As the Low has a high chances of turning into a Tropical Cyclone by early next week, it's time to start a specific thread for it.

Current 3 day outlook from the BOM:

Potential Cyclones:
A tropical low lies off the Pilbara coast approximately 470 kilometres northwest
of Karratha in the vicinity of 18S 113.5E. It is possible that it will develop
into a tropical cyclone during Monday but it is more likely to reach tropical
cyclone intensity later in the week. This system is not expected to cause gales
in Pilbara communities during Monday or Tuesday but the risk of a coastal impact
increases during the week.

Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Monday :Moderate
Tuesday :High
Wednesday :High

Current wind warning:

Coastal Waters Wind Warning
For Port Hedland to Coral Bay
Issued at 10:40 am WST on Sunday 11 March 2012

Synoptic situation
A tropical low lies offshore northwest of the Pilbara coast, linking to a trough which extends across the far west Pilbara coast.

Strong Wind Warning
Port Hedland to Cape Lambert
E/NE winds 20/30 knots. Squalls to 45 knots with thunderstorms. Seas to 2.5m. Swell to 1.0m.

Strong Wind Warning
Cape Lambert to Coral Bay
E/NE winds 20/30 knots, reaching 25/33 knots offshore. Squalls to 50 knots near thunderstorms. Seas to 3.0m. Swell to 1.5m in offshore western waters.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm WST Sunday.

It looks like the WA coast will get its wet season and all in this next week or so. EC saying borderline severe at the moment but each consecutive run has upgraded it since it first went up so who knows?

Expect considerable flooding at least with such a slow movement forecast!

Really hoping this one doesn't come banging on Hedland's door on Saturday, that's the day I fly out back home to Qld.

Looking like its potentially gonna be a pretty large system

Might have a couple of NQld cyclone chasers over that way tomorrow or tuesday. Good to see some action again and I hope it forms into something decent for you all. Wet Season hey, what a novel idea. I wonder when ours will start

All the signs of being a BIG thing, even if not all powerful it could result in a LOT of rain being dumped on mainland

this is looking like a cyclone yasi sized system in regards to area of gales, obviously too early to tell on its strength just yet but it will be one wide system.

From a footage side of things I'm very excited! What will this system be called?

Lua and Mitchell are the next two names so depending on what NT system does vs Pilbara one will determine the names they get. I'm thinking Lua.

its a race with the 'territorians' to the Lua name! Think ours will be Mitchell by about 12hrs or so

Lua or mitchell

I just looked up what Lua meant and apparently she's a roman goddess. I think she's bombed out then and will get a shock turning up on the Pilbara's doorstep. Not to mention the western top end aswell. lol.

No doubt she will panic and head off to sea now lol.

Wow… the EC deterministic really rocks on this one
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

GFS not quite as punchy… but yeah… that’s over 80 runs between them
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/e...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Nothing as definite since Yasi

Yeah it does look pretty wild with the EC model run. I posted this in the other thread before it was renamed but I will put this in here again for the records down the track.

Massive!!!

Maybe she's going to come ashore to Visit " The Pilbara Princess's " ..... Or she's just looking for a spot with a heap of Single Blokes .... Being Roman and all , they were into that Orgy Type of Thing ..... Roman Goddess or Not , she'll be carrying a " Wide Load " sign across her A... if she's anywhere near as big as what EC is progging ..... Wet too ...... ( maybe too far ) .

But then again, here's the latest BOM version
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml

So it seems i may have to take my post bak .

" was a little too ( lounge ) for this serious thread " ;-)

OR it just means that Roman Goddess's have far more of an Inkling for the JBG at this time of Year . heheheh

lovin that EC prediction.. didn't log into the forums until I saw that, been a shoddy cyclone season thus far.

Hi,
I'm new to Broome, I'm from Tasmania, and thus I'm unaware of what to expect with this tropical low forming.
What's the likelihood of it hitting land, and what sort of damage will it be capable of in the Broome area?
I've done a lot of reading and the BOM website seems to think land impact will be later in the week, however when will the low begin to increase wind and rain levels?
Thankyou in advance, I seriously appreciate anything anyone can tell me about this, as I've never been in a cyclone situation before.

Hard to say exactly what will happen but the key is preparation. Put a cycllone kit together with eveerything you will nedd to survive for at least 3 days without power. And do it before any possible impact is immenent so you don't have to fight the crowds at panic buying time. A coastal crossing seems very likely at this stage although potential strength is still a bit of a mystery. At the moment it is looking as though it may come in as a cat 2 system but these things can develop very quickly so it is best to assume that it will be worse(at least that way if it surprises you then you will be prepared). Someone like Popeye would be best able to inform you of potential damage as he knows the topography of the area and that has a big effect on the damage that can be caused.