for us so far this year, is this morning at about 6.

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#1372099 - 02/04/2016 18:03 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3672
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Today was warm - temps ranged from 18-31 in Sydney, although things have changed in the last couple of weeks:

- nights are no longer staying above 20
- humidity is down
- we've had a warm, sunny day with light winds and no sea breeze
- the 'hot' days are now around 30, not 35+

The natural world is reacting as if Autumn was starting. While some deciduous trees are still in full leaf, flashes of Autumn colour are becoming more noticable.

Another welcome return in Autumn are the Tibouchinas. Here are some beautiful Tibouchina's in in bloom in Centennial Park the other day:

Tibouchinas in Centennial Park by Steve, on Flickr

Such a deep purple they're almost off the visible scale. I tend to think of them as sort of 'mirror' Jacarandas. While Jacarandas herald the start of Summer, Tibouchinas signal its end.

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#1372167 - 03/04/2016 21:09 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Nice pic Steve. I can't quite feel Autumn yet. The weather is currently alternating between autumn and summer. In over a week that should change though. Soon enough winter will creep up on us.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1372202 - 04/04/2016 10:50 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Steve, nice photo, I love seeing them in bloom, certainly one of my favourites.

Next week I believe is a step down point in the weather, especially for us out here. We should have one or 2 days sub 20 max. We MIGHT just get near a frost next week, maybe a near miss but not far away now. smile

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#1372241 - 04/04/2016 17:32 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5328
Loc: Dural
Steve,

That is a beautiful photo with such vivid colours.
I love the Tibouchina. It always reminds me of autumn, which is my favourite time of the year.
When I see tibouchina flowers, I know winter is on its way.
Besides the excitement it brings me, it is also a beautiful plant when tended to correctly.
I first saw, then learnt about, and then planted my first tibouchina about 30 years ago.

Homer.

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#1372318 - 05/04/2016 10:55 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DaveM Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9881
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I've really only known about them the last few years, stunning when in flower. smile

Proper fair dinkum Autumn will become established from about Monday/Tuesday next week out here. The heat will finally be flushed away to the north. grin

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#1372319 - 05/04/2016 11:15 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 674
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
The endless summer just keeps rolling on around here. Only signs of autumn are the walnuts and chestnuts being ripe for harvest.

If the 26C maximum forecast for Wednesday comes off, it will likely be the warmest ever experienced since European settlement in these parts. We are experiencing a string of 20C+ days in a row very rare for here, where the mean April max is 15C, and days over 20C are uncommon (at least they were until now). We wont see a day below the April mean maximum until next Monday. Even worse is the ongoing dry, exacerbated by abnormally high temperatures. No decent rain has fallen for 2 months and the models suggest the dry will continue for at least the next 2 weeks.

We felt lucky for having escaped the worst of El Nino over summer, but now it is getting a late revenge.

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#1372556 - 07/04/2016 13:40 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
DerekHV Online   shocked
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 864
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Finally some genuine reprieve from the relentless Indian summer, looks like autumn may finally have some say now.

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#1374694 - 03/05/2016 18:11 Re: Autumn has arrived in NSW [Re: DaveM]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3672
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Autumn has sort of arrived but it's running about a month behind the calendar. In some years I would have brought the heater out by now.

So in Sydney this year, March was high Summer, April temperatures were close to the March average, while if the forecast is correct, the weather for the first 10 days in May would be close to what you could expect for the first 10 days of April (except sunnier).

Away from the coast, nights have been getting a bit chilly, especially in the traditional cold hollows like: Camden (4.0, i.e. 39F, what I call cold); Campbelltown (4.8); Richmond (5.9); and even Canterbury, only 12km from the CBD (7.4). Sydney Olympic Park dropped to 9.8 on each of the last two mornings, the first sub 10 since Sept 29. Even OH's positively tropical 12.8 was the coldest there since Sept 29.

Deciduous trees are still keeping to schedule:

Autumn Colours by Steve, on Flickr

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