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#1091009 - 17/03/2012 14:28 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Heddyweather]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2633
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Hope Hedland communication networks remain on air

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#1091010 - 17/03/2012 14:30 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Heddyweather]
cyclonecece Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 7823
Loc: Brandon.. QLD..EX Karratha
Good luck to all in cyclone lua path.going to be massive damage to that coast line.Stay safe everyone

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#1091011 - 17/03/2012 14:32 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: cyclonecece]
stormchaser_jr Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2011
Posts: 64
Loc: Byford WA
i'll stay on as long as the communications are up, don't think we'll have too much problems on that front however

...hoping i don't eat my words

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#1091012 - 17/03/2012 14:34 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 4318
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I have been keeping in touch with the OCC fellas with updates and they are doing fine. Can sense a little adrenaline in their voices. But seem to be remaining fairly focused on what is happening around them. They just did a quick look up towards the Pardoo homestead and its getting fairly blowy now. From the east i think he said. Was getting hard to speak to them by phone with the building noise in the background. The chase car is secured in amongst the buildings apparently they are all cross steel framed between dongas are new and are rated one of the highest cyclone structures at CAT 5 295kms/hr. Its a very strong compound. I told Jason just before getting off the phone wind gusts from BOM are expected to be 270kms/hr in the eyewall and he responded 'yeah right'!!

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#1091013 - 17/03/2012 14:34 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: vpprt]
what the Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 07/03/2009
Posts: 38
Loc: Cambooya
Originally Posted By: vpprt
Seriously anyone who actively seeks this out is stupid.

Your probably right but these guys dream of these big ones. Im sure you will watch their footage in awe.

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#1091014 - 17/03/2012 14:36 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
camshaft Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/12/2010
Posts: 278
Loc: Cairns
Originally Posted By: Popeye
I have been keeping in touch with the OCC fellas with updates and they are doing fine. Can sense a little adrenaline in their voices. But seem to be remaining fairly focused on what is happening around them. They just did a quick look up towards the Pardoo homestead and its getting fairly blowy now. From the east i think he said. Was getting hard to speak to them by phone with the building noise in the background. The chase car is secured in amongst the buildings apparently they are all cross steel framed between dongas are new and are rated one of the highest cyclone structures at CAT 5 295kms/hr. Its a very strong compound. I told Jason just before getting off the phone wind gusts from BOM are expected to be 270kms/hr in the eyewall and he responded 'yeah right'!!


Any updates of their wind speed recording ? Do they look to be in the direct hit path of the eyewall ?

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#1091015 - 17/03/2012 14:37 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Cori Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 47
Botox haha.... enjoy Popeye...

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#1091017 - 17/03/2012 14:41 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Cori]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 445
Loc: Townsville
I honestly can't see where this thing is going to produce anything over 240kmph but we shall see.

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#1091019 - 17/03/2012 14:48 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 4318
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Updating this link for people. Speed this loop up with the > button on your keyboard.
OSCILMET RADAR LOOP

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#1091022 - 17/03/2012 14:53 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Redsky@nite Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 21/01/2002
Posts: 1412
Loc: Lismore by day / Wollongbar or...
240 or 270 km/ hr... Is there going to be much difference at the end of the day? Either way that's very blowy!!! Stay safe all... I'm enjoying the civility of this thread smile
_________________________
Red sky at night Sailors delight, red sky at morning Sailors take warning

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#1091023 - 17/03/2012 14:53 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Noname Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2011
Posts: 2104
Looks like she becoming a category 5 now as the eyewall thickening up according to the radar and the link popeye above!

Quote:
Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon.


I don't get it why say landfall in like 2 hours time? The eastern eyewall is like around 50km from the coastline now and its getting too close. Assuming poor effort from BoM for not getting information right on time.


Edited by MathewTownsend (17/03/2012 14:55)
_________________________
Blank.

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#1091024 - 17/03/2012 14:53 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Popeye]
Kiwijohn007 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 64
Loc: South Hedland
IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 24
Issued at 11:44 am WST on Saturday 17 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier,
including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts
of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and
Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western
Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern
Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

At 11:00 am WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 4 was estimated to be
185 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland
285 kilometres west southwest of Broome
moving south southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an
expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this
afternoon.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga and
will extend to adjacent inland areas later today, possibly north to Cape
Leveque including Broome and west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland
and Bidyadanga extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very
Destructive winds to 250 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone
centre as it crosses the coast.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne
areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara,
west Kimberley extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and
northern Goldfields later today and during Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including
Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected
this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high
tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland,
including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland,
Warralong, Yandeyarra and surrounding Pastoral and Mining leases need to go to
shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek
including the Town of Broome, Marble Bar, Telfer, Nullagine, Woodie Woodie, and
adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to
shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier
including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as
inland communities including Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and
mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency
kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and
water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern
Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 11:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 19.1 degrees South 119.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 23 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 250 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 932 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WST Saturday 17 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

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#1091025 - 17/03/2012 14:59 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Noname]
Bello Boy Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 4690
Loc: Bellingen NSW
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend
Looks like she becoming a category 5 now as the eyewall thickening up according to the radar and the link popeye above!

Quote:
Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon.


I don't get it why say landfall in like 2 hours time? The eastern eyewall is like around 50km from the coastline now and its getting too close. Assuming poor effort from BoM for not getting information right on time.

50km from the coast...moving S @ 23km/hr - sounds like two hours to me.
_________________________
www.bellingenweather.org

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#1091026 - 17/03/2012 15:01 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Kiwijohn007]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
Glad to know boys are safe, hubby recons it will be real nice and close to all the action, and probably as safe as it could be if you were going to cop a direct hit! Will get put to the test today, and think it may exceed their expectations, and get mighty breezy! So good luck! And everyone else the wait is nearly overtry to give Lua the respect that she commands, will save your but! Stay safe, stay inside! Good luck, !!! xx

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#1091027 - 17/03/2012 15:02 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Bello Boy]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 2458
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: BNE
Originally Posted By: MathewTownsend
Looks like she becoming a category 5 now as the eyewall thickening up according to the radar and the link popeye above!

Quote:
Remarks:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon.


I don't get it why say landfall in like 2 hours time? The eastern eyewall is like around 50km from the coastline now and its getting too close. Assuming poor effort from BoM for not getting information right on time.

50km from the coast...moving S @ 23km/hr - sounds like two hours to me.


lol. That's what I was thinking.

Homer

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#1091028 - 17/03/2012 15:04 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Bello Boy]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 2982
Loc: Brisbane
Take 45-50kmh off the maximum gusts on the western side of the eyewall given the forward movement speed is 23kmh. With maximum gusts to 250kmh I would suggest Pardoo where the OCC guys are will probably see maximum gusts of about 200kmh. I would suspect though that it will be more around the 180kmh mark or strong Cat 3.

Bedout Island which is currently only about 55km west of the eye is only getting sustained winds of 80km (translates to gusts up to 112kmh).

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#1091036 - 17/03/2012 15:15 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Locke]
princessweather Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 81
Loc: Ocean Grove Vic
Will she go 5, looks to be fair question?!

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#1091037 - 17/03/2012 15:16 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: Locke]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 134
Loc: Edmonton QLD
i must be addicted to this - my husband is vacuuming around me and folding up clothes (incorrectly) around me and yet i still can't move myself away from the laptop - haha..

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#1091039 - 17/03/2012 15:20 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: princessweather]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 890
Loc: Sth Hedland
Don't think so i think shes at her Max , With land interaction.

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#1091040 - 17/03/2012 15:23 Re: GENERAL CHAT - Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua (SIO, NW WA) 13/3/12 - 18/3/12 [Re: sswanss]
sswanss Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/12/2004
Posts: 890
Loc: Sth Hedland
Congratulations on the EC MODEL on the Forecasting Track of this system,they have been pretty spot on.


Edited by sswanss (17/03/2012 15:23)

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