Hi Mel and cheers Brett. As long as this cyclone doesn't hit direct on Broome they are usually interesting events to experience. Big surf, lots of rain, strong winds, fast moving clouds, trees and branches blowing over around town, people driving around looking at things.

If it was looking likely that Broome was to get a hit its a bit different story, Heaps of final preparations around your property, removing shadesails, putting things away, taping windows getting supplies for possible power outage and no doubt a heap more.

At this stage though Broome appears (according to the models) to be avoiding the main damaging area but no doubt we will get some strong winds anyway from the monsoon surge. But saying that never say never especially considering only a few days ago those same models had Broome in the hot spot. I would be watching these forums and keeping up to date. The crossing point will be finetuned down to an area that can be focused on and determined if you (and me) are at risk.

What does keep Broome or atleast 80 mile/Bidyadanga still in the equation is where the EC model develops the system in a few days time. Currently according to JTWC it lies 210NMiles(380kms) north of Exmouth. EC on Thursday gets it winding up 'WELL NWEST?' of its current location and Im talking 5-600kms further out. From that point EC have it tracking down towards the Pilbara coast crossing between Karratha and Hedland somewhere (not totally sure).



So what I am saying is where it finally starts to get its act into gear will determine its likely crossing area. If it forms where they say then what they have is possibly correct. If it doesn't push so far out NWest then it brings the Hedland and Eighty Mile areas more into the firing line. Another thing to note is the size of that monster LOW pressure system to its south before crossing. That in my eyes if it comes through at the same time will drag this cyclone South at the last minute. It may not get there in time though.

I would have to laugh it it started forming so far out west that it missed the WA coast. A bit like IGGY all over again.

Just to throw a bit more speculation into the mix! Up until this point we have hitched our wagon to the EC prog, assuming that it has got it right from a long way out while all others didn't have a sniff of this system. That scenario has now changed with all models agreeing. The point is if we include the other models ACCESSG has the crossing a lot further up the coast and GFS has a crossing, (at the moment), straight on top of Broome. I guess it's a question: do we start to include all models and projected paths or stick with ole' faithful,(EC)?

Yeah totally agree with that. Give them all a chance from here on in. Especially considering its still 5-6 days AAWWAAAAYYYY!!!

I'm going with the model that sends it to Hedland. Cause I'm greedy and want to see it.

Gee I just got a bit confused where to post. LOWS popping up all over the place. Why do I have this feeling things may not be as straight cut predictable as we think over the next week. Interesting times ahead. Lua may go to the NT and WA may end up with Mitchell. Not looking forward to Southern Oracles description on Mitchell. That has me scared to think about. lol.

Plenty rain starting to happen over in the west around Broome?

Yeah its been a good couple of weeks rain and storm wise. Last nights downpours were very heavy. Emptied 64mm out of the gauge this morning. Its got that real wet season feel to the air but still a lot cooler than that NOV/DEC build up time. We may just continue to get the afternoon evening storms for the next few days before this system gets a bit closer and we get those real monsoon showers streaming over. The further away this system crosses though the lesser effect rainfall wise though. The last Monsoon up this way a month or so back dumped over 700mm up the coast here so any randon spot could be in the firing line really.

Best thing is EVERY model is now lining up for a coastal crossing between Onslow and 80 Mile. This makes a change for once.

Ktown and Hedland are definitely in the firing range at the moment by the looks.

Longer and later into the week the better it is for us suckers who have to work weekends lol!!


Though the rain has been nice and it's been the slow soaking rain too which is going to be really good for greening things up and just look forward to more!!

Given the time remaining before it crosses I would be getting ready if I lived anywhaere from Onslow to Broome. Gonna be a hell of a chase for the boys with possibly some big distance to cover after the NT/Kimberlea system

MMMMMMMMMM Sh!te. Like I said this morning I guess EC is hedging their bets from run to run depending on where it initially originates and commences its track to the ESE.

That is probably half way along 80 mile beach now. Eighty mile caravan park, Pardoo, Sandfire.

This is making me feel extremely nervous! As someone who has only ever experienced a bushfire and nothing more serious, I'm feeling extremely hesitant about this cyclone. I'm staying in a hotel at present, by myself. When is the predicted landfall date, and what sort of winds do these types of cyclones shown above mean for the area? Just heavy rain and heavy wind?

I'm clearly Tasmanian.

Dont get too worried yet MJane. Its healthy to worry about stuff like this though but as you can see from this mornings run of that model and mind you they are only models it has moved 600kms this way. Next one may be back the other way. Houses and hotels are meant to withstand pretty strong winds so we should be right in anything up to a CAT 3+. Beyond that I would imagine it would be getting a bit more full on. But with expected crossing of Sat means a whole lot can change in the next 5-6 days.

Tassie would regularly get strong frontal systems during winter. A big 975hpa LOW cruising the Southern Ocean in July is nothing to sneeze at. I guess people down there just take them in their stride as a reasonably common event in winter yet in the tropics its a big deal being a cyclone. There may be a few differences but you may have experienced a lot more weather wise than what you think.

It would still make a mess of Broome though and I for one don't particularly want one at this time of year just as the tourist season is firing up. I guess you cant choose when to have one though and if its going to happen its going to happen. Hedland seems a little more prepared lol.

Alright, well I'll try not to panic too much. I'm glad I've found somewhere where I can be comforted out of my innocence. The largest wind gust I've experience would be 50km/h, and that made front page of Tasmanian papers, so I'm very inexperienced in this area!
As long as the cyclone doesn't get too strong, it'll be a nice change, and the rain will be much appreciated to cool things down a bit!

I'm from an area in rural Tassie where there isn't a whole lot of wind, we're quite sheltered from most weather events, so I've been quite lucky for the last 17 years! But being thrown into Broome, especially alone, is a scary experience! I am however, looking forward to the rain.

I love Tassie. Been there twice over the last 3 months. Could live there easily over summers and combined with winters in Broome would be the ultimate lifestyle. Would miss all this tropical weather though.

I spent my whole childhood in Tassie, and I'm definitely glad to enter the tropics, I'm loving the warm weather, although the humidity gets to me.
I am worried about the cyclone though! It's all very intimidating for me! I'm from Port Arthur, Popeye, so I tend to avoid the massive winds.

Hi Melaniejane
Just keep up to date with whats happening from the people in your area but I can sympathise with you being an ex Victorian myself and having gone through Cyclone Yasi in the north earlier this year.
Main thing is keep up to date with the BOM information have some things ready in your kit and mostly don't under any circumstances go outside if the cyclone is making landfall in your area.
If you are in a Motel then the owners there would be very up to date with what to do, go and talk to them, but above all don't panic as Cyclones can change direction quickly and it may not happen in your area at all.
Keep safe all of you over there.