Does sound good indeed! Would be great if it came off. So many people down here and I'm sure in your neck of the woods would be over the moon.

And I'm guessing the boreal relates to Aurora Borealis?

:cheers: Will

"boreal" has latin origins; ie boreas; god of the north wind.
Aurora = latin; dawn ; goddess of dawn.
Aurora Australis; Aurora of the southern regions.
"australis"; of the south lands

Aurora's have a similarity to the spreading light of dawn hence the name.

http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindec ... bleCookies

Warm SST anomalies in the southeast Indian Ocean increase the odds for above-median rainfall over southwestern WA into the early part of winter.

This outlook may worsen if a rising trend in the Indian Ocean dipole mode index over the past month, including a cooling the tropical southeast Indian Ocean, continues. The certainty in the Indian Ocean setup typically increases during April and May.

Issued 11 Mar 2009

A Negative IOD would mean Cooler than normal Ssts in the South Eastern Indian Ocean so I think that may decrease the chance of average rainfall for SW WA. At the same time Ssts NW of Australia in particular around Sumatra, Java and the Top end are warmer than normal which would increase the chance of average rainfall or more through SA, Vic and Tasmania, Central Aus, Southern NSW & parts of Northern WA.

"Helltoria" Johno, I don't think it is quite that bad a state!

Haha Ian.. Well it was a month or so ago when all hell broke loose but yeah probably time to rename it

No Ian Vic's a beautiful place, but like us its weather is sucking really really badly! And really affecting moods of the general populace.
Have been thinking of changing the website name to hillsdrought! Watchya reckon?

A silly question for better minds than mine. It seems to me that the oceans are the driving force behind what's happening to us. (solar not withstanding of course). And behind all this is the ebb and flow of warm and cold pools of water influencing ultimately the precipitation patterns that and lets be honest, are the only part of real weather that really matter, determining quality of life and basically at the core the carrying capacity of a system. (not withstanding frozen wastelands oof course!!! LOL)
Anyway I seem to be digressing, seeing as the oceans drive us, is there a cyclical land based interaction that maybe lags behind the ocean effects. For eg droughts in southern oz as a result of ocean interactions leaving bare soil that heats up and holds that heat and exacerbates the problems, even in the oceans. Wildy stabbing here I have no idea.
So its a cycle within the cycle, both dependant on each other with one lagging behind the other. With all this ocean talk I just wonder if such a land based cycle exists on the side.
Sorry if this has been discussed and sorry also for the rather random way I presented it. Lack of sleep from the new baby in the house is leaving me wandering ina fog for most of the day LOL LOL

Tim, to fit the mood, how does "no'hope'nhill's" sound! :wave:

Thanks for the link Vlasta.

Well, I've been playing the animation for a while now, and all I can see of great significance for the IOD is a growing and intenisfying pool of cooler SST's in the lower Indian Ocean that extends over about 20 degrees of lattitude, and nearly 50 degrees of longitude and seems heading our way. I can't see how this bodes well for rainfall in Victoria in the near future. Deep sigh.

Relax M in M!
The IOD does not start to settle down until about mid April and only becomes stabilised by as late a mid May or even later so lot's of water under the bridge before that.
[ With puns like that? :rolleyes: ]

Makes me sound like a chocolate lolly ROM! At least that would make me a "Smartie"! Or should that be, "Relax *with* Max! Cheeky grin! You're not the only one with a punishing turn of phrase!!! :p

We share that first name hence the liberties taken :cheers:

And should have added that it appears that we both like to amble around in that great blue vault looking down on those mere uncomphrehending mortals far, far below us and all this sans engines!
Mines a plastic fantastic so look us up at the aerodrome [ weekends ] next time you are passing through.

M in H.

LOL mate, maybe its appropriate lol

Geez, there's the most pathetic, little, strung out cloudband that stretches from the that TC S of Java across the continent and down SE of Tas at the moment. You know you could almost call it a NW cloudband if you squint... :p

:cheers: Will

Oceans are the go for predicting the weather, HR, but bare earth does mean hotter temps and less moisture, and vice versa, so there are effects there.......this would explain why it takes a while to consolidate a dry to wet changes or wet to dry change in the weather often, as the landscape takes a while to respond to the wetter or drier spells via the vegetation and ground cover.
Hills of Hopelessness, Hills of Despair
Hills of Desolation, Hills Rain No More,
Hills Rain...What's That, Hills of Scorched & Bare Earth, Hills Dam Dry...Take your pick of those mate!

I have noticed that Melbourne scored significant rain about a week ago, and that it coincided (or within a few days) with the growing "hot spot" off the Western coast of Australia showing on the NOAA SST charts around then (peaked in the image from 12/3). There was also a strong "cold spot" West of, and adjacent to it in the Indian Ocean south of the Bay of Bengal, but around the same lattitude as Australia.

I've also noticed that the rain has ceased again, and that the NOAA charts show a decaying and cooling of the same hotspot.

I'm going to watch with keen interest the further progress of the SST's showing in the NOAA charts!

You're catching on real quick, Max!

Could you provide a link to the NOAA SST charts? I currently use Unisys and Weatherzone, but other sources would be helpful.

NOAA SST charts
Archived charts back to 1996 are below the calendar box plus other info including SST animations.

Other sites are the humble point and click CSIRO marine site for local Australian coastal SST's.

The deep water moored TAO buoy system

The deep diving 3000 free floating ARGO float system