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#1080459 - 24/02/2012 17:30 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: nitso]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
the up drafts are now starting to form a centralized pattern repeated since about 2 days ago previously the pattern had been around the png then as the trough moved south they became less centralized and moved around more, the tropical low is still jumping though, and i doubt the potential other than history of kimberly being more likley is any higher from cyp to broom atm

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#1080499 - 24/02/2012 18:52 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1579
Loc: Palmerston NT
Well imo i reckn there is a very weak area of Low pressure well inland of the Kimberley coast. We had fog here this morning so air movement is non existant.
Almost "doldrum" type weather but what is unusual is that the satellite map looks like a circulation to the west north west of Kununnurra but radar doesnt back that up. Our rainfall, cloud types etc makes it seem that we are already in the midst of an inactive monsoon....27mm in 30 mins yesterday says to me the atmosphere is incredibly unstable but TC development imo is very unlikely as the MT looks to have begun forming along the coast and with law of averages will only move south and subsequently limit TC development...

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#1080913 - 25/02/2012 11:47 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: JimmyGray]
Struth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/12/2010
Posts: 48
Loc: Goonellabah NSW
some lovely convection building up in the GOC

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#1081958 - 27/02/2012 18:25 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Struth]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
looks like we have a developing system just northeast of gove, and considering the area has been showing cyclongenis for about 2 weeks now its about time!

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#1083960 - 02/03/2012 04:40 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
the developing tropical activity has now moved to the western top end side with squally thunderstoms starting to set in

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#1084458 - 02/03/2012 23:15 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
GFS ensemble is keen on a low in the GOC early next week.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
It then bounces very quickly to Cairns.
EC is not particularly interested but then again I'm not surprised after their record within that region recently.


Edited by boomer (02/03/2012 23:15)
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#1085048 - 04/03/2012 12:25 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: nitso]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
.


Edited by Raindammit (04/03/2012 12:33)
Edit Reason: no where near the GOC or NT.

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#1085118 - 04/03/2012 15:50 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Mathew]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
Southern trough has reached so far into the tropical australia is has stopped any of the pressure waves from froming tropical cyclones as they have had to always move into lower pressure aroung 130e to about 140e for the past week and either side has remained high pressure this has reduced the chance of any low pressure cells falling below 1000hpa. Cyclogensis continues over the northern goc under the damping influence of the southern torugh.

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#1085135 - 04/03/2012 16:16 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
.


Edited by Mick10 (04/03/2012 20:46)
Edit Reason: off topic
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1085310 - 04/03/2012 23:40 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: boomer]
boomer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/11/2010
Posts: 3558
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: boomer
GFS ensemble is keen on a low in the GOC early next week.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
It then bounces very quickly to Cairns.
EC is not particularly interested but then again I'm not surprised after their record within that region recently.




Well then again…
The EC deterministic is now bullish
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

…while GFS and CMC ensembles are still showing interest in the GOC

GFS http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

CMC
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Agree… it’s a touch confusing
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#1085816 - 05/03/2012 18:11 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: boomer]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
now we have a dry air ts cluster sitting in the northern goc

still more interesting than the spinning blobs on the se qld coastline smile

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#1086008 - 05/03/2012 23:53 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shwvgmsw.html

12s 140e is getting some decent circulation happening moving west over water

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#1086269 - 06/03/2012 18:33 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
the low pressure centre has now gone tropical and is moving across the top end coastline, a 200km wide storm front on satellite is developing and moving west

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#1086624 - 07/03/2012 16:35 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: @_Yasified_shak]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Yep %100 there is some nice developing at the moment in the GoC water at the moment.



Edited by Mathew (07/03/2012 16:35)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1086627 - 07/03/2012 16:41 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Mathew]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
It's looks like there is a few nice low over hear NT at the moment developing you can see on google earth what the chance of these one of developing into a Tropical Cyclone over the next few days?
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1086630 - 07/03/2012 16:44 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Mathew]
PVW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/12/2010
Posts: 2406
Loc: Thuringowa, Townsville QLD
Mathew please check for yourself rather than always posting,
http://www.bom.gov.au/nt/forecasts/tcoutlook.shtml

Quote:

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 7 March 2012

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Thursday: Very Low.
Friday: Very Low.
Saturday: Very Low.

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#1086633 - 07/03/2012 16:49 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: PVW]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
You can tell by those few blobs developing hear NT as well GoC water on Google Earth that why I have post the Images to showing you.


Edited by Mathew (07/03/2012 16:54)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1086634 - 07/03/2012 16:50 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: PVW]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I make sure I check a few time or more just to make sure that is all.
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 740.4mm > 52.62mm - 113.22mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 26.1mm month 60.6mm / 12.9mm

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#1086687 - 07/03/2012 18:49 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Mathew]
Breezer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 309
Matthew plenty of cyclogenisis is happening in the gulf, as you can see the pressure waves have already sped across to 100E where a tropical cyclone is now forming. It should be soon that the pressure waves generate something a bit closer, the atmosphere just happened to be more conductive further west as we only just had the southern trough exit the goc.

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#1086690 - 07/03/2012 18:55 Re: Northern Territory & GOC Tropical Cyclone Season 2011/2012 [Re: Breezer]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7860
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
In all honesty, the NT is going to see a broad area of LOW pressure over the next few days and even EC's latest output has a LOW forming to the west of Darwin in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf before slowly developing and pushing back onto Darwin. So potentially Mat may be onto something early. Time will tell but possible WA crossing with a significant system and who knows maybe another closing in on Darwin at the same time.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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