Christmas Day Supercell Outbreak, Melbourne

Supercell #1



Supercell #2



Supercell #3

Supercells #4 and #5

Feb 27 Mystic Lake, Vic



Mar 15 Melbourne (local intercept)

Note :
La Nina = less storms but more rain
Neutral = More storms and less general rain
El Nino = less rain but more intense storms

paulcirrus
You say:

"Note :
La Nina = less storms but more rain
Neutral = More storms and less general rain
El Nino = less rain but more intense storms"

I wonder, can you back that up with data?
For my site, I have made a graph that compares monthly rainfall with the record of swings between El Nino and La Nina, based on NINO3.4 ocean temperatures
Monthly rainfall matches the southern oscillation after a fashion, usually (but not always) fitting best when the oscillation is strong.

It should be quite simple to compare data on storm intensity with NINO3.4 in the same way. Has anyone done that yet?

The comparison might also show that our stormy weather tends to be ahead of NINO3.4, as seems to be true for rainfall.
If so, NINO3.4 cannot be used to predict either rainfall or storms.

I believe this generally true for SE Qld/NE NSW but not every where in Australia. In fact, it would seem reasonable to see an increase in storm frequency/severity further inland/south under la nina.

I think there is a paper looking at the SE Qld storm season vs SOI so it might be worth digging that (hope I am right there). Unfortunately, storm reports (ie. strong wind gust/large hail) are heavy biased towards eastern Australia, in part due to the greater population density. This likely throws a major spanner in the works when doing statistical analysis on observed severe weather phenomena. Might be worth giving this a read-

Title: A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments
Author(s): Allen John T.; Karoly David J.; Mills Graham A.
Source: AUSTRALIAN METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANOGRAPHIC JOURNAL Volume: 61 Issue: 3 Pages: 143-158 Published: SEP 2011

There is quite a substantial spatial modification of storm environment frequency due to La Nina and El Nino (and neutral conditions) - Unfortunately you will have to take my word for it, I have a second paper coming on this topic, its just in review atm. Funnily enough over the whole of Australia there is not a huge difference in the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments in any ENSO phase - its just one aspect of the complex tapestry of severe thunderstorm occurrence. I will say anecdotally that inland and southern areas tend to do well storm wise during La Nina thanks to the additional moisture which is advected over the Southern Plains.

The paper regarding SOI you are looking for MC is by Clair Yeo (2005), while other notable papers on this matter have looked at Sydney regionally (Leigh and Kuhnel 2001, Kuhnel 1998). To quote a little review from my work:
"In Southeast Queensland the number of severe thunderstorm days were found to be 60% more likely in neutral ENSO years than La Nina years, while El Nino was found to be the second most favorable pattern for severe thunderstorm occurrence"

Might be of interest ; From "Trove"

The Sydney Morning Herald (NSW : 1842 - 1954) Thursday 13 February 1896

Not sure why you have posted this here ROM - It has little to do with the 2011/2012 Storm season? Sure you haven't got the wrong thread?

Just thought it might be of interest as an example of what has happened in the past in the way of severe weather of various types.
Not trying to prove a point or anything like that. Just posted it for interest sake, thats all.

My highlight for the 2011/12 season was the hailstorm on the 15th of October 2011. The season in general was a mixed bag of hit and miss, mainly miss, along with some teasing of what could have been some brilliant storms only to die along the ranges.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=3ona23Te5bU

My storm Season was largely a frustrating one, with many miles put down, but no great chases to show for it.Dont get me wrong there were a couple of good/exciting moments, but overall it quite dissapointing,and all of my chases were in the poor to ordinary range . My best chase of the season scored a 6/10, which makes it my poorest season ever. There were a couple of brilliant storms in SE and E NSW,but the convergence line often sat over no mans land,making these storms unchasable.




(above) My first storm of the season,and probrably one of my best. And only 4kms from home.





A spectacular dryline supercell near Bathurst- November 30 2011. This could've been one of my best ever chases, instead it was a what could've been chase, where we witnessed several great supercells,but never quite got into position for them. The barber pole storm near Parkes after dark revealed some insane structure as it was flashing like a strobelight,and it produced hail close to cricketball size.




This is a storm I got near Ulladulla on Boxing day. Riding the southerly change.



A severe storm approaching rapidly. Oberon NSW. This storm produced 100-110km/h winds in which I was in the middle of.



The no mans land supercell near Nerriga. This storm contained one of the biggest black cores I have ever seen on Sydney radar.



Another no mans land supercell,this time near Braidwood.

no where near as good as some of the footage the pros capture,, but likely to be my best experience of the poor season just gone.. enjoy.

almost fried..

taken on sunday night 08-04-2012 at 650ish pm at hexham shell servo near newcastle..

Nice, pingtang! Some great structure on the fourth pic there!

May as well add in my pics from the line that made its way through the south west coast on Good Friday. I just happened to be holidaying down there and got a good view of the shelf cloud as it moved in from the ocean...

nice catch Greg! and Michael (Ping) I feel for you with those no-mans land storms, but a few keeper shots nonetheless.

The November 30 2011 event is certainly up there. Seems like I called the storm season over a bit too early. Another event worthy of inclusion-

8th of April, 2012- Asquith-North Turramurra: probable tornado. Hail to 5-6 cm report was reported further south.

Some places had a really good season like ballina then others had a shocking season, it was annoying for me to see so many awesome set ups that just had one thing missing or miss timing of a change, it was a fail season for storms awell always next year

i cant decide my favourites out of these 2 shots lol
feb 21 super cell as it reached logan (was a weak little thing when it hit)

or
october 15 2011 (it weakened as it reached logan and then got stronger again after it passed)

Great shots by people here. VIC certainly had a great season. NSW and QLD people had an average one.. so not a high quantity this season. That said, quite a few quality days mixed in just so far away, with me myself bagging the highest number of SC's I have had since the 04/05 season.


8th August - Offshore lightshow

20 September - Offshore lightshow Ulladulla


30th October - Highlight of season 4-5cm hail near Coolongolook from a big HP supercell

7th November - Supercell in Western Sydney

17 November - Massive day this, couldn't chase very far due to work, but huge supercells on MNC. Got an ok storm near Cessnock that had strong winds and small hail and a huge RFB



Dec 11/12 - Big chase out to NWSP then to NR. Got a beastly guster on the 11th near Gunnedah, and the backend of a supercell on the 12th near Coraki with 3-3.5cm hail.

A couple of decentish days in Jan and Feb with 3cm hail and strong winds near Toukley, plus a nice guster at the Entrance the previous day, but no pics..A couple of nice lightshows in Jan but stuck at work mostly..




8th April - Another highlight. Big classic SC near Singleton, with amazing lightning show at night, strong winds and small hail. Got home to find a tornado had gone through my suburb at night, damage was amazing, with a clear damage path.