Hi Matthew, I'll try to make this as brief as possible.
Start with the SPC Covective Outlook:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Look at a decent surface chart to get a "very" broad level appreciation - notice how on this run there is a complex low over Rockies moving eastwards over Nebraska and hints of a triple point. A vigorous surface stream off Gulf of Mexico - the latter being the source of energy.http://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.phphttp://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=namerica&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=24&focus=mh
Next go to a good set of models like:http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=home&page=about
Look at SBCAPE around 18 to 00Z (time) - if you look at the GFS model for Sunday 00Z ( late afternoon evening Saturday in mid west) you can see a lovely field of high CAPE from Mexico to Nebraska - however chasing highest CAPE is a big mistake in the USA. That sometimes means highest CAP as well. But I use SBCAPE to see position of drylines and dryline bulges and get a generally appreciation of potential.
Next go through the wind direction and strength from surface to 500mb. Sticking to Sunday 00Z still notice that the stronger shear is towards Oklahoma/Kansas/Nebraska, so that rules out Texas for me.
Look at Helicity - this is turning. Note that best helicity does not always combine with highest instability, but we seem to have interest around east central Nebraska, however it is relying on moisture to be transported. Nebraska does however have that for-mentioned triple point in play. Kansas however may be safer best near the dryline with higher CAPE.
.........and those are decisions you have to make.
This is a difficult one...guaranteed storms in Kansas, or risk lower CAPE for potential nasty in Nebraska?
I would wait a another model run, also review todays action.
At this stage Great Bend, Kansas for me as a starting point with view of chasing NE, that may change.