Sorry guys, my first thread for a big weather event, so correct me if wrong. Looks okay by the looks so far but a lot can happen over night. Fingers crossed it gets more better than worse. looks like a nice system with some nice afternoon convective storms/showers east of the ranges and probably the Mid-North as well, might be good for any of you chasers but i'm staying put. Adelaide should see a bolt out of this or even hear a rumble from some nocturnal stuff or even a stray storm from the east who knows?! I'd say most people should get between 1mm - 10 mm

Haven't had a huge look at things but looks not too bad. Not the best timing in the world but good enough, really hoping its not good between 10am till 3pm as am stuck inside mostly.

Also kinda secretly hoping my 10:15pm flight to Darwin tomorrow IS cancelled by the pending Cyclone Mitchell up there so I can see some damned bolts!! knowing my luck it won't, bolts will drop as I'm taking off and then the cyclone is all over in Darwin lol.

But yea, nice shear, nice trigger and SHAPE (important) with solid lift. Perhaps a tad dry but that's good for nice high based bolts. So def keep eyes out for general isolated showers and thunderstorms. Watch for some castellanus, especially later.

TS

As others have mentioned, less moisture about. A chance for a rumble or two for Adelaide but not much rain in it. I'd expect 2 - 10 mm for me. (OCF has 11 mm but i thinks maybe thats a little keen

posted on the other thread...

from Teck
BOM Forecast: Adelaide area
Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms from midday.

Looks about right now.... instability builds up quickly over central areas tomorrow, definite chance for Adelaide in the arvo, but still like the early evening now for some nice big bolts just after sunset... (Pity I am stuck indoors 7.30-9.30 lol)

from SD
Adelaide's best chance will come after dark with Nocturnal Cooling with high based storms forming in some insane high shear with help from the Trough/front which is due in around 10pm-12am tomorrow night..

Showalter looks good as mentioned already

I wouldn't totally give up on a storm for Adelaide in the arvo tomorrow, still looks ok

btw, steering winds will be from the NW-NNW turning WNW-NW in the evening on the Trough, higher based storms may move more West-East late evening...

So who's starting the new weather event thread????? ...Done good Rolling Thunder

Aviation forecast looks ok...

2000FT TROUGH NEAR CLEVE/PT LINCOLN AT 4:30am, WHYALLA/CAPE BORDA AT 7:30am. ISOLATED
SHOWERS SW OF PORT NEILL/MT GAMBIER, EXTENDING THROUGHOUT FROM 10:30am , AND INCREASING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 4:30pm E OF COWELL/CAPE BORDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FROM 10:30am

Yer all looking quite promising.
This arvo I reckon best chance between 3pm and 6pm, with another lot overnight after about 9ish...

re. rainfall.... do not be surprised to get 10mm+ if you get a decent storm. All models have upped the precip forecasts this morning. There might be a few dumpers around. On the other side, there's a chance you will get nothing if everything misses you.

Happy Birthday John.

Some nice storms approaching west coast of KI... (sliding SE though)

Hmmm, I hope there is some moisture in those storms crossing K.I. at the moment Tim.

I know DENR were doing a controlled burn in Cape Gantheaume conservation park today, I reckon they might be putting that on hold and heading over to Flinders Chase for a fire if there is not some rain in that stuff going over now.

Small cell down near Goolwa, I could see the CU building in that area from my place.

Getting windy here at the moment, Northerlies around 30kph with the change still many hours away.

Looked pretty dry Matt. Only 0.2mm at Cape Borda.
Line is building northwards and moving across KI now and wouldn't surprise me if it ends up being a line right up YP in an hour or so... and then heading our direction. Reckon maybe 3ish for something here?

I reckon earlier Tim a bit of cell convergence is happening ahead of that line which indicates good shear and instability. Next line behind for tonight is very active and worth watching after sunset. Getting alot windier too.

yep, couple of cells toip of YP but still cant see much here still till 3ish..

Few cells going up east of ranges now as expected, and that line is forming up the gulf by the looks and will probably all eventually join up...

Cant see how anyone around Adelaide region will miss out today....

Tell ya what... there's a stack of lightning in these storms by the looks.... not good for fires!

Interesting obs from Cape Borda Tim, only 23c and the RH is right up, no rain though so I'm surprised nothing has got going at all.

Nice stuff now crossing the Spencer Gulf, it really kicked up in one or two frames, from nothing to a decent storm. I think your 1500 time guess is pretty good for us.

Edit - Just spotted that cell out near Murray Bridge now too - looking good this arvo for everyone.

Lookin good I like the line to our west...isn't quite on YP yet but was that the one you were predicting Tim? Pretty good call if so!

nah it was pretty obvious to me anyway. I was prepared to call it just by the satpic and the fact there was already buildup to the north...

oh and make it 2pm lol...

Geez this looks upstairs at eliz high school! CU to the NW is going up heaps quickly. small cells coming down from YP will impact us first. Then hopefully that line in SG will get us later in the arvo.

Yeah looks pretty amazing to the north! Huge tower going up right on my doorstep (looks that way anyway)

You all reckon without my power, the antistorm. Causing all predicted storm activity to fizzle and die over the central Adelaide area. /snark

Actually, it is starting to get nice and windy now, and the radar is looking pretty sexy.

Had to happen, a scrub fire now reported on Stokes Bay road on K.I.

Some nervous CFS people currently watching the line near Cape Jervis as well.

My cousins farm not far away from that....
Depends how close it it to Stokes..