Jax...I tried to warn the boss at Cable Beach Caravan Park that we should not go down that road as i spent my first few months there trying to save the large Mahogony's that had gone over during cyclone Rosita in 2000. I spent a couple of months restoring these large trees with stakes/supports, many of which were still in place in 2004. When Yasi went through Qld last year a species of tree which was largely affected was the African Mahogony...a beautiful tree but becuase of there shallow rooting, unsuited to high wind prone areas.

Hey Dave I have been admiring how good that part of the park looks now. We have been here since 2001 and back then it had hardly anything. Its all matured now. Nice frangapanis and mangoes on the back fence line too that are big now.

Yeah Jax while 91 -98km/hr is no doubt strong winds I would have thought being within 150kms of it, it would be up into atleast 120+ range. Not sure it may ramp up big time if it gets a little closer.

I also just put some coordinates into Google earth and if you continued that line straight to the coast it would be where BOM has it. If you factor in a stronger Southerly push late in the run then Pardoo/Degrey River area is a potential spot. But I did find an old bottle of bourbon lying int he cupboard an hour ago and my vision is getting a little blurred lol.

Beer, batteries and Bourbon.... the three essentials of any cyclonic experience.

Ben Quinn from BSCH kindly made these GFS charts available. If you run through these it shows an interesting strong Southerly push prior to landfall. Surface winds.

Run them up to 925hp and 850hp and look how strong the winds get up higher 1.5kms up. the SFC, 925 and 850 buttons are in the top right and then run through the dates on the left to see the various outcomes.

BSCH GFS CHARTS BROOME - HEDLAND

Just thought I better bring down the shade sail.... Iv'e been to busy 'chasing' Lua on the computer screen but thought it might be time now! She's still steaming in with an uncomfortable amount of 'east' in that east south east movement for Broome. Amazing sound of the ocean. I'm right in the middle of about 5k's from the beach and it sounds solid.

I hear you Dave, shame the boss didn't. Hopefully they make it through this blow intact and still upright, it would be a shame to lose them to a cyclone hundreds of kms away.

You could be right about them birds Popeye, the barometer is still dropping, but now it seems, so is the wind. Hey, there could be some interesting beachcombing to be done after this is over, who knows what might be unearthed from the dunes.

Popeye...got those Mahogony's from Malcolm Douglas as seedlings, up to a foot high, spent months planting and installing irrigation...big job as you can imagine. Can't wait to visit Broome again as i saw some very interesting weather there.
Back on topic, i reckon that Broome could have been the place for the boys from OCC. I reckon that Lua is going to cross closer to Bidjadanga than the BOM track is showing. Am eagerly awaiting next update...interesting the larger area to the north of the system showing higher severity than the southern side, as Popeye indicated may be the case a couple of days ago.

Any one know why Bom brought out a track map at 10 pm with another due at 12??

Closer the system gets (dependent on intensity) the closer together warnings are issued. Makes sense doesn't it?

They had a flash warning (update)to include new areas under FESA's red alert. Included Pardoo and a few others that they left out in the initial update. Probably trying to make sure the OCC fellas stay put lol. I think they do go to 1 hr updates nearing landfall boomer.

Ahhh! thanks. thought it was strange.

From memory (which I must say on both occasions is somewhat inadequate... other things to deal with) with both Larry and Yasi the warnings were closer together, the closer the system was to making landfall.

Yeah Sepo, Ive got one more sail to pull down. Was trying to hold out so I didn't have to touch it but we decided tonight its coming down first thing tommorrow. Its a bugger to get down just about kill yourself when the ubolts let go.

Yeah it could be Boomer . So many things are done alittle differently from state to state but it all semms to work out.

Back up to Cat 4
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml

I Know models aren't everything now its right there off the coast but that GFS crossing matches up closely with the EC model and also the JTWC/Navy Model and BOM are now the outliers with a crossing as far east as they are saying. I wonder if BOM will bring it back into line closer to Pardoo/Degrey/even Hedland again or stick with their push east.

Just when all the Hedland crew have gone quiet its possible you guys will still get the undercut winds (made that up) coming from the offshore flow as it crosses to the East of you guys by 100-120kms. Sorry Im garbling now might stay quiet till the midnight update. lol

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 11:36 pm WST on Friday 16 March 2012

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier,
including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts
of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and
Jigalong.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara,
the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior
including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

At 11:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 3 was estimated to be
345 kilometres north of Port Hedland
415 kilometres west northwest of Broome
moving east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the
east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between
Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning
to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and
possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland
and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in
the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near
the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas,
adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and
inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western
Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the
very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast.
Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with
damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during
Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland,
including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South
Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek
including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral
and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier
including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as
inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding
pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries,
food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern
Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.


Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 11:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 118.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 22 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 954 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Saturday 17 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

Looks wild hey.

Very

Not sure if I really believe that GFS model prediction. Looks like further up towards Bidgy will certainly cop it. Glad to hear today that a lot of people were evacuated. Must have been why it was so quite there a couple of weeks ago - down near the creeks on the beach just the sound of the wind. No birds! they must have known it was coming....! Wasn't there some discussion a few days back from the QLD crew about birds flying out? lol

To put a Cat 4 into perspective (although right now Cat 3 Lua is probably at the low end of a likely Cat 4).
Around the core sustained 10 minute wind speeds of 160 to 200kph will occur.
Gusts up 279kph are possible.
That's serious.