Also worth noting that in the storm's path are the far southern islands of Okinawa where there's a big US Marine Corps Air Station and bases.

Tropical Storm threat forecast for the TOKYO area (based on JMA data) during Thu 21/6. Guchol will be weakening at this time as it moves over colder waters and enciunters vertical wind shear but it may bring destructive 3-sec gusts of more than 125km/hr to the exposed parts if the coastline near TOKYO.

Refer to the 5-day JMA forecast:
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/12045c.html

Can someone please post the JWTC forecast/tracking map. This information is not accessible when in China and I want to see it

hey Steven,

JTWC site hasn't worked for me for a while(anyone know what the go there is?) but I will pull it from the NAVY/NRL TC pages.

Track map below(clickable thumb), do you want the text buletin also?

That track map is pretty much model consensus if anyone is intyerested.

I can update these roughgly every 24 hours for you Steven, if you want?

Let me know and stay well.

Lee

I hope the track deviates and this does not pass directly over TOKYO City next week. The city is well built and the Japanese are well prepared but the population affected by this storm will be at least 50,000,000

Edit: English typing on my iPad is tedious
Clarification: Tropical Storm or Typhoon (not severe threat to Kanto prefecture)

at 0900Z / 6pm JST / 5pm CST / 7pm AEST
JMA reported the central pressure to be 950HPa and INTENSIFYING
the gale diameter is now 740km and the satellte imagery shows a well organised storm with good symmetry. I don't think it will make it to Super Typhoon status but for June this one will really pack a whallop.

The public portal to the US Naval Observatory website on which the JTWC webpages are hosted, has been down for awhile.

In the meantime, hope the multi-model ensemble plots from last night's 12z runs also help.

Strike probability (%) map from a grand ensemble of the GFS, EC, CMC, NOGAPS (US Navy) & UK ensembles showing the reasonably tight consensus & high track confidence:




Ensemble mean tracks from the UK, NOGAPS, EC & CMC ensembles & their various combinations which also shows the tight consensus:

JMA at 9pm JST has pressure of 935HPa and still intensifying. Super Typhoon forecast with a severe strike on southern Japan. If this keeps up it may be a cat 1 typhoon when it reaches TOKYO.

at 1300Z JMA reported pressure of 935HPa and forecast further intensification
945HPa forecast south of Japan

A few things to watch with this system are:

Its rapid acceleration NE'wards when it gets close to Japan means a fast forward translation speed which in turn will add significantly to the wind speeds on its E & SE flank if it landfalls. Conversely, wind speeds should be lower (in comparison) in areas on its northern side.

Possibility of storm surge for exposed low-lying coastal areas (see below).

Chance of a 2nd system forming off southern China, some possible Fujiwara interaction with Typhoon Guchol if it gets close enough behind it albeit maybe just a bit of a wobble, before sliding NE in a similar path to Guchol. But this 2nd system currently looks less intense & far more elongated/distorted than Guchol.

Probability of typhoon formation in the 48hrs from 18z Sat generated by the GFS ensemble:



Storm surge modeling from the European JRC:

I am now staying at Guangzhou, China. Today the weather was beautiful with mostly blue sky with some light cloud and the temperature was 32C. Friends in Hong Kong tell me they have had a lot of rain from the tropical depression in the South China Sea.

Tomorrow night I fly back to Brisbane

Tropical Storm Talim [994HPa] located SW of Hong Kong and almost stationary.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1205c.html

If the forecast happens and it moves on the JMA trajectory western Taiwan will get more heavy rain. Recently Central Taiwan has been badly hit with flooding. Heavy rain along the coastline for the Guangdong and Fujian provinces in southern China

Hong Kong Observatory continues with signal no 1
http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm

As Talim intensifies further I expect HKO to use signal no 3
Unlikely they will use signal no 8 which signifies a significant threat to Hong Kong (and all govt workers, banks and schools close and get a day off work)

Landfall has occurred in Japan as a strong category 2 typhoon
(This would be classified as category 3 in Australia)

TY 1204 (GUCHOL)
Issued at 10:45 UTC, 19 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N34°10'(34.2°) E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 65km/h(35kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more SE190km(100NM) NW110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM) NW330km(180NM

Tropical Storm Talim could cause serious flooding in Taiwan by Thursday evening
Recently Central Taiwan has been badly flooded. The last thing they want is more torrential rain.

Typhoon Guchol has made landfall in Japan near Kyoto. I haven't seen any news reports yet but there is likely to be major damage. Tropical Storm Talim is forecast to bring more torrential rain to western Japan. There could be severe flooding in some parts of Japan by the weekend.

For southern China (Fijian province) high rainfall is forecast from Tropical Storm Talim during the next 48 hours. The highest rainfall totals should be to the east of the system (in Taiwan)

There's a good piece re Guchol on the NHK World website here:
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120619_33.html

Tonight's 10:47pm METAR at Tokyo's Haneda Airport had 49kt winds gusting to 66kt.

Link to Taiwan Rain Radar:
http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

Tropical Storm Talim is bringing a lot of rain to parts of Taiwan. Some impressive 24 hour totals are likely; though i am sure this won't compare with the infamous 2009 Typhoon Morakot which dumped 2,900mm in 24 hours over Central Taiwan.

Details for Tropical Storm Doksuri at 7pm AEST, 5pm CST/PHT
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1206c.html

Direct hit forecast for HONG KONG. Storm diameter now is 880km.
System intensifying. Should hit HONG KONG below typhoon strength.

TS 1206 (DOKSURI)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 27 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°35'(16.6°) E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

Hong Kong Observatory Tropical Cyclone Track Information
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/currwx/tc_gis_e.htm

The 10pm AEST, 8pm CST/PHT update from JMA still has the system passing directly over Hong Kong.

JMA information for Thu Jun 28th at 7am AEST and 5am CST/PHT

TS 1206 (DOKSURI)
Issued at 21:50 UTC, 27 June 2012

Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°25'(18.4°) E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)