Whilst 80 Mile Beach handled TC Laurence ok, I'm not sure it would cope so well with a direct hit from Lua which is a much larger system. I certainly wouldn't want to be there.

This is going to be a tough chase for OCC with some hard decisions to be made as to how much risk they want to take. When you've driven/flown halfway across the country to chase you probably want to observe more than Cat 1 strength winds.

I wouldn't say all by any means but it has been talked about enough over the last few years for me to remember it Maybe friction along the coast nudging it 10kms over. The usual wobbles in WA are towards the SW though (angle of the coast in a lot of places) If Lua crosses on a SSE trajectory I would imagine a wobble would be hard to achieve (trying to wobble up the slope of the coast = doesn't work?). Eye wall replacement makes them appear to wobble too. I wonder if Lua is a wobbler lol.

Interesting to see the wind distribution. Much stronger on the northern side of the sotrm but a massive area of 34kt winds.

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 230 nm [425 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]

Thanks Popeye and Camshaft. Yeah Lua could be a wobbler. I was just considering that within a fairly short period Lua intensifies into a cat 4 prior to landfall that there could be a fair chance of eyewall replacement and hence a wobble to the south.

What is the coastline like along there. ie. How flat is it? Just wondering how it would be affected by storm surge as if it does come in as a 4 I would imagine that any storm surge would be notable. JTWC has max significant wave hieght at 27ft.

Yeah I saw that too Brett Guy - wow a 9m storm surge?

My Bidyadanga prediction not looking so shaky now lol.
Still have a high down south, but closely followed by a low trough so interesting times ahead, again we sit and we wait...

Tav.....somehow I don't feel the 5pm shift will eventuate. Enjoy your rum



Good luck all in Lua's path or potential path. Looks like you are in for quite a ride. Stay safe, and hang on (as I'm sure you will)

I don't know if they are refering to Sea and swell combined or just the swell height but even if it is the latter I would guess at least a 3-4m surge.

Eighty Mile Beach has some of the biggest tidal flats in Australia. It goes out for a few KMS so its pretty flat. Heaps of migratory birds (was). Up to dunes at the high tide line. Tides are near still tommorrow so will just be sitting there building on it. I lady Freya Hoffmeister kayaked around OZ a few years back and I remember saving one of her photos of 80 mile and the water is just an insane colour cause of the tides. Heaps of big sharks there too.

The Great Northern Highway between Port Hedland and Broome is closed

So the OCC boys will be now stuck wherever they end up. Not really worth it in my opinion because if they are Stuck in Hedland and it crosses West of the town personally it wouldnt have been worth it or stuck at Pardoo or Sandfire, same deal crosses 80 odd kms away it would be a bit of a PITA!

Yeah 80 Mile is an insane place! 10m tides and the water is just like milk because the sand getting mixed up! Not swimming water but great Beach for fishing and Quadding.....bloody long drive too

what time can parts of the pilbara start feeling the effect of this cyclone??

and also - when the BOM cyclone advise and track maps talking about times are they referring to WST??

Yes weather. Times refer to WST.

Broome just copped a ripper of a storm just now. The whole town is in flood. Heavy Heavy rain. Been getting together some video stuff. The ocean is going nuts out there. Never seen it like it before and its expected to rise tonight to 7-8 metres and beyond tommorrow. Lua has some oommpphh. I'm not sure anyone wants to be in her path. Very beautiful squall lines across the ocean today. Moving very fast. Awesome!!!

Another incoming with lightning in half an hour or so. YEEHAHAH. Weather addicts dream at the moment.

Just before your post Popeye I had a looksee at the Broomecam. There was a noticble difference in the ocean movement, to when I looked 2 hours ago. Seriously......the whole town is in flood??????

WA , won't have the classic Topographical influence to a Cyclone near or at Outer wall landfall , ( its pretty low coastal plains ) . What i would say that provides an even bigger influence is the Shoreline provides a Strong difference in Air Temps , Humidity and the Like . Especially at Night and the closer to Exmouth the Variance in air temps over Land and the Ocean are immense . So i would put any landfall wobble down to this , as opposed to Topography . Although saying this , when the system is coupled with the Monsoonal flow , as such a occurence as now . The few days as opposed to a few hours of Precip's leading into landfall may lessen this somewhat on this occasion . !

On the topic of Eye wall replacement and wobble , i would say that dry air incursion would be more Frequent in that neck of the woods as opposed to the CS .

Looking forward to the video Popeye

one of the main weather stations to keep an eye on overnight as STC Lua will pass very close to or directly over is:

Rowley Shoals AWS

Lua is starting to look a lot better on the 1km VIS too! i wouldnt be surprised to see his eye start to open up overnight.